Street Sense Number

[blackthroatedwind]

I love Street Sense, and was thrilled with his race today ( though Any Given Sunday was just as well ), but I am a little concerned that he's a " rail runner " in that his two very big efforts came by running up the fence. As someone mentioned earlier, he isn't likely to get that trip in the Derby, and perhaps he's one of those horses that runs his best when inside.

Not a knock...just a thought.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am a little concerned that he's a " rail runner " in that his two very big efforts came by running up the fence. As someone mentioned earlier, he isn't likely to get that trip in the Derby, and perhaps he's one of those horses that runs his best when inside.

This is a very good point. He used to have more tactical speed but seems more effective as a one run closer. And we know how much luck they need to get things to break their way in the Derby scramble.

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

You cant get a horse to "peak" on a particular day. It's crap. Who in recent years "peaked" before the Derby and blew it? Trainers can not control how their horse matures and gets better or doesn't. As I said in another thread, they undertrain and race them and that is a leading cause of so many young, developing horses getting hurt. And if I had a really talented horse and tried to do it a different way, I'm sure that I would hear all the naysayers tell me how I was a Derby rookie and dont know what I'm doing. The pressure that Pletcher puts on the rest of the trainers is immense because so many of the dopes that own horses cant seem to understand that his methods work because of the horses not because of the methods. Of course he has won as many Derbies as the rest of us on this board.

Would you say Bellamy Road ran too good of a race in the Wood to come back and duplicate that performance in the Derby? A horse that blew his engine too early to me was Brother derek..Just my opinion of course

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

Would you say Bellamy Road ran too good of a race in the Wood to come back and duplicate that performance in the Derby? A horse that blew his engine too early to me was Brother derek..Just my opinion of course

Maybe he did but how could you prevent that from happening?
Brother Derek had an easy road to the Derby. A bunch of paceless races in his own back yard against far from talented competition. Plus he got a pretty brutal trip in the Derby.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

This is a very good point. He used to have more tactical speed but seems more effective as a one run closer. And we know how much luck they need to get things to break their way in the Derby scramble.

And if he draws inside with that one run, his connections can kiss their Derby goodbye. And that would be horribly disappointing for this runner. I was elated today when he nosed on ahead of Pletcher's, AGS. I always am when someone, anyone . . . does.

[The Bid]

4 horse fields dont produce a Derby winner

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Maybe he did but how could you prevent that from happening?
Brother Derek had an easy road to the Derby. A bunch of paceless races in his own back yard against far from talented competition. Plus he got a pretty brutal trip in the Derby.

You cant. They are going to run the way they know how to. Do you believe in the hooplah about stewie elliot taking it too hard on Smarty in the Preakness?? This in turn, not leaving Smarty with not much in the tank for the Belmont.. I dont give that any credence but a couple of buddies of mine do..I respect your opinion on horses and the industry as a whole, a great deal..

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

You cant. They are going to run the way they know how to. Do you believe in the hooplah about stewie elliot taking it too hard on Smarty in the Preakness?? This in turn, not leaving Smarty with not much in the tank for the Belmont.. I dont give that any credence but a couple of buddies of mine do..I respect your opinion on horses and the industry as a whole, a great deal..

I thought that both he and Santos on Funny Cide may have gotten a little carried away in the stretch of the Preakness but it is impossible to determine if it had any effect in the Belmont. I think that in many cases what the rider is doing has little effect on the speed of horses once they are going full speed. But in these cases in deep stretch of taxing races on short rest, I would rather see the jockey take it easy rather than drive them to the wire. Things like this and the arguments that occur because of them are what makes racing interesting. Of course the fact that they may give you a lot of money after the race makes it pretty good also.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I love Street Sense, and was thrilled with his race today ( though Any Given Sunday was just as well ), but I am a little concerned that he's a " rail runner " in that his two very big efforts came by running up the fence. As someone mentioned earlier, he isn't likely to get that trip in the Derby, and perhaps he's one of those horses that runs his best when inside.

Not a knock...just a thought.

I was thrilled with him today too. I'm going to enjoy seeing Nafzger getting this horse to the Derby. This is a fascinating exercise of horsemanship combined with a horse with actual talent and guts. Not trying to squeeze blood from a turnip like we've seen from some or a trainer with a talented horse that had no heart or was a head case. Usually they lack some tool don't they? Either in the trainer or the horse.

