Street Sense Number

[blackthroatedwind]

I love Street Sense, and was thrilled with his race today ( though Any Given Sunday was just as well ), but I am a little concerned that he's a " rail runner " in that his two very big efforts came by running up the fence. As someone mentioned earlier, he isn't likely to get that trip in the Derby, and perhaps he's one of those horses that runs his best when inside.

Not a knock...just a thought.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am a little concerned that he's a " rail runner " in that his two very big efforts came by running up the fence. As someone mentioned earlier, he isn't likely to get that trip in the Derby, and perhaps he's one of those horses that runs his best when inside.

This is a very good point. He used to have more tactical speed but seems more effective as a one run closer. And we know how much luck they need to get things to break their way in the Derby scramble.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

This is a very good point. He used to have more tactical speed but seems more effective as a one run closer. And we know how much luck they need to get things to break their way in the Derby scramble.

And if he draws inside with that one run, his connections can kiss their Derby goodbye. And that would be horribly disappointing for this runner. I was elated today when he nosed on ahead of Pletcher's, AGS. I always am when someone, anyone . . . does.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I love Street Sense, and was thrilled with his race today ( though Any Given Sunday was just as well ), but I am a little concerned that he's a " rail runner " in that his two very big efforts came by running up the fence. As someone mentioned earlier, he isn't likely to get that trip in the Derby, and perhaps he's one of those horses that runs his best when inside.

Not a knock...just a thought.

I was thrilled with him today too. I'm going to enjoy seeing Nafzger getting this horse to the Derby. This is a fascinating exercise of horsemanship combined with a horse with actual talent and guts. Not trying to squeeze blood from a turnip like we've seen from some or a trainer with a talented horse that had no heart or was a head case. Usually they lack some tool don't they? Either in the trainer or the horse.

I'm not going to be critical about this rail thing. I think Street Sense was determined to gut this one out so why make it harder on him than you have to? Better that it happened now than the next race really. If the rail's sitting right there for the taking in a prep race, what's Borel supposed to do? Go outside when he doesn't have to just to prove a point? If it's the shortest way around and isn't obviously going to be too dead to help you, I just think it'd be kinda goofy to not take it. If he'd lost by a half length or something and been taken the long way we'd all be grumbling that he would've done better if he'd gone to the inside. The horse was obviously going to work hard regardless of where he was placed because he was determined to keep trying. It tells me if they can keep him from getting too over the top he'll be really gunning for it at the end of the Derby, just when you need it, plus he doesn't need to have a huge clear path to do it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I'm not going to be critical about this rail thing.

I think you are missing my point, and it's not an absolute one, but at least a possibility.

Some horses are " rail runners " which effectively means they basically need to be on the rail to do their best running and will sort of sulk if they aren't on the fence. The converse is that some horses don't like being inside, and run inside as if they are effectively " chicken ", and won't pass horses on the inside. Since the two big efforts we have seen from Street Sense have come while rallying on the rail I am offering this as at least a possibility.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you are missing my point, and it's not an absolute one, but at least a possibility.

Some horses are " rail runners " which effectively means they basically need to be on the rail to do their best running and will sort of sulk if they aren't on the fence. The converse is that some horses don't like being inside, and run inside as if they are effectively " chicken ", and won't pass horses on the inside. Since the two big efforts we have seen from Street Sense have come while rallying on the rail I am offering this as at least a possibility.

Oh I get what you mean, I just don't know that I would draw this conclusion with any level of confidence. Some folks grumbled that he might be a one run closer or are afraid he's a rail horse but quite simply until they do otherwise you don't know and why complain when a jockey does what makes sense? It's like we're trying to find flaws here--he saved too much ground, he's too fast, he's too gutsy... oh heaven forbid. He didn't need more than one run today so how could we know he wasn't capable of more than that (he's been tactical in the past right?) and he didn't need to go to the outside a mere two times in succession and months apart which doesn't really indicate a trend necessarily. Should we really think of what could just be coincidence as a weakness yet?

The rail's the shortest way around, can you blame Borel for taking it? I don't think Street Sense is likely to sulk but that's just my opinion. He seemed to take it personally that he was being challenged. I think if he sees a horse up ahead and he's on the outside, he'll be busting his tail to get there. At least we won't have to listen to 'was never looked in the eye' comments.

[blackthroatedwind]

I didn't draw any conclusions.....I just offered a possibility. One thing is for sure, his two best efforts have come while making inside runs, which is rarer than most people think. It isn't a question of the shortest route to the wire, as many horses are far more comfortable rallying outside of horses, and that is seemingly not the case with Street Sense. At the very least he is comfortable regardless of racetrack position. However, the ease with which he rallies inside, suggests he is VERY comfortable there.

