Early thoughts on Belmont Saturday Card

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't know how I will resist my urge to play longshot Minister's Joy in the Manhatten.

He's been on my watch list ever since he lost a little allowance race on the turf at Calder a few years---it wasn't the toughest of fields even for that level at Calder---but I thought he was off the charts in defeat, for that class level.

I've always thought you might see the best from him in fast paced, 10 furlong turf race---and I expect him to trip out, and hopefully he's good enough to win or run 2nd. I've certainly chased him in spots he didn't fit as well in from a race-shape standpoint.

The two name horses in this race have some questions they need to address...and the two other good ones might be overbet...

* English Channel flopped in Dubai last out.

* Sky Conqueror is legit--and will be tough--but he's never run outside of Toronto or Kentucky...and the time to get the value on him was probably last out.

* Better Talk Now didn't pass his rabbit until a few jumps before the wire last time out.

* Like with SC, Cosmonaut is legit, and should factor into the outcome, but he might not offer as much value as you'd like to get.

I know my case for MJ might be pretty flimsy, and I look like I'm just reaching for a longshot---and I'll admit that the horse has been on my radar for a real long time---but I think he's one of a just a few horses, in the stakes, on the Belmont undercard---whom I believe really has a decent longshot look.

[DerbyCat]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't know how I will resist my urge to play longshot Minister's Joy in the Manhatten.
....

I know my case for MJ might be pretty flimsy, and I look like I'm just reaching for a longshot---and I'll admit that the horse has been on my radar for a real long time---but I think he's one of a just a few horses, in the stakes, on the Belmont undercard---whom I believe really has a decent longshot look.

I'll be playing MJ, too. One of the first things I learned on this board was that Shug/Phipps horses are well placed when it comes to stakes and graded races - they don't enter unless they believe they can do well. Shugs got 4 horses in on Saturday and I'm betting at least one will win - hopefully it's MJ at a nice price (but I'll be playing the other 3 as well )

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't know how I will resist my urge to play longshot Minister's Joy in the Manhatten.

He's been on my watch list ever since he lost a little allowance race on the turf at Calder a few years---it wasn't the toughest of fields even for that level at Calder---but I thought he was off the charts in defeat, for that class level.

I've always thought you might see the best from him in fast paced, 10 furlong turf race---and I expect him to trip out, and hopefully he's good enough to win or run 2nd. I've certainly chased him in spots he didn't fit as well in from a race-shape standpoint.

The two name horses in this race have some questions they need to address...and the two other good ones might be overbet...

* English Channel flopped in Dubai last out.

* Sky Conqueror is legit--and will be tough--but he's never run outside of Toronto or Kentucky...and the time to get the value on him was probably last out.

* Better Talk Now didn't pass his rabbit until a few jumps before the wire last time out.

* Like with SC, Cosmonaut is legit, and should factor into the outcome, but he might not offer as much value as you'd like to get.

I know my case for MJ might be pretty flimsy, and I look like I'm just reaching for a longshot---and I'll admit that the horse has been on my radar for a real long time---but I think he's one of a just a few horses, in the stakes, on the Belmont undercard---whom I believe really has a decent longshot look.

Minister's Joy was certainly compromised in his allowance race at Belmont,- they went a ridiculous 1:14 4/5 for the 6F on basically rock hard turf, before coming home in :34 flat. He certainly has an explosive late kick but given the lack of any real pace in here (Red Zipper?? are you serious?) I think he might be up against it again to deliver his maximum performance.

I agree with your analysis of the contenders, particularly English Channel. As much of a fan I am of him, the first-off-Dubai is a very large obstacle.

I have a suspicion Cosmonaut will be way overbet based on the trouble in the Dixie, however he hasn't performed his best going more than a mile and an eighth.

If I take a shot in here it'll be on Shakis, who overcame that ridiculous pace in the aforementioned Minister's Joy race with the guess that Lasix was the difference in his performance from Dubai. He should get first jump and if the closers sit too far back, he should be able to hold them off.

[slotdirt]

Dunno...Remarkable News ended up winning the Dixie, and he's a pretty darned good horse. Cosmonaut was much the best in that race if not for the breakdown on the backstretch. I do agree that Cosmonaut will be way overbet given the circumstances in his last.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Dunno...Remarkable News ended up winning the Dixie, and he's a pretty darned good horse. Cosmonaut was much the best in that race if not for the breakdown on the backstretch. I do agree that Cosmonaut will be way overbet given the circumstances in his last.

I agree that Remarkable News is a seriously talented horse, however how much did hurdling the ill-fated Mending Fences actually cost him? 2 lengths? 5 lengths? 10 lengths? It was an incredibly athletic move by the horse and Prado to continue on, but I'm leaning towards the former.
He does have a significant pace advantage in here but I think he's very suspect at a mile and a quarter. If he stays at the ML of 5-1 I might be more interested but he won't.

[philcski]

In the 4th is one that's been on my watch list for a while- Quick and Easy. Broke his maiden in good time first out at Saratoga making up 7 lengths in a 5F race. Was off until the inner track, in which he really never had a chance- was stuck with wide posts and traffic, and an ill designed route try; finally when he returned to the main track he got a setup I was hoping for, and ran 2nd at 10-1 (with the dead weight Carrero on him) behind a very decent Contessa NYB, Stunt Man. They then tried him in the Screenland and he ran into the best NYB 3YO Bustin Stones and never really had a chance. Returning to the N1X level, he gets Albarado, an inside post, and is 15-1 on the ML. Very, very live at that price.

[Mortimer]

Philski.




Learn to read a form already.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

Philski.




Learn to read a form already.

I'm trying.

I ordered "Handicapping for Dummies" off Amazon the other day but it hasn't gotten here yet. Hopefully it'll be here by post time for the Belmont tomorrow.