5/4 (CD): 145th Kentucky Derby Day

[moses]

I know Steve and some others like Win Win Win but him at 15-1 when Vekoma is 20-1 just seems disrespectful.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

I know Steve and some others like Win Win Win but him at 15-1 when Vekoma is 20-1 just seems disrespectful.

I think it’s because he looks like a cross between a Jesus lizard 🦎 and the Pampelmousse when he runs. You should be glad about 20-1. What’s better than your derby hoss being a good price.

[MichiganMattA]

The way Roadster popped the gate in his work on 4/20 makes me think Bob has a plan. We'll see how far he can go.

[philcski]

Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

Good field and the draw was reasonable for most of the contenders but the morning line is terrible. It's at 138% so expect some horses to float up from their original number.

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

philcski, that 138% (the total of implied probabilities) corresponds to a hypothetical takeout of 28%. The difference between that 28% and CD's 17.5% takeout isn't as big as one might expect, at least as far as putting up ML line odds goes. If you force the original ML numbers up to fit a 17.5% takeout, then OB's 4-1 would have become 9-2. GW's 5-1 becomes (almost) 6-1. A 20-1 becomes 23-1.

So while you're right that the numbers should float up a bit from the ML, the overall effect may not be very big.

I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?

At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.

My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by philcski

I don’t disagree that horse by horse the impact is relatively small... but that’s because it’s a 20 horse field. Let’s take a 3 horse field instead:
Horse A: 4/5
Horse B: 2/1
Horse C: ?

At a proper ML matching takeout, it should be 2/1. At the 138% ML, it’s 1/1, so a huge difference.

My point is on the most important race in the world, where the participants have been known for weeks, shouldn’t we have a pretty tight ML?

Too funny, philski. I just did a search, and we had a very similar discussion about a poor Derby ML almost exactly 11 years ago!

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22079

Has anything changed in 11 years?! Check it out.

Anyway, I was curious how this year's 138% compared to some of the other CD stakes races this weekend. Here's what I came up with:

Turf Classic 131%
Pat Day Mile 134%
Amer Turf 136%
Alysheba 131%

and, somewhat weirdly, the Ky Oaks, 99.8%

With a 17.5% track take, the apparent odds from the morning line should add up to 121%. So the Ky Oaks ML odds would appear to be even further off than the Derby ML odds.

At any rate, I agree that the ML should be a set of odds that actually add up to what one might see when the betting is done.

Looking forward to grousing about this again 11 years from now!

--Dunbar

[richard burch]

5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1

...those are some pretty good odds for Baffert horses.

going to BOX EX 5,6,8,11,16,17


looks like rain on Saturday....

SAT
MAY 4
Rain
66°53°
100%
NNE 10 mph 82%

[moses]

Originally Posted by richard burch

5-Improbable (City Zip), Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 6-1
16-Game Winner (Candy Ride), Bob Baffert, Joel Rosario, 5-1
17-Roadster (Quality Road), Bob Baffert, Florent Geroux, 6-1

...those are some pretty good odds for Baffert horses.

going to BOX EX 5,6,11,12,16,17

I expect Omaha to be the PT favorite. If he wins I would break even, if he comes in 2nd there is a little profit, if he comes in 3rd it will be stacks.

I like OB at the bottom of the exotics. Decent chance that he regresses a bit and/or some of the other horses peak at the right time. I’m really hoping the track ends up fast for the Derby. Will continue to monitor the weather.

[richard burch]

Who are the best "mudders" in this race?

[Konk]

Originally Posted by richard burch

Who are the best "mudders" in this race?

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=66148

[Alabama Stakes]

I read that limousine liberal fractured a sesssmoid and has been retired. He will get to live a long life on the farm.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I read that limousine liberal fractured a sesssmoid and has been retired. He will get to live a long life on the farm.

Man that sucks, Ben Colebrook did a wonderful job with this guy. $1.8 million and 4 graded stakes wins, and wasn't showing signs of slowing down.

[LITF]

**** horse racing...this **** is stupid. I don't know why I waste my time. **** this! God, these horses are bad.

[cakes44]

Rosario should be banished from riding in the Derby ever again after that botched-abortion of a ride.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I think it’s because he looks like a cross between a Jesus lizard 🦎 and the Pampelmousse when he runs. You should be glad about 20-1. What’s better than your derby hoss being a good price.

I was thinking it had more to do with casual bettors liking the name Win Win Win.

Vekoma’s Derby day odds wont have any impact on my betting strategy as I’ve got enough on him in Pool 1 & 3 at nearly twice the price. Unless he really gets no respect and floats up toward 30-1 and then maybe I’ll put some more on him.

I will probably put a win bet on Tacitus or Improbable but most of my money will go toward a trifecta bet and possibly some horizontals but still haven’t looked at the rest of the card.

[Alabama Stakes]

Since you’re covered in the win hole, maybe try to take him second and third in the tri or super for a possible big balloons score.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Since you’re covered in the win hole, maybe try to take him second and third in the tri or super for a possible big balloons score.

I think that’ll be part of my plan. A couple horses have jumped him for me but I still like his running style and think there’s a good chance he’ll be in the money. And if he wins, I’m going to be happy regardless.

The way Servis is working MS, I’m wondering if Vekoma will get an easy early lead. I don’t see any horse in the race with early speed that can rival Vekoma, other than MS and Omaha Beach.