Best Derby bets

[Thunder Gulch]

Scat Daddy is the one I'm really having trouble. I think he's really talented, but is he Thunder Gulch, or is he More than Ready? Both would give you all they had, but only one of those would get the distance. If I can get 10-1 or better, he's on the tickets somewhere.

[slotdirt]

I am curious about the pace of the race. Who's going to the front and how fast? I could see a horse like Hard Spun finding himself on the lead by default and War Emblem-ing the field. That is, if Stormello does what we think he'll do and Teuflesberg's connections find it in the heart to skip the race.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I am curious about the pace of the race. Who's going to the front and how fast? I could see a horse like Hard Spun finding himself on the lead by default and War Emblem-ing the field. That is, if Stormello does what we think he'll do and Teuflesberg's connections find it in the heart to skip the race.

It could be interesting. And what about NoBiz? he doesn't seem to like to rate very much.

So far the death by speed is there. And that puts Nobiz is some trouble in my mind. He cant hold back from all indications. I think Nobiz is a monster of a horse but he just does not get it. If he wins by running up front the whole way then hats off to him. Maybe later on. He burns in Derby imo.

If Curlin can find a clean run like he has in his prior races, big, big trouble for all. But I will stick with the four horses I mentioned pending post positions and odds. This is always a win/place bet for me. No exotics. Too much slime getting into the money with the added furlong and lack of restraint by young runners. And I have a hard time figuring the slime that slips in. I usually get Giacomowed out of anything.

[Rileyoriley]

Originally Posted by pgardn

So far the death by speed is there. And that puts Nobiz is some trouble in my mind. He cant hold back from all indications. I think Nobiz is a monster of a horse but he just does not get it. If he wins by running up front the whole way then hats off to him. Maybe later on. He burns in Derby imo.

If Curlin can find a clean run like he has in his prior races, big, big trouble for all. But I will stick with the four horses I mentioned pending post positions and odds. This is always a win/place bet for me. No exotics. Too much slime getting into the money with the added furlong and lack of restraint by young runners. And I have a hard time figuring the slime that slips in. I usually get Giacomowed out of anything.

I've always felt Nobiz was going to be the Belmont Stakes winner.

Originally Posted by Rileyoriley

I've always felt Nobiz was going to be the Belmont Stakes winner.

In order for this to happen some big changes in this horses running style "will" are going to have to change. He cant be tugging on the lead until he gets tired and finally relaxes. That wont work for a mile and a half.

[Rileyoriley]

Agreed. Just feel he needs one more race in those blinkers to learn to relax. Unforetuneately, the Derby is his next race.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Curlin may very well be the most talented animal but having faced no difficulities I got to forget him in the upcoming stampede.

If Curlin can find a clean run like he has in his prior races, big, big trouble for all.

I'm intrigued by this often used approach. It seems that if a horse has done all that's been asked of it, the only kink in its armor is that it hasn't faced some sort of adversity (or, more precisely, an impossible to win from trip). And the implication seems to be that if it does, it won't win (or even peripherally that perhaps one or more of the others has faced adversity and fared better.)

Let's face it, NONE of these horses can win with a poor trip. Probably every single one (with the possible exception of Scat Daddy) needs the race to go its own way for it to win. But that's not saying much because that pretty much sums up racing in general.

Not saying that I think Curlin wins the race, although, IMO, he's been the most impressive horse this year, but why would I try to beat him HOPING that he gets a poor trip? That's actually rhetorical cause if the odds are right, it's the proper play. I realize that 3rd time HAS to be the charm with Albarado.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm intrigued by this often used approach. It seems that if a horse has done all that's been asked of it, the only kink in its armor is that it hasn't faced some sort of adversity (or, more precisely, an impossible to win from trip). And the implication seems to be that if it does, it won't win (or even peripherally that perhaps one or more of the others has faced adversity and fared better.)

Let's face it, NONE of these horses can win with a poor trip. Probably every single one (with the possible exception of Scat Daddy) needs the race to go its own way for it to win. But that's not saying much because that pretty much sums up racing in general.

Not saying that I think Curlin wins the race, although, IMO, he's been the most impressive horse this year, but why would I try to beat him HOPING that he gets a poor trip? That's actually rhetorical cause if the odds are right, it's the proper play. I realize that 3rd time HAS to be the charm with Albarado.

