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#21
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Tod Marks Photo - Daybreak over Oklahoma |
#22
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#23
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![]() I'll be throwing both of these horses out come Derby day, especially Curlin. I'm sorry, horses with less than four career starts coming into the Derby just don't win on the first Saturday in May.
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The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs." |
#24
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#25
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Curlin on the other hand will need more than three starts to be Derby winner. While impressive Saturday he truly did not beat much |
#26
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http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26 |
#27
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![]() So this was Curlin's what, second career start? Give him another before the Derby, and he'll come into the Derby with three starts under his belt. I'm sorry, I just don't believe in a horse that comes into the starting gate in a 20 horse field with such little seasoning.
I can't find my stats, but I don't think a horse has won the Derby with fewer than four or five career starts since like 100 years ago.
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The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs." |
#28
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![]() Alot of derby trends are changing, though. . . Look @ dosage, the three prep philosophy, and the fact that Barbaro won last year with 5 weeks between starts. . . An exceptional horse or perfect set-up will overcome these trends. . .
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@BDiDonatoTDN |
#29
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![]() The three prep angle is still in effect. The five week layoff angle was broken last year. Dosage is hooey, so I don't count that for anything. Given that no dual qualifier has won the Derby since like '97.
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The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs." |
#30
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![]() The dual qualifiers are bolded. (For those interested.) There are some not on this list, but you get the general idea.
Horse Trainer Dosage Jockey Adore the Gold Michael Gorham 2.20 Cornelio Velasquez Any Given Saturday Todd Pletcher 2.67 * Rafael Bejarano Bwana Bull Jerry Hollendorfer 3.40 Russell Baze Circular Quay Todd Pletcher 2.08 * Garrett Gomez Cowtown Cat Todd Pletcher 2.60 Ramon Dominguez E Z Warrior Bob Baffert 3.00 David Flores Great Hunter Doug O'Neill 3.00 * Corey Nakatani Hard Spun Larry Jones 2.67 Mario Pino Ketchikan Al Stall Jr. 2.11 Larry Melancon King of the Roxy Todd Pletcher 3.00 * Edgar Prado Liquidity Doug O'Neill 1.86 * Corey Nakatani Nobiz Like Shobiz Barclay Tagg 1.44 * Cornelio Velasquez Notional Doug O'Neill 2.33 Corey Nakatani Officer Rocket Robert Holthus 3.00 Calvin Borel Ravel Todd Pletcher 3.00 Garrett Gomez Scat Daddy Todd Pletcher 2.47 * John Velazquez Stormello Bill Currin 2.67 * Kent Desormeaux Street Sense Carl Nafzger 2.14 * Calvin Borel Summer Doldrums Richard Violette Jr. 3.67 Mike Luzzi Teuflesberg Jamie Sanders 2.27 Stewart Elliott Xchanger Mark Shuman 3.00 Joe Bravo Zanjero Steve Asmussen 3.50 Garrett Gomez
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http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26 |
#31
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![]() Hmmm...well the dual qualifier non-winning streak could certainly be broken this year. Certainly.
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The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs." |
#32
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![]() To eliminate a colt because of some old tradition is kinda like saying bet the gray in the 3rd race. Because more grays win he 3rd race.This horse smoked the field in his 2nd race and 1st 2 turn race. Handicaping normally everyone would say gimme more ground and look for more improvement. If you are going to toss this horse at least evaluate his form and progression.
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#33
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![]() Cobalt Blue earned a 96 BSF compared to Curlin's 97. . .
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@BDiDonatoTDN |
#34
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#35
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http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26 |
#36
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The times must have played too much of a role in those Beyers if one horse was far more visually impressive than another (which I dont agree with, I think Cobalt Blue showed wonderful restraint, a very professional run for a relatively inexperienced horse first time going two turns) and the numbers are almost exactly the same. Maybe that big bad Grade II was given extra points or something. |
#37
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#38
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But Im going to tell you, even though I personally was more impressed with Cobalt Blue than Curlin (and I am in the minority) I thought the BSF's woud be something like Cobalt Blue 92, Curlin 100. |
#39
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![]() IMO there's no comparison. Cobalt Blue was lone speed setting a soft pace in a small field over the SA dragstrip. Curlin was wide on both turns and blew the Rebel field away, and still wasn't 100% minding his manners in the stretch. If he had run straight at GP, he'd probably have won by 22 lengths. As for Cobalt Blue, I was much more impressed with Air Commander in that race. He was wide and definitely hurt by the slow pace. I would not be surprised if come December, Curlin was the best 3YO of this crop.
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#40
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![]() I won't be betting Curlin to win the Derby just like I didn't bet Showing Up to win last year's Derby after three career starts. Horses absolutely need more seasoning in a 20 horse field than Curlin will have. This isn't an angle like dosage or the BC juvenile jinx; this is an angle based on the fact that it takes more than three races to truly prepare a horse for a 20 horse field in May of his or her 3YO season.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs." |