2019 Derby Trail: Bourbon War brings Belmont field to 10

[moses]

I’m thinking...

Vekoma in the Blue Grass
Outshine in the Wood
Instagrand in the Santa Anita

[Alabama Stakes]

I’m thinking
Signalman or Dream Maker in the Blue Grass
Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby
Hoffa’s Union in the Wood
It looks like Hoffa’s Union opted for the softer spot in the Wood rather than tangle with that tough field in the Bluegrass .

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

I’m thinking
Signalman or Dream Maker in the Blue Grass
Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby
Hoffa’s Union in the Wood
It looks like Hoffa’s Union opted for the softer spot in the Wodd rather than tangle with that tough field in the Bluegrass .

I like Hoffa’s Union but it just seems like a lot to ask of him to win the Wood in his second start. I like the idea of betting against Game Winner. Roadster makes sense there too.

In the Blue Grass, I may not even wager. I like Vekoma a lot but 9/5 seems short for him there.

[Alabama Stakes]

He'll be closer to 9-1 than 9-5

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He'll be closer to 9-1 than 9-5

No he won't...and contrary to your insistent anti-NYRA stance, the Wood is a tougher race than the Blue Grass. The Blue Grass has three more starters but very little talent. It is completely up for grabs, unless Vekoma handles the 9 furlongs and runs his race....in which case he's a virtual cinch. I don't totally trust him at that distance either, but he's more talented than anyone in that weak field.

I highly doubt any reasonable person here thinks the Blue Grass is a tougher field than the Wood.

[knickslions2]

Im not even a reasonable person and the Wood is way stronger field than the Blue Grass. Very good betting race.

As for the Blue Grass I think Vekoma will run well and needed the last race. Win Win Win is another I want to see how the distance goes for him. That Tampa race wasnt the best trip. I think the horse could be factor in this race.

[casp0555]

For the Wood, I am looking hard at Final Jeopardy to fit in my wagering, if he can tuck inside with Tax and just behind Overdeliver and NTB on the lead, then he might just pick up a piece or more. and having Franco up adds a lot...to me anyways

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

He'll be closer to 9-1 than 9-5

Outside of WinWinWins 99 at 7F he basically towers this field in figures and his last was a really good effort particularly when you consider the lay-off. He’s going to be a short price. I’ll be including a couple “clever” horses maybe but I think you’re way off here at least regarding odds.

[Alabama Stakes]

Well Morning lines aren’t always accurate. In the Wood there is a maiden breaker who is 6-1 book in that supposedly stellar field. Or is that 6-1 another soft morning line that has been the norm since Donovan stopped making them. ? If Vekoma is 3-1 or less, he would be a strong bet against. I think the fave will be 4-1 or more in the Bluegrass.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Well Morning lines aren’t always accurate. In the Wood there is a maiden breaker who is 6-1 book in that supposedly stellar field. Or is that 6-1 another soft morning line that has been the norm since Donovan stopped making them. ? If Vekoma is 3-1 or less, he would be a strong bet against. I think the fave will be 4-1 or more in the Bluegrass.

Nobody said it was a "stellar field." It is a deeper/stronger field than the Blue Grass. That is what was said. That "maiden breaker" ran a huge figure, won by 15+ lengths, and would have been a shorter price in the Blue Grass. Nice shot at the ML, from NYRA of course, despite you saying Vekoma would be at least 5.5:1 ( i.e. closer to 9:1 than 9:5 ), which of course is idiotic. At least you only hedged a little with your new opinion.

Sorry I couldn't get those Phish tickets you asked for on Whitney afternoon a decade ago. I'm sorry for you that you have allowed this to morph into a tragic obsession against me and NYRA, and all associated people/things.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

I like Hoffa’s Union but it just seems like a lot to ask of him to win the Wood in his second start. I like the idea of betting against Game Winner. Roadster makes sense there too.

In the Blue Grass, I may not even wager. I like Vekoma a lot but 9/5 seems short for him there.

After watching Hoffa's union drifting down the lane and on gallop out, I would need 15-1 to play.

Regarding Vekoma. If you watch the head on of the fountain of youth, maybe you could explain his action. To me his left front is like an egg beater. It goes way left before coming down . Like a left hook as opposed to a jab. He really had no excuse after a perfect trip and was life and death to nail Hidden Scroll for third in that 7 second last 1/16. My brother loves him too because of the way the track is playing . He says no more than 5/2, but with a 14 hoss field, I find it hard to believe that some crooked running guy is so low in price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

After watching Hoffa's union drifting down the lane and on gallop out, I would need 15-1 to play.

Regarding Vekoma. If you watch the head on of the fountain of youth, maybe you could explain his action. To me his left front is like an egg beater. It goes way left before coming down . Like a left hook as opposed to a jab. He really had no excuse after a perfect trip and was life and death to nail Hidden Scroll for third in that 7 second last 1/16. My brother loves him too because of the way the track is playing . He says no more than 5/2, but with a 14 hoss field, I find it hard to believe that some crooked running guy is so low in price.

I think he’s just got a funky stride. The FOY was off the lay-off. He should be ready to go today.

[RHT2004]

Vekoma is just Ok. I'm 4 deep and didn't cover him today. I used 1 6 7 11.
Tacitus marches on as the Derby chalk.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Vekoma is just Ok. I'm 4 deep and didn't cover him today. I used 1 6 7 11.
Tacitus marches on as the Derby chalk.

4 Deep in what??? You had the 52-1 Horse???? Paco's Mom didn't even bet that one.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Vekoma is just Ok. I'm 4 deep and didn't cover him today. I used 1 6 7 11.
Tacitus marches on as the Derby chalk.

Tacitus needs to get keep better to win derby which he can but he’s not there yet. That wood wasn’t very fast and only tax showed up. Vekoma needs to run straight but that was good prep. Win Win Win ran pretty good and can improve next race. If game winner wins SA derby he will be chalk. Derby is still wide open and can’t wait to try to figure it out.

[moses]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Vekoma is just Ok. I'm 4 deep and didn't cover him today. I used 1 6 7 11.
Tacitus marches on as the Derby chalk.

Just my opinion but he looked very impressive today. Not sure if he’ll be chalk but I like how things played out today.

I’ve been out on Game Winner as the derby favorite. He doesn’t get good early position and runs wide a lot. I like the horse but he runs in small fields and still doesn’t get ideal trips. I thought he should have won today but was 4 wide the entire race.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

I think he’s just got a funky stride. The FOY was off the lay-off. He should be ready to go today.

Good job Mo. you certainly were right on about Vekoma. It still looks to me like he’s about to fall over to me but he runs fast . Congratulations, hope you scored.