And thats the point. This is a stampede. There have to be some horrible trips. I dont see a Smarty Jones that can get out of the gate incredibly quickly, immediately find himself a good spot, run at a very tough pace holding a nice clean position, and have more than enough for the end. There is no horse with this capability. Curlin and Street Sense do not have this capability imo, especially Street Sense. They all need some luck. So I am going for the longer odds given that every horse needs racing luck. There is no horse that I can see, based on prior races, that will just lay it down and make the race his. Smarty JOnes and Barbaro did not suprise me. I did not know if they would win, but the fact they came in and dominated was not a shocker. I dont see any horse doing this in May.
The only horses with the physical capability of doing this are Nobiz and Curlin imo. If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it. If Nobiz (who has the style) does this people will say look at this monster of a horse, everyone could see he was getting better at understanding his job after the blinks and going deaf, I wont. I will be suprised.

Look at this::

Originally Posted by pgardn

If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it...

What is objective about this? You imagine a scene where Curlin hates being behind horse. I imagine a scene where No Biz sprouts wings and flies over the final quarter; what good is that?

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by pgardn

And thats the point. This is a stampede. There have to be some horrible trips. I dont see a Smarty Jones that can get out of the gate incredibly quickly, immediately find himself a good spot, run at a very tough pace holding a nice clean position, and have more than enough for the end. There is no horse with this capability. Curlin and Street Sense do not have this capability imo, especially Street Sense. They all need some luck. So I am going for the longer odds given that every horse needs racing luck. There is no horse that I can see, based on prior races, that will just lay it down and make the race his. Smarty JOnes and Barbaro did not suprise me. I did not know if they would win, but the fact they came in and dominated was not a shocker. I dont see any horse doing this in May.
The only horses with the physical capability of doing this are Nobiz and Curlin imo. If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it. If Nobiz (who has the style) does this people will say look at this monster of a horse, everyone could see he was getting better at understanding his job after the blinks and going deaf, I wont. I will be suprised.

Neatly everything you say about Curlin, You could change the name to Barbaro last year. In my opinion SS is the one that is the least affected by post because he will just take up and take the shortcut. SS problem will come in the stretch with holes clogging up and horses blocking path. Borel has made some great choices in the past races but the pressure is on as far as finding a hole or going around. I dont think any are faster than Curlin . Curlin is probably the best at using his speed and relaxing without the jocky having to work too hard at restraining him. I dont think he will need the perfect trip . The big problem is the size of the field could produce a horible trip such as squeezed to far back out of the gate and get hooked wide in first turn. It seems that some are letting there dislike for Assmusen cloud there opinion of this horse. The X factor is the jockey mis timing of his run and watch one of several deep closers beat him to the wire. Dominican.SS,SD, CQ,Tiago,ags and maybe AGS.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pgardn

And thats the point. This is a stampede. There have to be some horrible trips. I dont see a Smarty Jones that can get out of the gate incredibly quickly, immediately find himself a good spot, run at a very tough pace holding a nice clean position, and have more than enough for the end. There is no horse with this capability. Curlin and Street Sense do not have this capability imo, especially Street Sense. They all need some luck. So I am going for the longer odds given that every horse needs racing luck. There is no horse that I can see, based on prior races, that will just lay it down and make the race his. Smarty JOnes and Barbaro did not suprise me. I did not know if they would win, but the fact they came in and dominated was not a shocker. I dont see any horse doing this in May.
The only horses with the physical capability of doing this are Nobiz and Curlin imo. If Curlin pulls this off, people are going to say I should have seen this coming, look how he had dominated. I wont be one of those. I can see him getting covered up and hating it. If Nobiz (who has the style) does this people will say look at this monster of a horse, everyone could see he was getting better at understanding his job after the blinks and going deaf, I wont. I will be suprised.

I think Curlin is good enough to get good position and make his own trip. Of course, I don't have anywhere near that much confidence in Albarado.

As for NoCount:

I found it interesting that for the first time in his life he was able to actually run straight through the stretch. The blinkers/earplugs did the job. The problem here, of course, is that the jock didn't seem to realize it. I mean, he's only been on the horse for all his races and guess it didn't sink in that the horse

a) was on the rail --- which is where he wants to be (before and after the changes) and

b) unlike previous attempts, he was running straight

So Cornelio decides to start a steady stream of left handed whipping. This, of course, negates the INSIDE advantage the horse had throughout the race. He starts drifting, carrying AGS out with him (what inside bias, says Johnny V)
and almost blows the race. Almost loses to a runt. Very late stretch, Cornelio wakes up, stops with the lefty stream and starts riding/steering the horse towards the inside again. And he takes off and preserves the win.

So, he got the bias dream trip for most of the race, and almost lost the race to a plug when he lost the advantage. I'd say, NoCount, not only can't win with adversity but he can't win without a dream trip.