My post wasn't a stance on Street Sense but an observation about how he achieved his two strongest results. In general, I think the " rail is the shortest route to the wire " concept is as deceptive a way of thinking as I know in racing. It is quite simply a misconception of race dynamics.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My post wasn't a stance on Street Sense but an observation about how he achieved his two strongest results. In general, I think the " rail is the shortest route to the wire " concept is as deceptive a way of thinking as I know in racing. It is quite simply a misconception of race dynamics.

His two strongest results also happen to be his last two outings. Couldn't just be that he's getting better could it? If you know a horse is fine going up through the inside, surely it could just be a combination of a good ride plus a horse with a good head on its shoulders. My point is sure you could think the horse likes being down there but it could also quite possibly be that it's a general professionalism rather than a preference by the horse. I don't think 2 races justifies a trend. I think the 'rail's the shortest distance' is completely viable here if it's obviously going to be a catfight to the end and you know the horse's gonna do it, like it or not. You save ground because every inch matters. I don't think he needed the rail in the Juvenile but hey if it's there, again, why not?

I just feel this idea that it's a misconception of race dynamics is only a viable way of thinking if either the rail's dead or the horse doesn't like being on the inside. If the rail's fine and the horse is talented and doesn't have a problem with it, why would any other course of action be as good? Or should I say good enough to opt out of it deliberately.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

His two strongest results also happen to be his last two outings. Couldn't just be that he's getting better could it? If you know a horse is fine going up through the inside, surely it could just be a combination of a good ride plus a horse with a good head on its shoulders. My point is sure you could think the horse likes being down there but it could also quite possibly be that it's a general professionalism rather than a preference by the horse. I don't think 2 races justifies a trend. I think the 'rail's the shortest distance' is completely viable here if it's obviously going to be a catfight to the end and you know the horse's gonna do it, like it or not. You save ground because every inch matters. I don't think he needed the rail in the Juvenile but hey if it's there, again, why not?

I just feel this idea that it's a misconception of race dynamics is only a viable way of thinking if either the rail's dead or the horse doesn't like being on the inside. If the rail's fine and the horse is talented and doesn't have a problem with it, why would any other course of action be as good? Or should I say good enough to opt out of it deliberately.

You seem to be arguing a point with me that I didn't make. I never made a conclusive statement, and just offered a possibility, and never even remotely suggested what you said in the first paragraph was not the case.

I am open to as many possibilities as I can imagine. However, it never hurts to at least accept the possibility that something demonstrated MAY be true. That's all.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

In general, I think the " rail is the shortest route to the wire " concept is as deceptive a way of thinking as I know in racing. It is quite simply a misconception of race dynamics.

Can you elaborate on this? I think I understand what you are saying in relation to SS, but not really sure how terrible this thinking is. I understand a lot of horses dont like to come inside but are there examples of horses that dont like to go outside? Not really sure if this is your pt. or not. so...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Can you elaborate on this? I think I understand what you are saying in relation to SS, but not really sure how terrible this thinking is. I understand a lot of horses dont like to come inside but are there examples of horses that dont like to go outside? Not really sure if this is your pt. or not. so...

I'm not sure I would use the word " terrible ", as I felt deceptive was more apt, and I will try to explain.

Let's assume for this argument that all tracks are " fair ", in other words there is no advantage or disadvantage to being in one path or another, and only ground loss is involved. Thus, clearly the more time spent on the inside, or closer to the inside, on the turns the better in terms of overall ground covered. Thus, obviously there is some very real incentive to staying inside. However, many horses are intimidated by running inside of horses, whether in the stretch or sometimes even on turns, so they will not exert themselves if forced into this position. This does not hold true for ALL horses, and I wouldn't ever suggest absolutes like that, but it is true for many. In general, many horses do their best running unencumbered on the outside of other horses. So, for this reason it is a mistake, IMO, to automatically assume that an inside trip is a good trip. It may be...but it is far from an absolute.

I am sure you have bet horses in your life that have had sweet looking trips inside and behind horses and somewhat surprisingly didn't run as well as you figured, and almost looked to be spinning their wheels so to speak, only to come back and run much better the next time with a more outside trip. This goes against the " saving ground is best " way of thinking, and may be due to the horse being uncomfortable inside or perhaps not liking dirt getting kicked in its face, but for whatever reason I think it shows at least the possibility that saving ground is not ALWAYS the best way to victory. The horse's comfort CAN far outweigh any ground loss.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you are missing my point, and it's not an absolute one, but at least a possibility.

Some horses are " rail runners " which effectively means they basically need to be on the rail to do their best running and will sort of sulk if they aren't on the fence. The converse is that some horses don't like being inside, and run inside as if they are effectively " chicken ", and won't pass horses on the inside. Since the two big efforts we have seen from Street Sense have come while rallying on the rail I am offering this as at least a possibility.

