Curlin v. Cobalt Blue

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I agree completely. To me Curlin showed much more yesterday, with a robust wide rally, looking rather professional for the most part.
I don't think we learned that much about Cobabt Blue, it does remind me of some of Brother Dereks wins last year. When you have comfortable pace and position all to yourself the effort gets flattered.

Add me to this list.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Both 1 1/16 miles:

Curlin 1:44.76
Cobalt Blue 1:42.6

I know Santa Anita is faster than Oaklawn, I have not compared similar races on the same tracks. But damn over 2 seconds, very diff. tracks.

Ark runs much slower than SA. You can't compare them like that.

[slotdirt]

I'll be throwing both of these horses out come Derby day, especially Curlin. I'm sorry, horses with less than four career starts coming into the Derby just don't win on the first Saturday in May.

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Ark runs much slower than SA. You can't compare them like that.

I know this as I stated. But over 2 seconds Randall? I did not realize the tracks were that different.

[jjf1031]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'll be throwing both of these horses out come Derby day, especially Curlin. I'm sorry, horses with less than four career starts coming into the Derby just don't win on the first Saturday in May.

Agree. Above posts are right that Cobalt needs to be tested and going to Illinois gives him a full field but wont SA Derby be a bit more competitive also? LIquidity, Ravel, King of the Roxy, Air COmmander? Maybe not full field but definately a test for Cobalt if he were to stay.

Curlin on the other hand will need more than three starts to be Derby winner. While impressive Saturday he truly did not beat much

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by merasmag

why does he havta skip the derby to win the preakness????????? i've seen no triple crown winner talk yet (surprisingly )

Probably because he would come in well rested and prepared to beat the tired Kentucky Derby winner (whatever horse that may be.) If he runs in the derby, he's not going to be well rested.

[slotdirt]

So this was Curlin's what, second career start? Give him another before the Derby, and he'll come into the Derby with three starts under his belt. I'm sorry, I just don't believe in a horse that comes into the starting gate in a 20 horse field with such little seasoning.

I can't find my stats, but I don't think a horse has won the Derby with fewer than four or five career starts since like 100 years ago.

[hockey2315]

Alot of derby trends are changing, though. . . Look @ dosage, the three prep philosophy, and the fact that Barbaro won last year with 5 weeks between starts. . . An exceptional horse or perfect set-up will overcome these trends. . .

[slotdirt]

The three prep angle is still in effect. The five week layoff angle was broken last year. Dosage is hooey, so I don't count that for anything. Given that no dual qualifier has won the Derby since like '97.

[Cajungator26]

The dual qualifiers are bolded. (For those interested.) There are some not on this list, but you get the general idea.

Horse Trainer Dosage Jockey

Adore the Gold Michael Gorham 2.20 Cornelio Velasquez

Any Given Saturday Todd Pletcher 2.67 * Rafael Bejarano

Bwana Bull Jerry Hollendorfer 3.40 Russell Baze

Circular Quay Todd Pletcher 2.08 * Garrett Gomez

Cowtown Cat Todd Pletcher 2.60 Ramon Dominguez

E Z Warrior Bob Baffert 3.00 David Flores

Great Hunter Doug O'Neill 3.00 * Corey Nakatani

Hard Spun Larry Jones 2.67 Mario Pino

Ketchikan Al Stall Jr. 2.11 Larry Melancon

King of the Roxy Todd Pletcher 3.00 * Edgar Prado

Liquidity Doug O'Neill 1.86 * Corey Nakatani

Nobiz Like Shobiz Barclay Tagg 1.44 * Cornelio Velasquez

Notional Doug O'Neill 2.33 Corey Nakatani

Officer Rocket Robert Holthus 3.00 Calvin Borel

Ravel Todd Pletcher 3.00 Garrett Gomez

Scat Daddy Todd Pletcher 2.47 * John Velazquez

Stormello Bill Currin 2.67 * Kent Desormeaux

Street Sense Carl Nafzger 2.14 * Calvin Borel

Summer Doldrums Richard Violette Jr. 3.67 Mike Luzzi

Teuflesberg Jamie Sanders 2.27 Stewart Elliott

Xchanger Mark Shuman 3.00 Joe Bravo

Zanjero Steve Asmussen 3.50 Garrett Gomez

[slotdirt]

Hmmm...well the dual qualifier non-winning streak could certainly be broken this year. Certainly.

[jpops757]

To eliminate a colt because of some old tradition is kinda like saying bet the gray in the 3rd race. Because more grays win he 3rd race.This horse smoked the field in his 2nd race and 1st 2 turn race. Handicaping normally everyone would say gimme more ground and look for more improvement. If you are going to toss this horse at least evaluate his form and progression.

[hockey2315]

Cobalt Blue earned a 96 BSF compared to Curlin's 97. . .

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Cobalt Blue earned a 96 BSF compared to Curlin's 97. . .

visually i thought curlin was 10 times more impressive, i thought his number would come back 4-5 points higher than cobalt blue

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

visually i thought curlin was 10 times more impressive, i thought his number would come back 4-5 points higher than cobalt blue

Oh man!

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

visually i thought curlin was 10 times more impressive, i thought his number would come back 4-5 points higher than cobalt blue

Again even though the tracks run very differently, over 2 seconds difference seems very large. I know Santa Anita is fast but over 2 seconds??? (looks like 2.3 seconds) diff. with the winning horse on the slower track (Curlin) winning by a much wider margin.

The times must have played too much of a role in those Beyers if one horse was far more visually impressive than another (which I dont agree with, I think Cobalt Blue showed wonderful restraint, a very professional run for a relatively inexperienced horse first time going two turns) and the numbers are almost exactly the same. Maybe that big bad Grade II was given extra points or something.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

It really is almost a 2 second difference if you look at some of the results for each track on Saturday. At Santa Anita 16K claimers go in 1.10. At Oaklawn an allowance race at 6F goes in 1.12 and 3. The tracks are very different time wise.

Then maybe they automatically consider a Grade II more worthy even though in this case it was not.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I am almost 100% positive class of the race has no effect on the Beyer. It's way too difficult to compare times on different tracks. Personally I don't even look at times, because of how different tracks are. I mean tracks change dramatically from one day to the next, even same day. I think looking at how a horse did it and who they beat is much more valuable than trying to compare times for different races and analyzing why horse A got a certain figure and why horse B got another. Just my opinion.

Well this is what Beyers are supposed to help with in the first place.

But Im going to tell you, even though I personally was more impressed with Cobalt Blue than Curlin (and I am in the minority) I thought the BSF's woud be something like Cobalt Blue 92, Curlin 100.

[JJP]

IMO there's no comparison. Cobalt Blue was lone speed setting a soft pace in a small field over the SA dragstrip. Curlin was wide on both turns and blew the Rebel field away, and still wasn't 100% minding his manners in the stretch. If he had run straight at GP, he'd probably have won by 22 lengths. As for Cobalt Blue, I was much more impressed with Air Commander in that race. He was wide and definitely hurt by the slow pace. I would not be surprised if come December, Curlin was the best 3YO of this crop.

[slotdirt]

I won't be betting Curlin to win the Derby just like I didn't bet Showing Up to win last year's Derby after three career starts. Horses absolutely need more seasoning in a 20 horse field than Curlin will have. This isn't an angle like dosage or the BC juvenile jinx; this is an angle based on the fact that it takes more than three races to truly prepare a horse for a 20 horse field in May of his or her 3YO season.