Curlin v. Cobalt Blue

Both of these 6 f winners stretched out and showed great promise in their wins. I think even though Curlin looked very impressive having a wider trip and winning by a larger margin, I will say Cobalt Blue looked more impressive even with an easier trip against what I think was a weaker field.

ONeill is a very wise man it appears. This horse looks like he already knows exactly what he is supposed to do. I think he responded very well to the riders instructions and he looks like he knows exactly where the finish line is. A very precocious showing imo. Very controlled. I would shoot for the Preakness but Merv clearly wants the big show, and Jeannie Jackle's body.

[miraja2]

Well Curlin was actually stretching out from 7f, not 6f, but I still think his race was more impressive because:
1) It was only his second lifetime start.
2) He was facing slightly better competition.
3) It was just more visually impressive to me the way he rated and made that big move.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Both of these 6 f winners stretched out and showed great promise in their wins. I think even though Curlin looked very impressive having a wider trip and winning by a larger margin, I will say Cobalt Blue looked more impressive even with an easier trip against what I think was a weaker field.

ONeill is a very wise man it appears. This horse looks like he already knows exactly what he is supposed to do. I think he responded very well to the riders instructions and he looks like he knows exactly where the finish line is. A very precocious showing imo. Very controlled. I would shoot for the Preakness but Merv clearly wants the big show, and Jeannie Jackle's body.

The only problem I have with Cobalt Blue is that his race yesterday reminded me very much of Brother Derek's runs leading to the Derby. I think he's a hugely talented horse, but I don't see how we can extrapolate anything from his performance yesterday. Not sure about the difference in the variants between the two days, because the 1 1/16 distance there hasn't been run a whole lot recently, but a stakes horse loping through fractions slower then 32K-28K claimers two days earlier doesn't set me on fire. He got it all his way the entire way, much like Brother Derek did all last Spring. We've seen how coasting on a soft lead in five horse fields leading up to the Derby helps a horse -- that is to say, not very much.

I think he's a good horse, don't get me wrong. But I just don't think yesterday told me anything at all about whether or not he can handle real racehorses in a normally run race.

Originally Posted by miraja2

Well Curlin was actually stretching out from 7f, not 6f, but I still think his race was more impressive because:
1) It was only his second lifetime start.
2) He was facing slightly better competition.
3) It was just more visually impressive to me the way he rated and made that big move.

I stand corrected 7f, but one turn.
And I can see how you would pick Curlin.
Just trying to start a bit of a discussion concerning these two wonderful showings by "sprinters" gone long.

I would definitely shoot Preakness with Curlin, if they want some TC at all.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The only problem I have with Cobalt Blue is that his race yesterday reminded me very much of Brother Derek's runs leading to the Derby. I think he's a hugely talented horse, but I don't see how we can extrapolate anything from his performance yesterday. Not sure about the difference in the variants between the two days, because the 1 1/16 distance there hasn't been run a whole lot recently, but a stakes horse loping through fractions slower then 32K-28K claimers two days earlier doesn't set me on fire. He got it all his way the entire way, much like Brother Derek did all last Spring. We've seen how coasting on a soft lead in five horse fields leading up to the Derby helps a horse -- that is to say, not very much.

I think he's a good horse, don't get me wrong. But I just don't think yesterday told me anything at all about whether or not he can handle real racehorses in a normally run race.

I agree completely. To me Curlin showed much more yesterday, with a robust wide rally, looking rather professional for the most part.
I don't think we learned that much about Cobabt Blue, it does remind me of some of Brother Dereks wins last year. When you have comfortable pace and position all to yourself the effort gets flattered.

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The only problem I have with Cobalt Blue is that his race yesterday reminded me very much of Brother Derek's runs leading to the Derby. I think he's a hugely talented horse, but I don't see how we can extrapolate anything from his performance yesterday. Not sure about the difference in the variants between the two days, because the 1 1/16 distance there hasn't been run a whole lot recently, but a stakes horse loping through fractions slower then 32K-28K claimers two days earlier doesn't set me on fire. He got it all his way the entire way, much like Brother Derek did all last Spring. We've seen how coasting on a soft lead in five horse fields leading up to the Derby helps a horse -- that is to say, not very much.

I think he's a good horse, don't get me wrong. But I just don't think yesterday told me anything at all about whether or not he can handle real racehorses in a normally run race.

