Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > The Charles Hatton Reading Room
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-16-2006, 01:02 PM
Bold Brooklynite
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I'm not sure if it is true that no horse has won the derby with such an early start. I'd like to see the data on that.
In the 1940's, 1950's and 1960's ... there were 26 champions ... of all ages and sex ... who made their 2YO debuts in February, March, or April.

25 of them had full, injury-free careers ... of the 26 ... only Hail To Reason had his career compromised by injury.

The best strategy was ... is ... and always will be ... to run them early and often. Young horses must learn what it means to be professional athletes ... and must be raced into proper condition to accomplish that.

"Spacing" races and running horses "fresh" ... only produces the type of china dolls ... like Barbaro ... who can't physically or mentally handle the pressure of G1 racing.

As to Mr. Pletcher ... what else is new? He always has stables full of the best-bred horses ... and has rightfully become known as the "King Of The MSW Sprints." But when the 2YO colts have to go two turns in G1 races ... or the older colts have to go 10f ... it's bye-bye Toddie.

Every year he sets a new record for Triple Crown nominess ... and every year he comes up empty. He's a very accomplished trainer ... and a real nice guy ... but he's never developed a colt into a champion at classic distances ... though he's had several hundred opportunites to do so. Maybe some day he will ... so please wake me from my nap when he does.

Last edited by Bold Brooklynite : 06-16-2006 at 01:05 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 06-16-2006, 01:06 PM
boldruler
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
In the 1940's, 1950's and 1960's ... there were 26 champions ... of all ages and sex ... who made their 2YO debuts in February, March, or April.

25 of them had full, injury-free careers ... of the 26 ... only Hail To Reason had his career compromised by injury.

The best strategy was ... is ... and always will be ... to run them early and often. Young horses must learn what it means to be professional athletes ... and must be raced into proper condition to accomplish that.

"Spacing" races and running horses "fresh" ... only produces the type of china dolls ... like Barbaro ... who can't physically or mentally handle the pressure of G1 racing.

As to Mr. Pletcher ... what else is new? He always has stables full of the best-bred horses ... and has rightfully become known as the "King Of The MSW Sprints." But when the 2YO colts have to go two turns in G1 races ... or the older colts have to go 10f ... it's bye-bye Toddie.

Every year he sets a new record for Triple Crown nominess ... and every year he comes up empty. He's a very accomplished trainer ... and a real nice guy ... but he's never developed a colt into a champion at classic distances ... though he's had several hundred opportunites to do so. Maybe some day he will ... so please wake me from my nap when he does.
Horses today are much more fragile than they were back then. Drugs and breeding have left us with 2yr olds that need time to develop.

Your Barbaro "China doll" comment is perhaps the dumbest thing I have ever read. Get a life.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 06-16-2006, 01:54 PM
Bold Brooklynite
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by boldruler
Horses today are much more fragile than they were back then. Drugs and breeding have left us with 2yr olds that need time to develop.

Your Barbaro "China doll" comment is perhaps the dumbest thing I have ever read. Get a life.
You may be right ... do you know of any statistically reliable studies which support the proposition that today's horses are more fragile? I'd be interested in learning more ... and perhaps other Forum members would too ... if you can point us towards the right data.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 06-16-2006, 01:58 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
Del Mar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 5,102
Default

Pletcher has another nice 2 year old running today in the 8th race at Churchill. Her name is Chagall. I saw her work at the FS 2 year old sale in Florida. She worked an 1/8th in :10 2/5. She looks like she can reall run. They bought her out of that sale for $825,000.
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 06-16-2006, 01:59 PM
boldruler
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
You may be right ... do you know of any statistically reliable studies which support the proposition that today's horses are more fragile? I'd be interested in learning more ... and perhaps other Forum members would too ... if you can point us towards the right data.

I will take the word of the guys at Three Chimneys. Any study would be unreliable because they just don't run as often in their careers. The data suggests that horses careers are now shorter than they were, across all levels.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 06-16-2006, 02:01 PM
Kasept's Avatar
Kasept Kasept is offline
Steve Byk
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Greenwich, NY
Posts: 44,512
Default

On the Thoro-Graph "Ask the Experts" forum, there's been a lot about this... Some of Jerry's Kids have been doing various studies, analyses on the tpoic.. Haven't seen the conclusions though...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad
A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 06-16-2006, 02:11 PM
Bold Brooklynite
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by boldruler
I will take the word of the guys at Three Chimneys. Any study would be unreliable because they just don't run as often in their careers. The data suggests that horses careers are now shorter than they were, across all levels.
The shorter careers may be due to factors other than physical fragility. I'm mainly referring to racing at the G1 level.

It's clear that G1-level horses are raced far less than in the past ... but I don't think it's because they're any more fragile. In the past ... horses who began their racing careers early on ... and who raced frequently ... tended to stay sounder longer.

Maybe it was Darwinian in that they were the sounder specimens to begin with ... but I believe that being a G1 professional athlete requires extraordinary physical and mental training ... which today's horses simply aren't getting.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 06-16-2006, 02:23 PM
boldruler
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bold Brooklynite
The shorter careers may be due to factors other than physical fragility. I'm mainly referring to racing at the G1 level.

It's clear that G1-level horses are raced far less than in the past ... but I don't think it's because they're any more fragile. In the past ... horses who began their racing careers early on ... and who raced frequently ... tended to stay sounder longer.

Maybe it was Darwinian in that they were the sounder specimens to begin with ... but I believe that being a G1 professional athlete requires extraordinary physical and mental training ... which today's horses simply aren't getting.
Don't see how you can do a study on just G1 horses. Pletcher did just have to euthanize Venetian Sunset, one of his top 4yr olds, so there is another quality horse that went down, but I don't know if it was a bad step or just a fragile horse. I believe VS was plagued by injuries his entire career, but not positive on that one.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 06-16-2006, 02:00 PM
SentToStud's Avatar
SentToStud SentToStud is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,065
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by boldruler
Horses today are much more fragile than they were back then. Drugs and breeding have left us with 2yr olds that need time to develop.

Your Barbaro "China doll" comment is perhaps the dumbest thing I have ever read. Get a life.
I also got a chuckle out of the Barbaro/China Doll comment. But I wouldn't think it's far dumber than some of the other comments on this thread, a couple of yours included. You've gone far out of your way to be critical of others discussing a colt's impressive debut. You were wrong about the colt being 3/5 (paid $4.20) and you're probably wrong about him being 6/5 in the Sanford.

It's really meaningless to infer or say as you did that a debut at 5.5f is useless for a 2yo in terms of prepping for his 3yo season. Next year is so far away that sort of comment sounds silly to me. It's obvious the colt was ready and Pletcher decided -- correctly -- that yesterday's race was the right place to start.

Nobody proclaimed him a Triple Crown winner. He's just a very nice colt who ran a super debut.

good luck.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 09-05-2006, 03:09 AM
SentToStud's Avatar
SentToStud SentToStud is offline
Arlington Park
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 4,065
Default

just for fun... here's the original Cirqular Quay thread. Though he's faster and better now, I still think his maiden win was his most impressive race.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.