'17 CROWN TRAIL THREAD: Always Dreaming; Cloud Computing; Tapwrit

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Going out on quite the limb there saying the horse that's gonna be like the 5th choice won't win in a 20 horse field.

but really, I feel more confident in saying he will not win the derby than saying who the winner actually will be. Until the post draw the odds are slightly off now. You know who ever gets the 1,2 or 3 shoot is done.

Ferdinand was the last horse to win from the far inside post (in 1986), and you have to go back to Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978 to find a Derby winner that broke from gate No. 2.

- Overall, posts 1 through 4 have a 7.3 percent win rate but Super Saver (2010) is the only winner in the last 17 runnings.

The outside of the gate has had great success in recent years. The auxiliary gate (15-20) has had eight of the last 17 winners, including the aforementioned American Pharoah, I’ll Have Another (post 19, 2012), Animal Kingdom (post 16, 2011) and Big Brown (post 20, 2008).



https://www.americasbestracing.net/t...ns-the-numbers

but I have some thoughts on that.


and don't we get a Japan horse in the field every year?

Epicharis Earns Japan's Kentucky Derby Bid
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...ucky-derby-bid