Difference is Brother Derek ran very hard out of the gate. Brother Derek used so much up. I think Cobalt Blue is controlable speed. Which he used zero of yesterday. I was impressed with how comfortable he ran. Brother Derek always looked like he was trying so hard, and he was. Very game animal. I have little idea of how game Cobalt Blue is.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

The only problem I have with Cobalt Blue is that his race yesterday reminded me very much of Brother Derek's runs leading to the Derby. I think he's a hugely talented horse, but I don't see how we can extrapolate anything from his performance yesterday. Not sure about the difference in the variants between the two days, because the 1 1/16 distance there hasn't been run a whole lot recently, but a stakes horse loping through fractions slower then 32K-28K claimers two days earlier doesn't set me on fire. He got it all his way the entire way, much like Brother Derek did all last Spring. We've seen how coasting on a soft lead in five horse fields leading up to the Derby helps a horse -- that is to say, not very much.

I think he's a good horse, don't get me wrong. But I just don't think yesterday told me anything at all about whether or not he can handle real racehorses in a normally run race.

I think that was more a product of no speed signed on in the race. I don't think he is like Brother Derek. He has shown some races where he closed and sat patiently....O'Neill has a shot this year with those 2. Great Hunter would be my top choice right now.

[Getaway]

They both looked very impressive, I just have not made up my mind yet as to who should be at the top of my list.

So Randall and myself are the only ones that take Cobalt Blue.
Randall we agree on something besides teaching and its rigors.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by pgardn

So Randall and myself are the only ones that take Cobalt Blue.
Randall we agree on something besides teaching and its rigors.

Over Curlin, yes.

But I'll take Great Hunter over anyone else right now.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

im not high on either of them, but if the hooked up today i think curlin beats him by open lenghts

[POINTGIVEN1985]

Originally Posted by Getaway

They both looked very impressive, I just have not made up my mind yet as to who should be at the top of my list.

i dont think cobalt blue was that impressive, he had EVERYTHING his own way just galloped around the track

Originally Posted by POINTGIVEN1985

i dont think cobalt blue was that impressive, he had EVERYTHING his own way just galloped around the track

Thats why I did find it impressive. Nonchalant stretchout. Very controlled.

[POINTGIVEN1985]

i dont know, i cant see him being any factor in the santa anita derby unless its paceless

[almar3t]

Cobalt Blue is not following in Brother Derek's footsteps evidently:


"Cobalt Blue likely will have one more prep race, and Griffin indicated a few days ago his colt would run in the Illinois Derby (gr. II) at Hawthorne Park on April 7."

Wisely connections are going for field experience and not making the mistake of beating up on 5 horses field for all their derby preps.

almar3t

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I'm skeptical about Cobalt Blue as well since I don't think yesterday was that impressive. Like someone already said, kind of reminded me of Brother Derek. However, IMO the reason he was on the lead is because he was basically forced to be. He has shown an ability to pass horses in the past and by no means is a need the lead type. Just watch his debut and allowance race at Santa Anita. Yesterday's result should not lead to a conclusion that he is a need the lead type. Is he good enough to compete with the upper echelon 3 year olds right now, IMO no, but we'll see.

I didn't mean to imply that he's a need-the-lead type because I saw his other races as well.

I was just saying that I think he's a nice colt, but I'm not using yesterday's performance to make any big predictions on him, because races like that have in the past, not held up when big fields full of stakes horses actually show up.

That's why he reminded me of Brother Derek, just that he got a slow lead against a less-then-stellar field and had it his own way the whole time.

[jpops757]

Blue will run his race and has no fear of running on the lead and if no one presses and he get an easy lead he looks like he is the type that can steal a race if they leave him alone on the lead without pressing. He is not cheap speed. He is the kind of colt that will make the race a honest race with the best horse winning.

Originally Posted by almar3t

Cobalt Blue is not following in Brother Derek's footsteps evidently:


"Cobalt Blue likely will have one more prep race, and Griffin indicated a few days ago his colt would run in the Illinois Derby (gr. II) at Hawthorne Park on April 7."

Wisely connections are going for field experience and not making the mistake of beating up on 5 horses field for all their derby preps.

almar3t

I also applaud this move. And I think the next move would be to skip the K. Derby.
But here is where Merv showtime comes in. If Cobalt Blue faces a full decent, but not stellar field in the Illinois, because others like Stormello, Ravel, Liquidity (I still fear this one) will run in the Santa Anita, and the Wood will take some Eastern horses along with the Florida Derby the week before, and Cobalt wins the Illinois... then Merv is going to the Derby.

I would go to the Preakness.

Both 1 1/16 miles:

Curlin 1:44.76
Cobalt Blue 1:42.6

I know Santa Anita is faster than Oaklawn, I have not compared similar races on the same tracks. But damn over 2 seconds, very diff. tracks.

[hockey2315]

What speed fig did Cobalt Blue run? Sorry if this is posted in another thread and I'm not seeing it. . .