Best Derby bets

Originally Posted by pgardn

Curlin has been lightly sprinkled with track in his last race. He has never been in a pack, never. I cant take a horse that has never ever run in tight quarters. ANd if he gets a mid range post he might be 4 to one. You can have it my friend.

To say he's been lightly sprinkled; Okay that is objective. To say he has never been in a pack, Okay that is also fact, assuming you are correct here.

To say "I cant take a horse that..." Okay that is a fact too, albeit it only applies to you.

What I dont get is assuming what will happen if he does get into a pack. ths horse, Curlin, seems to be relaxed as he goes by other horses. It might bode well, we've seen plenty of horse that dont look relaxed and bad results are probably more likely. I just dont think a horse should be tossed on the basis of speculation. If there is something about the horse that suggests he might have a problem then by all means, have at it.

Originally Posted by easy goer

To say he's been lightly sprinkled; Okay that is objective. To say he has never been in a pack, Okay that is also fact, assuming you are correct here.

To say "I cant take a horse that..." Okay that is a fact too, albeit it only applies to you.

What I dont get is assuming what will happen if he does get into a pack. ths horse, Curlin, seems to be relaxed as he goes by other horses. It might bode well, we've seen plenty of horse that dont look relaxed and bad results are probably more likely. I just dont think a horse should be tossed on the basis of speculation. If there is something about the horse that suggests he might have a problem then by all means, have at it.

The problem is the odds my friend. There are unknowns about the horse. I will state it more clearly. Since the horse has never encountered traffic problems, the chance that he will encounter problems in the Derby are much higher. Do you disagree with this?
Now take my opinion that he will either be the favorite or going off the second favorite, hell no I wont take him. Its a risk v. reward problem as always. And his risks are higher that he folds compared to a horse like Scat Daddy (who has been in very tough quarters and races). All of this about probability and chance. When most people state their views very little is actually a fact. They are mostly opinions based on observations. So what I have observed about Curlin is that he has never faced adversity therefore the likelyhood he will fold is higher than a horse that has faced adversity and not folded. Is this really that hard to understand? Because Curlin has passed horses with composure means nothing compared to what he will face in the Derby.

Now I will admit to you the horse appears to be incredibly professional for a horse that has run only 3 races. And he looks like he very well might be the most talented animal in the whole bunch. But I feel like experience counts for a whole lot in a race like the Derby. Luck counts for a whole lot more.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pgardn

The problem is the odds my friend. There are unknowns about the horse. I will state it more clearly. Since the horse has never encountered traffic problems, the chance that he will encounter problems in the Derby are much higher. Do you disagree with this?
Now take my opinion that he will either be the favorite or going off the second favorite, hell no I wont take him. Its a risk v. reward problem as always. And his risks are higher that he folds compared to a horse like Scat Daddy (who has been in very tough quarters and races). All of this about probability and chance. When most people state their views very little is actually a fact. They are mostly opinions based on observations. So what I have observed about Curlin is that he has never faced adversity therefore the likelyhood he will fold is higher than a horse that has faced adversity and not folded. Is this really that hard to understand? Because Curlin has passed horses with composure means nothing compared to what he will face in the Derby.

Now I will admit to you the horse appears to be incredibly professional for a horse that has run only 3 races. And he looks like he very well might be the most talented animal in the whole bunch. But I feel like experience counts for a whole lot in a race like the Derby. Luck counts for a whole lot more.

none of these horses have faced traffic like they will in the derby, so I don't know why you would apply it to one horse, Curlin.

Going from nine furlongs to ten, I much more comfortable going with the faster horse, Curlin, who is not slowing down as much at nine furlongs as other horses like Scat Daddy.

If you are giving credit to Scat Daddy for facing diversity and not folding, then do you also give demerits for when he faced diversity and folded?
Circular Quay, No Biz, Street Sense, Drums of Thunder, they all handled him along the way.

sure he has managed to win his last two but I'm not sure how tough those races were. Notional, Stormello, Chelokee?

big question mark in my mind.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

none of these horses have faced traffic like they will in the derby, so I don't know why you would apply it to one horse, Curlin.

Going from nine furlongs to ten, I much more comfortable going with the faster horse, Curlin, who is not slowing down as much at nine furlongs as other horses like Scat Daddy.

If you are giving credit to Scat Daddy for facing diversity and not folding, then do you also give demerits for when he faced diversity and folded?
Circular Quay, No Biz, Street Sense, Drums of Thunder, they all handled him along the way.

sure he has managed to win his last two but I'm not sure how tough those races were. Notional, Stormello, Chelokee?

big question mark in my mind.

LOL!!!

Sorry Jim... watch the Breeders Cup Juvy again... the Juvy was the only race Scat Daddy finished off the board and IMO it wasn't that horrible of a race for him. Maybe I'm nuts and need to go and watch it again myself, but that's what I saw.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

LOL!!!

Sorry Jim... watch the Breeders Cup Juvy again... the Juvy was the only race Scat Daddy finished off the board and IMO it wasn't that horrible of a race for him. Maybe I'm nuts and need to go and watch it again myself, but that's what I saw.

what do you find so funny? all of these horses have beat Scat Daddy. I didn't say he was off the board every time.

I have watched the juvy many times. What should I be looking for if I watch it again? No it wasn't horrible, its just that Scat Daddy did not measure up to several of his rivals on that day, and all of them plus others will be in the Derby.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

what do you find so funny? all of these horses have beat Scat Daddy. I didn't say he was off the board every time.

I have watched the juvy many times. What should I be looking for if I watch it again? No it wasn't horrible, its just that Scat Daddy did not measure up to several of his rivals on that day, and all of them plus others will be in the Derby.

It was the way you put it... "they all handled him."