Curlin - help here

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Some good stuff here... I can't help but laugh.

I hope that this horse is as good as you guys believe him to be. I'd love to see another triple crown winner... with that said, if he loses and loses big, I'm going to have a field day reading some of these posts. If he wins, I'll be on here eating crow.

I think at this point gross superlatives in either direction are unwarranted. He's been flawless so far, no doubt, but I don't think we really know just how good he is. He may very well finish tenth, and he may very well scamper off to win by four.

If he is just that good, then perhaps this is the last time we'll get good odds on him. But if he's not and his wins have been because of other factors, then we'll learn that in short order. I honestly don't see a reason why anyone on either side of the opinion will need to "eat crow," because it has nothing to do with you disliking the horse or anything -- just that there is a very legit case made for both sides.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I think at this point gross superlatives in either direction are unwarranted. He's been flawless so far, no doubt, but I don't think we really know just how good he is. He may very well finish tenth, and he may very well scamper off to win by four.

If he is just that good, then perhaps this is the last time we'll get good odds on him. But if he's not and his wins have been because of other factors, then we'll learn that in short order. I honestly don't see a reason why anyone on either side of the opinion will need to "eat crow," because it has nothing to do with you disliking the horse or anything -- just that there is a very legit case made for both sides.

Because I'm tossing him. By me actually tossing him and not using him ANYWHERE, that makes for a crow eating fest if he wins. I'll be the one wearing the dunce cap.

[pointman]

Cajun, I don't really see why anyone would have to eat crow, everyone is just expressing their opinions. In my mind the Derby is one race that you can get odds on horses and prices on exotics that you don't in other races. I just don't agree with those that argue that he should be tossed because his odds are not good enough in this race. Sure, you may play against a horse in a race because they are 3-5 and there is no value. But is 4-1 or 5-1 no value? I can see those who wish to toss Curlin because they believe he doesn't have enough experience, the post is bad, or they feel he hasn't faced any real competition, etc. But if you think the horse is good, and I honestly don't see anyone in this field that has as much potential upside as Curlin with tactical speed, why toss him at these odds? We all know that in a 20 horse field anything can happen, there are a million ways to lose this race, only one way to win. I do not guarentee he will win, but I will have him on my tickets.

[randallscott35]

I think the Curlin supporters will get 6-1 or better. Just a hunch.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I think the Curlin supporters will get 6-1 or better. Just a hunch.

where?

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

where?

Look if you feel Street Sense will go off the fave by a good margin and Nobiz will be taking lots of money, he will drift up and be 5-1 or better. Again, just think people seem to have more questions for him that other horses.

[Cajungator26]

Kinda off topic, but it sounds like Justin Dew is tossing Street Sense and Curlin. LOL

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2007/blog/justindew/rules

[todko]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

where?

Tell me and we'll both know. If I can get 6-1 I'll be extremely happy.

If this horse runs back to his previous he'll win easily.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

I think the Curlin supporters will get 6-1 or better. Just a hunch.

I feel like you do, that Curlins odds move up when the real wagering begins. I don't know about 6-1, but I am skeptical of him going off as the fave. I think SS will be the one people gravitate towards more so than Curlin when they start taking a real close look.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I feel like you do, that Curlins odds move up when the real wagering begins. I don't know about 6-1, but I am skeptical of him going off as the fave. I think SS will be the one people gravitate towards more so than Curlin when they start taking a real close look.

I'd bet everything to my name he doesn't go off the favorite. Barring a scratch of Street Sense. Not a chance.

[lemoncrush]

Remember that a ton of the money going into the pool is from novices, or people that play once or twice a year.
They may not pay attention to historical trends...
Since Curlin is the morning line favorite, he'll get a ton of money based on that alone.