TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There’s a better chance of you being Justify’s jockey than there is that he’d be the third choice in that race.

Perhaps(not the jockey part)....
But remember,the morning line maker has to anticipate how the public will bet the race.
The first factor to consider is the betting publics love of betting the class of the race............especially Gr.1 horses vs. non graded types.
History shows they pound the class runners.
Secondly,lets try this:
Throw out the three horses names for just a second.
Horse "A" is a double Grade 1 winner.............the 2yo Champion who just ran giant in a race he badly needed.
Horse "B" is nearly undefeated,already a Grade 1 winner.........who just refused to let the Eclipse Award winning Champion by him in the stretch.
Horse "C" has looked lights out both times,just galloping...........but those wins came in a Maiden race & AlwOC(in the mud).
Also factor in that horses "A"/"B" are the top two rated 3yo's out there.
So all things considered, is it really that big a reach to say horse "C" would be a well respected third choice lining up next to horses "A" & "B" ?