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#1
06-21-2006, 08:02 AM
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i look for things that make me want to give that horse a chance next out..vs same company..bad break , covered up ,checked, bad step,bad jock choices..as far as if your in the 10 hole and the jock trys to half clear on the outside and gets hammerd.you lost 4-5 lenths..have a horse the reengauges several times with a good trip will walk away last 1/8.th..i had a great example of this..baymont..last year he ran vs the same 8 horses on the turf in the first time he ran with them he was totally blocked the last 1/8th of a mile down the inside str...the jock prado didnt make it to obv..next time he ran.vs the same group..he was just about to get boxed in the same way and edgar moved him inside out and walked away at 8-1...also when you see a horse that fits the bill ...put him on your drf watch list//then next time he is entered you can cash on him..
Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 06-21-2006 at 08:22 AM. 
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#2
06-21-2006, 08:53 AM
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couple thoughts
1. The most important part of the race is the start, especially in sprints and turf races started on the straight..
2. While track bias is always important, I feel how a horse runs against it's OWN bias is critically important. A couple examples... 1, Speed-type sprinters breaking a bit poor from the inside will often dramatically improve with a middle or outside post; 2. Not all 2-turn turf races are the same, especially on a 7 furlong turf course. Races started on the straight usually produce a faster pace, especially early. Speed/Stalker types with outside posts are severely compromised in these races, often caught wide on the clubhouse turn and will generally do far better with an inside post at a longer distance out of the chute. When this situation arises for today's race, it's important to view replays not only of the horse's compromised races but also of a recent effort from an advantagous post. 3. Take trip notes on every horse. After a couple weeks, it takes only a few minutes per race. 4. If you try to play more than one or two circuits seriously, good luck! It's tough to be an expert on more than one track IMO. 5. Investing in a replay service is really cheap, if you do not have access to replays through your on-line account. I like racereplays.com. good luck!
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#3
06-21-2006, 09:26 AM
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Good discussion here guys and gals..
As some of you have mentioned, I look for "moves" within a race- that burst of acceleration that may go unnoticed to someone watching just the horses on the front and may go unappreciated if the horse making the move didn't win. Also, I watch for horses running well against a bias or a single race pace disadvantage- eg, a closer who makes a good move to reach contention in a slowly paced race.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#4
06-21-2006, 03:09 PM
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I would like to personally extend a thank you to each one of you who took the time to share your experiences and knowledge on this subject. What an informative thread!
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#5
06-22-2006, 12:33 PM
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Quote:
... I didn't share knowledge and experience ... I just made stuff up. But who can tell the difference?
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