This is a long thread, and this being the original thought/possibility I think it fair to show BTW's first comment once again, as it DOES deal with psychology first. In that vein, I don't believe it qualifies to mark the last post as moot.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I see what you are saying and sure it's a possibility. But if he doesn't take the rail today and instead follows AGS I feel like he probably gets beat but still is right there. Like you know and it's been discussed a million times here, he didn't exactly sulk when prematurely moved at keeneland. he didn't finish as well but I feel like that was more to do with the trip and the way Keeneland played nearly all meet.

I don't hold the Keeneland race too much against him because of the pace of that race, they were all up and on a strong pace and he may have moved too early. It was his first two turn race. Borel kept him back a bit more in the BC and it worked better for him. I think that is the style that he will continue to employ.

[blackthroatedwind]

The Keeneland race was a pretty remarkable performance and surely showed that Street Sense can perform well under adverse circumstances. I really recommend watching that race again. He had the worst of trips and still almost won.

[the_fat_man]

Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:

Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner

1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2



Everybody feeling better now?

Rail runner, my ass. He moved too soon and he was widest of all. What else did he need to do?

Now, THIS was a giant race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:

Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner

1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2



Everybody feeling better now?

Rail runner, my ass. He moved too soon and he was widest of all. What else did he need to do?

Now, THIS was a giant race.

I know you're desperate for any argument you can find, and you have certainly shown on this board and PaceAdvantage a pathetic need to try and contradict me, but perhaps you should read all my posts in this thread before embarrassing yourself anymore. Not that I care....as the vast majority of your posts only expose your simplistic and childlike understanding of trips. That is, of course, when you aren't just trolling for a fight.

Here's my most recent post in this thread.....

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Keeneland race was a pretty remarkable performance and surely showed that Street Sense can perform well under adverse circumstances. I really recommend watching that race again. He had the worst of trips and still almost won.

One thing is for sure, it's a good thing you don't bet ( yes, sportsfans, the Fat Man brags about not betting on another board ).

[Grits]

Trakus, the new technology, the new info, termed as cutting edge--with its bouncing balls of saddle cloth colors traveling the oval above each horse.

In regard to this boondoggle of stats, as vital as they may seem to you, keep 'em.

Equibase charts, I assure you, are not in danger of being replaced.

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:

Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner

1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I love Street Sense, and was thrilled with his race today ( though Any Given Sunday was just as well ), but I am a little concerned that he's a " rail runner " in that his two very big efforts came by running up the fence. As someone mentioned earlier, he isn't likely to get that trip in the Derby, and perhaps he's one of those horses that runs his best when inside.

Not a knock...just a thought.

Hey fat man,
I think you need to read again the post again that got you all worked up. What exactly does blackthroatedwind say in this post? He says he is "concerned" and that he thinks the horse is "perhaps" a horse that does his best running inside. He isn't knocking the horse, but bringing up a legitimate question. If he had come on here and posted, "Street Sense is a fraud, he can ONLY win with a rail trip," that would have been a different story.
Your argument seems to be that it is not even worth considering that his last two big performances have come on the rail. That does not make sense to me. Almost everything that happens in a horse's race career is worth considering.....especially something like this.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Hey fat man,
I think you need to read again the post again that got you all worked up. What exactly does blackthroatedwind say in this post? He says he is "concerned" and that he thinks the horse is "perhaps" a horse that does his best running inside. He isn't knocking the horse, but bringing up a legitimate question. If he had come on here and posted, "Street Sense is a fraud, he can ONLY win with a rail trip," that would have been a different story.
Your argument seems to be that it is not even worth considering that his last two big performances have come on the rail. That does not make sense to me. Almost everything that happens in a horse's race career is worth considering.....especially something like this.

Why does taking the best available route make the horse a possible rail runner (only)? Would you have preferred that he went around horses in Tampa? Would you have wanted a 3 or 4 wide trip in a 5 horse field (like Gomez in Cali)? Would that have allayed all concerns about this horses ability to run wide? Why is a good ride all of a sudden cause for concern?

I didn't misunderstand what he wrote. I just can see over analyzing.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Why does taking the best available route make the horse a possible rail runner (only)? Would you have preferred that he went around horses in Tampa? Would you have wanted a 3 or 4 wide trip in a 5 horse field (like Gomez in Cali)? Would that have allayed all concerns about this horses ability to run wide? Why is a good ride all of a sudden cause for concern?

I didn't misunderstand what he wrote. I just can see over analyzing.

I could respond by explaining, for about the fifth time, that I never made any conclusive observations, but merely offered a possibility, but since you have admitted that I am a " foil " of yours, and thus have admitted to trolling me, then there's really no reason to offer what you know to be the truth.