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#1
02-26-2017, 10:59 AM
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Odds going into last day...with $136K in win pool.
Horse, ML, SunMornOdds 1. Always Dreaming* 50-1, 38-1 2. American Anthem 15-1, 16-1 3. Battalion Runner 20-1, 52-1 4. Classic Empire 8-1, 8-1 5. El Areeb 20-1, 18-1 6. Epicharis (Jpn)* 30-1, 46-1 7. Gormley 15-1, 16-1 8. Guest Suite (g) 50-1, 61-1 9. Gunnevera 20-1, 19-1 10. Iliad* (r) 15-1, 33-1 11. Irish War Cry 12-1, 7-1 12. Local Hero* 50-1, 54-1 13. Malagacy 30-1, 46-1 14. Mastery 10-1, 7-1 15. McCraken 8-1, 5-1 16. Mo Town 15-1, 16-1 17. One Liner* 15-1, 14-1 18. Petrov 30-1, 82-1 19. Practical Joke 20-1, 22-1 20. Royal Mo* 15-1, 36-1 21. State of Honor 50-1, 230-1 22. Tapwrit* 20-1, 24-1 23. Wild Shot 50-1, 156-1 24. Mutuel Field/All Others 4-1, 7-1
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson Last edited by Dunbar : 02-26-2017 at 11:01 AM. Reason: added win pool size 
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#3
02-26-2017, 04:46 PM
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Quote:
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#4
02-26-2017, 04:47 PM
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OAKS CLOSES 6:30: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/...ager/oaks-pool
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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#5
02-26-2017, 05:02 PM
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CLOSING KDFW ODDS
Always Dreaming 50/1 40 American Anthem 15/1 16 Battalion Runner 20/1 35 Classic Empire 8/1 11 El Areeb 20/1 20 Epicharis (JPN) 30/1 40 Gormley 15/1 18 Guest Suite 50/1 60 Gunnevera 20/1 21 Iliad 15/1 24 Irish War Cry 12/1 7 Local Hero 50/1 70 Malagacy 30/1 50 Mastery 10/1 8 McCraken 8/1 6 Mo Town 15/1 25 One Liner 15/1 12 Petrov 30/1 70 Practical Joke 20/1 19 Royal Mo 15/1 35 State of Honor 50/1 99 Tapwrit 20/1 22 Wild Shot 50/1 99 A/Other 3yo's 4/1 5
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984. Last edited by Kasept : 02-26-2017 at 05:18 PM.
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#6
02-27-2017, 10:25 AM
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KDFW Pool 3 Will-Pays:
1 Always Dreaming* 42-1 $86.40 2 American Anthem 16-1 $34.60 3 Battalion Runner 34-1 $70.60 4 Classic Empire 11-1 $24.40 5 El Areeb 20-1 $42.40 6 Epicharis (Jpn)* 41-1 $84.80 7 Gormley 18-1 $39.00 8 Guest Suite (g) 60-1 $123.40 9 Gunnevera 22-1 $46.00 10 Iliad* (r) 24-1 $51.40 11 Irish War Cry 7-1 $16.80 12 Local Hero* 72-1 $147.80 13 Malagacy 53-1 $109.20 14 Mastery 8-1 $18.40 15 McCraken 6-1 $15.60 16 Mo Town 27-1 $57.20 17 One Liner* 12-1 $26.60 18 Petrov 73-1 $148.80 19 Practical Joke 19-1 $40.40 20 Royal Mo* 36-1 $74.00 21 State of Honor 198-1 $399.40 22 Tapwrit* 22-1 $46.40 23 Wild Shot 120-1 $242.80 24 All Others 5-1 $12.40 from: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...l-Pays_._2.pdf
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Curlin and Hard Spun finish 1,2 in the 2007 BC Classic, demonstrating how competing in all three Triple Crown races ruins a horse for the rest of the year...see avatar photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson Last edited by Dunbar : 02-27-2017 at 10:27 AM. Reason: added source
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#7
02-27-2017, 12:29 PM
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El Areeb seems far and away the best value at 20-1. Whether or not you particularly like him in the Derby (I personally think he's legit), the 3YO competition in New York is such that two more blowout wins in the Gotham and the Wood are a reasonable possibility. If that happens, he'll be 6-1 tops in the Derby.
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#8
02-27-2017, 02:03 PM
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Quote:
First of all, he likely be higher than 6:1, but even if he is, if he's 1:2 in the Gotham and even money in the Wood ( unlikely but I'll give it to you ), he's less than 5% to win the Derby.....or 20:1. An awful lot of "ifs" to get there. I get it, they're all bad value, but his is not special. My guess is he's about 25% at best to win both the Gotham and Wood, and then about 12:1 in the Derby...which makes him about 50:1 to win the Derby....and that's in a best case scenario.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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