Help me learn to "watch" a race

[blackthroatedwind]

There is no short answer....there is only a dissertation.

There is no better way to improve yourself as a handicapper than to learn to watch races well. The only way to do this is to watch races endlessly. The first thing you should do to teach yourself is watch as many races as possible, from both the pan and head-on angles, and take notes on EVERY horse in the race. Mark down what paths they are on while going around a turn ( each turn in some cases ) and also note any obvious trouble they have ( gate trouble and intrarace trouble ). A great deal of this is " make work " but over a period of time it will teach you how to watch a race.

Obvious trouble is one of the trickiest and most misunderstood occurances in racing. People tend to greatly overvalue it, especially when it happens to a horse they bet on, and invariably cost themselves money by adamantly betting such a horse back in the future. It is very important to accurately understand just how much specific trouble cost a certain horse. On this level I will give two recent examples ( and obvious ones ). Sweetnorthernsaint was bumped around at the start in the Kentucky Derby and lost not just a couple lengths with the trouble, but significantly more lengths in positioning in the race. He was six or more lengths out of position early and spent the next six furlongs working himself to a contending position. Not surprisingly he was empty late in the race. Oonagh MacCool had a similar bad start in a six horse stake at Gulfstream late in their meet, but recovered very quickly, and lost no significant position due to her start. Not surprisingly, she was still able to run her race. So, what I am trying to say, is that you cannot judge even similar trouble equally, but must analyze in every specific instance how that trouble affected a horse.

Another thing to think about is the trouble in association with a horse's overall trip. Suppose you bet a horse that saves ground behind a contentious pace in a turf race, only to be blocked when entering the stretch and forced to steady angling out. Yes, the steady may cost him ( or her ) a length or so, but think of all that was gained by the rest of that horse's trip, and all in all the horse probably got a very good trip. Many people will only point at the trouble and not understand that in the total concept things went better than average for that given horse.

" Wides " are another eternal argument. Many horses are intimidated by running inside, so while at a cursory glance you might tend to upgrade a horse that moved three wide, while downgrading a horse that stuck to the rail, the wider horse may well have had a free and unencumbered trip with the inside horse getting a trip that prevented it from running its best race. These situations can also be surface and/or very much particular horse specific. It is up to you to teach yourself to understand which situation came into play in a given race.

None of this stuff is easy, and it can be very interpretive, and you will not always make the right determination, but the more races you watch carefully the closer you will get to a desired level of understanding.

As other posters ... such as the learned Blackthroatedwind ... have and will tell you ... it's a complex subject ... but ...

... to boil it down to the two simplest factors ... they are ...

[1] Watch to see how well a horse quickens his pace when the jockey asks him to. If he accelerates quickly and moves past rivals easily ... and/or lengthens quickly if on the front end ... that's a very good sign. If he only inches up to rivals ... or fails to lengthen out ... that's bad news.

[2] Make note of the horse's time for the final furlong. Did he do it easily and in fast time? Very good. Did he have to work hard and still come home slowly? Very bad.

If a horse does well by these two criteria ... he's likely to come back and run another good race ... and vice reversa.

[Scav]

I love playing horses maidens that ran evenly the time before, meaning they just sat in 4th place the whole time...I also like playing horses that dueled with a horse inside and outside of them, if you notice, horses that are in the middle of that RARELY win the race, and most likely will pull themselves up because panic is coming from both sides....An angle this old timer taught me...

The other thing is a HARD race. You can tell an easy win from a hard win, watch the jock. If a jock works the horse feverishly all the way to the wire, I will make a mental note like 'all out' or 'all over him' and try to beat them next time

I like to follow pace but the most important thing you can sometimes tell what part of the track is dead.

[miraja2]

This is a simple thing that you probably already know, but I think a lot of new cappers make this mistake.
If a horse closes like a freight train down the stretch in a race that is say, 7f, that does NOT mean that he will automatically like going 8f in his next race.
Similiarly if a horse set the pace and was caught going 7f that does NOT automatically mean he will wire the field if he goes 6f in his next.
So how can you tell? Here is where watching races gives you a big advantage over just reading the forum. Look for some of the things the previous posters mentioned, and it will give you real insight in to the ideal distance for a horse.

[Gauchos0522]

Not so much watching races but I'm sure you have a certain track you bet on more than another. Try to watch the races and look for biases on certain days kinda what hoisttheflag said in his post. I've been making a killing doing this at my home track Del' Park. I try to play the races I have a good opinion on due to the tracks and what horses used the bias and what horses went against the bias. Just beat a 3/5 shot the other day whos last 2 wins came at Delaware on very speed and rail biased tracks (he used the bias) while a 6-1 horse came 3rd twice in a row on extremely speed biased tracks (he came from off the pace). The track 2 days ago was playing very fair and made a killing on the 6-1 horse as he flew by the chalk.

[TheSpyder]

Just woke up and thought I'd catch up on posts.

Where else can you see such detailed answers to racing with insight, objective differences, and as complete knowledge. You guys are awesome. I've played the ponies for 35 years from US to England.

Steve, you ought to make a collection of such answers and make it into a book and use the proceeds to invite everyone to Saratoga!

Good work guys/gals.

Spyder from SC