7/11-AP 8th: SWLY's race-Handicapping

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

agree with that but only if you are the clear front running speed or a multi dimensional horse who can press the pace from a few lengths back, not sure this horse can, at least she never has before.

did you miss the last race?

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

did you miss the last race?

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

she sat 2 lengths behind the leader and passed her at the quarter pole. Relaxed nicely off the pace

[Riot]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I just am looking at the pp cj provided, but I do remember hearing the call on the radio a bunch and it sounded like she dug in gamely after being passed?

Point, go to racereplays and watch her last two races, they are very interesting. In the last, she proves she's a race horse (very gutsy, you really should see this), in the one previous you can see Willie rate her, and she responds very kindly, down the back stretch.

I love my TG's, but watching the races tells you what you really need to know, sometimes.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Scherer entry - both turf to dirt (poly) angle, either capable, using underneath in tri's & super's.
Powder River - along time between drinks for this one, steps back up in class, doesn't look a factor here...not using.
Miss Peachtree - even race last time out and may have needed it, no early foot...but could land a piece, using in all exotics.
Lady Eloquence - stretches out for the first time, two efforts here were good, could be the longshot to using underneath in tri's & super's.
Pure Classy - this one scares me the most because of connections, could see her running late if the pace is quick, can see her 2nd or 3rd choice...include in all.
Green Door - showed speed in maiden breaker going a route, don't think she'll improve much more off that effort...super's only.
Bid on Dancer - the "rank outsider", "not in this lifetime".
Gazzella - the likely favorite, the horse to beat...but with price - would try to beat her even if Sumwon wasn't in the race.
Sumwonlovesyou - speaks for herself...both on and off the track!

The plays -
Sumwonlovesyou #9 - "heavy" on the win end.
Gazzella #8 / Pure Classy #5 / Miss Peachtree #3 - all in the "2" hole
Scherer entry #1 (either half) / Lady Eloquence #4 - rounding out top #3
Green Door #6 - in super's only

9/8/5 - 9/8/5/3- 9/8/5/3/1/4/ - 9/8/5/3/1/4/6

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff

The plays -
Sumwonlovesyou #9 - "heavy" on the win end.
Gazzella #8 / Pure Classy #5 / Miss Peachtree #3 - all in the "2" hole
Scherer entry #1 (either half) / Lady Eloquence #4 - rounding out top #3
Green Door #6 - in super's only

9/8/5 - 9/8/5/3- 9/8/5/3/1/4/ - 9/8/5/3/1/4/6

win 9
ex 9 w/ 3,8
tri 9 w/ 3,8 w/ 1A(only),2,3,7,8
saver ex: 3,8 w/ 9

Not afraid of the 5, think she will be too far out of touch with the early pace and not be able to make it up, even with her late run.