I'm not going to be critical about this rail thing. I think Street Sense was determined to gut this one out so why make it harder on him than you have to? Better that it happened now than the next race really. If the rail's sitting right there for the taking in a prep race, what's Borel supposed to do? Go outside when he doesn't have to just to prove a point? If it's the shortest way around and isn't obviously going to be too dead to help you, I just think it'd be kinda goofy to not take it. If he'd lost by a half length or something and been taken the long way we'd all be grumbling that he would've done better if he'd gone to the inside. The horse was obviously going to work hard regardless of where he was placed because he was determined to keep trying. It tells me if they can keep him from getting too over the top he'll be really gunning for it at the end of the Derby, just when you need it, plus he doesn't need to have a huge clear path to do it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

I'm not going to be critical about this rail thing.

I think you are missing my point, and it's not an absolute one, but at least a possibility.

Some horses are " rail runners " which effectively means they basically need to be on the rail to do their best running and will sort of sulk if they aren't on the fence. The converse is that some horses don't like being inside, and run inside as if they are effectively " chicken ", and won't pass horses on the inside. Since the two big efforts we have seen from Street Sense have come while rallying on the rail I am offering this as at least a possibility.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think you are missing my point, and it's not an absolute one, but at least a possibility.

Some horses are " rail runners " which effectively means they basically need to be on the rail to do their best running and will sort of sulk if they aren't on the fence. The converse is that some horses don't like being inside, and run inside as if they are effectively " chicken ", and won't pass horses on the inside. Since the two big efforts we have seen from Street Sense have come while rallying on the rail I am offering this as at least a possibility.

Oh I get what you mean, I just don't know that I would draw this conclusion with any level of confidence. Some folks grumbled that he might be a one run closer or are afraid he's a rail horse but quite simply until they do otherwise you don't know and why complain when a jockey does what makes sense? It's like we're trying to find flaws here--he saved too much ground, he's too fast, he's too gutsy... oh heaven forbid. He didn't need more than one run today so how could we know he wasn't capable of more than that (he's been tactical in the past right?) and he didn't need to go to the outside a mere two times in succession and months apart which doesn't really indicate a trend necessarily. Should we really think of what could just be coincidence as a weakness yet?

The rail's the shortest way around, can you blame Borel for taking it? I don't think Street Sense is likely to sulk but that's just my opinion. He seemed to take it personally that he was being challenged. I think if he sees a horse up ahead and he's on the outside, he'll be busting his tail to get there. At least we won't have to listen to 'was never looked in the eye' comments.

[blackthroatedwind]

I didn't draw any conclusions.....I just offered a possibility. One thing is for sure, his two best efforts have come while making inside runs, which is rarer than most people think. It isn't a question of the shortest route to the wire, as many horses are far more comfortable rallying outside of horses, and that is seemingly not the case with Street Sense. At the very least he is comfortable regardless of racetrack position. However, the ease with which he rallies inside, suggests he is VERY comfortable there.

My post wasn't a stance on Street Sense but an observation about how he achieved his two strongest results. In general, I think the " rail is the shortest route to the wire " concept is as deceptive a way of thinking as I know in racing. It is quite simply a misconception of race dynamics.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I see what you are saying and sure it's a possibility. But if he doesn't take the rail today and instead follows AGS I feel like he probably gets beat but still is right there. Like you know and it's been discussed a million times here, he didn't exactly sulk when prematurely moved at keeneland. he didn't finish as well but I feel like that was more to do with the trip and the way Keeneland played nearly all meet.

I don't hold the Keeneland race too much against him because of the pace of that race, they were all up and on a strong pace and he may have moved too early. It was his first two turn race. Borel kept him back a bit more in the BC and it worked better for him. I think that is the style that he will continue to employ.

[blackthroatedwind]

The Keeneland race was a pretty remarkable performance and surely showed that Street Sense can perform well under adverse circumstances. I really recommend watching that race again. He had the worst of trips and still almost won.

[the_fat_man]

Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:

Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner

1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2



Everybody feeling better now?

Rail runner, my ass. He moved too soon and he was widest of all. What else did he need to do?

Now, THIS was a giant race.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

My post wasn't a stance on Street Sense but an observation about how he achieved his two strongest results. In general, I think the " rail is the shortest route to the wire " concept is as deceptive a way of thinking as I know in racing. It is quite simply a misconception of race dynamics.

