Help me learn to "watch" a race

The only definitive thing that you can tell is a troubled trip IMO...."bet-back" horses that had a troubled trip in their last starts is a bit overrated and an angle that I rarely see work - although it is obviously legitimate..But, think about it...how many horses have you ever seen have a troubled trip and then they came back and won in their next starts?..You may grow really old sitting aroun and waiting to use that angle.

The best thing about watching as many races as possible IMO is just to simply gain the experience of understanding class ad understanding what a good horse looks like wen he travels....Unfortunately, that is where I find th most value in watching a lot of races nine times out of ten....just having that experinece to understand class and good horses for a particular level.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

The only definitive thing that you can tell is a troubled trip IMO...."bet-back" horses that had a troubled trip in their last starts is a bit overrated and an angle that I rarely see work - although it is obviously legitimate..But, think about it...how many horses have you ever seen have a troubled trip and then they came back and won in their next starts?..You may grow really old sitting aroun and waiting to use that angle.

The best thing about watching as many races as possible IMO is just to simply gain the experience of understanding class ad understanding what a good horse looks like wen he travels....Unfortunately, that is where I find th most value in watching a lot of races nine times out of ten....just having that experinece to understand class and good horses for a particular level.

I've been watching races a long time and alway find it interesting to hear other's thoughts. I think I understand what you say about being able to tell how a good horse looks as it travels. The part of your comment that I find difficult to understand -- and always have -- is determining "class" from watching races.

Leaving aside races where horses either dominate or are obviously over-classified, what do you look for to determine class in a racehorse when you're looking at replays?

[packerbacker7964]

I hate late breaks and break and rush. I also look for horses who raced between others and still held on for a piece.

Its so hard to tell someone everything that goes into watching a race. I wouldnt even know where to begin. But I will add something that is of the utmost importance. When watching a race the fisrt time through its natural to watch the horses that you bet on and to be emotional.
Make sure you watch the replay dispassionately. Just watch it without worrying about who you bet, thats over now. Watch the whole race as someone who is trying to learn something.
Another thing thats crucial is not to let who you bet or thought would win to temper your evaluation. I have a friend who constantly makes excuses for every horse he bets who loses. Will say things like "the jockey moved too soon" or too late, etc. If this is going to be you then please don't waste your time even bothering. I will also hear people say things like "the jockey let up on the horse in the stretch" when it has clearly been bashed 20 times with the whip and ridden to the wire. Don't watch the replay to try and make up excuses, as I said, who you bet no longer should be of the slightest concern anymore. Don't watch replays trying to come up with an alibi that doesnt exist for a horse you bet so that you can state your case to friends, etc.
Just watch dispassionately and try to see the reality of what occurred. Thats the point to the whole exercise. You aren't watching to try and create an alibi or reason the horse you bet lost. You are trying to figure out what actually occurred in the race so that the next time you can have the winner. I would point out the English Channel- Cacique race at CD as a prime example of a race where if you watched the replay you could determine that Cacique was hemmed in the whole way behind a moderate pace and came running hard. There wasn't a doubt in my mind whatsoever that he would beat EC the next time they met, none.
Its ok to bet a horse and win and admit afterwards that you got lucky and won with a horse that wasn't the best in the race. Lets face it, it happens all the time and sometimes you bet the best horse and get beat by another who had a better trip. IN those cases people will always state the case of why their horse was best in defeat. Well thats also works in reverse. Sometimes you bet a horse who wins and notice on the replay that another horse or two may have been better. Its not an admission of failure to admit that another horse in the race may have been best, its just common sense.
Try and remove the emotion completely when watching a replay and view it like you would view any science project, void of emotion and trying to learn.

[randallscott35]

I agree with Mike, I wouldn't know where to begin at all. Just set some money aside and put in the time and take a year and just soak up as much information as you can. Place some bets, don't go crazy. Trial and error. Same with watching races, its better to find tough trips that people miss. Left at the gate and checked hard on the turn is obvious to everyone and is bet accordingly. Sometimes you see subtle things and that's where watching races will pay off.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ok here is a case study..look at the ride on the 2 in the first race at belmont today fri ...wow thats a horse you can pound next out vs similar co.. 4 diffrent moves..say what you want but thats just what i look for..

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

ok here is a case study..look at the ride on the 2 in the first race at belmont today fri ...wow thats a horse you can pound next out vs similar co.. 4 diffrent moves..say what you want but thats just what i look for..

Exactly Hooves, yet the DRF comment will be rallied mildly or something to that effect. You are right, textbook example.