His two strongest results also happen to be his last two outings. Couldn't just be that he's getting better could it? If you know a horse is fine going up through the inside, surely it could just be a combination of a good ride plus a horse with a good head on its shoulders. My point is sure you could think the horse likes being down there but it could also quite possibly be that it's a general professionalism rather than a preference by the horse. I don't think 2 races justifies a trend. I think the 'rail's the shortest distance' is completely viable here if it's obviously going to be a catfight to the end and you know the horse's gonna do it, like it or not. You save ground because every inch matters. I don't think he needed the rail in the Juvenile but hey if it's there, again, why not?

I just feel this idea that it's a misconception of race dynamics is only a viable way of thinking if either the rail's dead or the horse doesn't like being on the inside. If the rail's fine and the horse is talented and doesn't have a problem with it, why would any other course of action be as good? Or should I say good enough to opt out of it deliberately.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's the Trakus information from the Keeneland race:

Finish pgm # PP distance (ft.) diff from winner

1 2 2 Great Hunter 5,673.3
2 1 1 Circular Quay 5,663.7 -9.6
3 7 7 Street Sense 5,711.8 +38.5
4 5 5 Birdbirdistheword 5,671.1 -2.2
5 6 6 Passport 5,681.0 +7.7
6 8 8 Bold Start 5,687.7 +14.4
7 4 4 Teuflesberg 5,661.2 -12.1
8 3 3 French Transition 5,642.1 -31.2



Everybody feeling better now?

Rail runner, my ass. He moved too soon and he was widest of all. What else did he need to do?

Now, THIS was a giant race.

I know you're desperate for any argument you can find, and you have certainly shown on this board and PaceAdvantage a pathetic need to try and contradict me, but perhaps you should read all my posts in this thread before embarrassing yourself anymore. Not that I care....as the vast majority of your posts only expose your simplistic and childlike understanding of trips. That is, of course, when you aren't just trolling for a fight.

Here's my most recent post in this thread.....

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The Keeneland race was a pretty remarkable performance and surely showed that Street Sense can perform well under adverse circumstances. I really recommend watching that race again. He had the worst of trips and still almost won.

One thing is for sure, it's a good thing you don't bet ( yes, sportsfans, the Fat Man brags about not betting on another board ).

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

His two strongest results also happen to be his last two outings. Couldn't just be that he's getting better could it? If you know a horse is fine going up through the inside, surely it could just be a combination of a good ride plus a horse with a good head on its shoulders. My point is sure you could think the horse likes being down there but it could also quite possibly be that it's a general professionalism rather than a preference by the horse. I don't think 2 races justifies a trend. I think the 'rail's the shortest distance' is completely viable here if it's obviously going to be a catfight to the end and you know the horse's gonna do it, like it or not. You save ground because every inch matters. I don't think he needed the rail in the Juvenile but hey if it's there, again, why not?

I just feel this idea that it's a misconception of race dynamics is only a viable way of thinking if either the rail's dead or the horse doesn't like being on the inside. If the rail's fine and the horse is talented and doesn't have a problem with it, why would any other course of action be as good? Or should I say good enough to opt out of it deliberately.

You seem to be arguing a point with me that I didn't make. I never made a conclusive statement, and just offered a possibility, and never even remotely suggested what you said in the first paragraph was not the case.

I am open to as many possibilities as I can imagine. However, it never hurts to at least accept the possibility that something demonstrated MAY be true. That's all.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I know you're desperate for any argument you can find, and you have certainly shown on this board and PaceAdvantage a pathetic need to try and contradict me, but perhaps you should read all my posts in this thread before embarrassing yourself anymore. Not that I care....as the vast majority of your posts only expose your simplistic and childlike understanding of trips. That is, of course, when you aren't just trolling for a fight.

Here's my most recent post in this thread.....

Everything is a personal attack to you. Can't handle the data?
Can it also possibly be the case that I have a different opinion than you do?
Exuse MOI, for voicing it.

You're wrong often enough. So am I.


We don't need theories at this point, we can just enjoy these horses.

I watch alot of races, so I like to have the facts represented as they are.

How are we doing on identifying lead changes: Picked that up yet?

"he found trouble on the rail"

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Everything is a personal attack to you. Can't handle the data?
Can it also possibly be the case that I have a different opinion than you do?
Exuse MOI, for voicing it.

You're wrong often enough. So am I.


We don't need theories at this point, we can just enjoy these horses.

I watch alot of races, so I like to have the facts represented as they are.

How are we doing on identifying lead changes: Picked that up yet?

"he found trouble on the rail"

Perhaps if you weren't agreeing with my most recent post your idiotic attack wouldn't have been quite as obvious.