9/24 (PRX): Cotillion (G1), PA Derby (G2), Gallant Bob (G3)

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

looks like easy pickins in the pick tickets at Parx sat with the songbird single and the usual suspects in the Pa Derby ( triple crown colts and CUPID)

any thoughts to narrow down the play and make it a dollar wager..

I like Baffert here...he seems to have all tyhe right "juice" as we head toward a BC out there on the western island...although with the removal of the polly mandate its not so much an island anymore..

so who do you like at PArx sat 9-24

Cupid should be 30-1 in that race.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Cupid should be 30-1 in that race.

The race looks disappointing on paper. Only Nyquist and Exaggerator warrant any serious respect on past performance, but both are in questionable form.

O'Neill finally has voiced what many had grumbled about after the Preakness and Haskell. Why was the horse being sent given his settled performances in the BC and the Kentucky Derby? Hopefully, they follow through an try to adopt a stalking position in here with some decent front-running speed from Cupid and presumably Summer Revolution. The concern is that the lemon has been squeezed dry, if not by his races, then by his workout tab, which is utterly ridiculous. 4 mile workouts of increasing speed just seems like overkill, and O'Neill may be changing things up too much despite the colt going undefeated in his first 8 starts.

Exaggerator has caused concern with some poor workouts and poor races, but how much of that is Kent Desormeaux? I think a lot of it is him, particularly the Belmont and Travers. Horse wouldn't have won either, but in the Travers he seemed to be making a bid and Desormeaux didn't follow through in what turned out to be a lopsided race anyhow. His recent work is sharp and whether or not he prefers the mud is immaterial, he's good enough on a fast track. However, its all moot, because his race simply depends on Desormeaux's mindset during the actual race.

Sunny Ridge looked interesting as a possible upsetter for about 5 seconds, until one notes all the layoff lines, including following his most recent (which was also off a layoff). Despite the layoff, he has just a single work since his last in the last 6 weeks. Not counting on that.

The only thing to consider with Cupid is whether or not, being by Tapit, Coolmore elects to bring him back out as a 4yo in order to try and earn a Grade 1. Physically, he might not be able to anyways. I guess if he can beat two Classic winners in the same race they can call it a day without the Grade 1. Would save me from having to watch any further horrific stretch runs from this horse.

[Pants II]

Songbird has to bounce hard or the comp has to have a career number to beat her.

Penn Derby I'm going with the Travers bounce and using 1,10,12 primarily and chalk saver with Nyquist.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Cupid should be 30-1 in that race.

I wouldn't take him at 30-1 either.

Paul

[Secretriat34]

Trainer John Servis has a plan. - Cathryn Sophia

"I can't give away my strategy," Servis coyly responded when asked what instruction he will give jockey Javier Castellano in their attempt to thwart the beautiful force that is champion filly Songbird.

Part of what Servis is counting on headed into in the $1 million Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) Sept. 24 at Parx Racing is the fact Songbird has yet to hook a rival who offers what his Longines Kentucky Oaks (gr. I)-winning charge, Cathryn Sophia, brings to the table.
Cash is King's Cathryn Sophia looms as a new threat who could throw a previously unseen wrinkle at the bay daughter of Medaglia d'Oro.

In addition to owning two wins over the Parx surface, including her 6 1/2-length win in the Princess of Sylmar Stakes on Sept. 3, Maryland-bred Cathryn Sophia has flaunted her own fearsome level of tactical brilliance, earning her six career victories by a combined winning margin of 50 3/4 lengths.

Even her two defeats have been admirable efforts, running third in both the April 9 Central Bank Ashland Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland and the June 11 Acorn Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park.

"I wonder if (Songbird) has hooked into a filly as good as mine," Servis said.

"But she came into her last race (at Parx) really well and I couldn't have written the script any better. She didn't have to put out too much of an effort to get the win and I think it will set her up good for this race coming up."

"We freshened her up (after the Acorn) and she needed that," Servis said. "It should be very interesting this Saturday."

SOUNDS LIKE KASEPT NEEDS SERVIS ON HIS RADIO SHOW ...NO ?

[Secretriat34]

In most of Nyquist’s 10 starts, the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner has led or raced closed to the leaders early, but trainer Doug O’Neill doesn’t believe last year’s champion juvenile male needs to be close early to be successful.

After all, when a rough start forced the issue, Nyquist did rally from eighth to win last year’s Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) at Keeneland.


O’Neill anticipates a more relaxed approach early in the $1.25 million Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) at 1 1/8 miles Sept. 24 at Parx Racing. .

“I’d definitely like to see him off the pace," the trainer said.

“I think whether we drew the one or the nine in the Pennsylvania Derby, all of Team Reddam, all of Team Nyquist, we’ve all been thinking that the only way we’re going to find ourselves on the lead is if they just hand it to us. That’s the thinking going into it. Once they leave the gate, it’s up to Mario and Nyquist of course, but the angle here is to let the race unfold and go get them late.”


MAYBE ONEIL TOO ON THE RADIO ?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

In most of Nyquist’s 10 starts, the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner has led or raced closed to the leaders early, but trainer Doug O’Neill doesn’t believe last year’s champion juvenile male needs to be close early to be successful.

After all, when a rough start forced the issue, Nyquist did rally from eighth to win last year’s Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) at Keeneland.


O’Neill anticipates a more relaxed approach early in the $1.25 million Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) at 1 1/8 miles Sept. 24 at Parx Racing. .

“I’d definitely like to see him off the pace," the trainer said.

“I think whether we drew the one or the nine in the Pennsylvania Derby, all of Team Reddam, all of Team Nyquist, we’ve all been thinking that the only way we’re going to find ourselves on the lead is if they just hand it to us. That’s the thinking going into it. Once they leave the gate, it’s up to Mario and Nyquist of course, but the angle here is to let the race unfold and go get them late.”


MAYBE ONEIL TOO ON THE RADIO ?

They only go 9 fr at Parx for PA Derby but looking at 8.5 fr they have run 6 races in 2016. Of those 4 have been Wire jobs 0-0 and in the other 3 were 2-.5, 2.5-1.5, 1-.1. So depending on what team Nyquist means as off the pace they may be putting him up against it with this strategy.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

Trainer John Servis has a plan. - Cathryn Sophia

What? Purchase Beholder privately, ship her to Parx, and try and get by the horse identifier?

Actually, that might work at Parx.

"I can't give away my strategy," Servis coyly responded when asked what instruction he will give jockey Javier Castellano in their attempt to thwart the beautiful force that is champion filly Songbird.

I guess he can send and float Songbird 6 or 7 wide if he was so inclined. That might set it up for Carina Mia, but probably won't help Cathryn Sophia win the race.

Part of what Servis is counting on headed into in the $1 million Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) Sept. 24 at Parx Racing is the fact Songbird has yet to hook a rival who offers what his Longines Kentucky Oaks (gr. I)-winning charge, Cathryn Sophia, brings to the table.

What is that exactly, a bunch of facile wins at second tier tracks and one-turn victories at what-happens-at-Gulfstream-doesn't-happen-outside-Gulfstream?

Cash is King's Cathryn Sophia looms as a new threat who could throw a previously unseen wrinkle at the bay daughter of Medaglia d'ora.

I can't wrap my head around this statement. What does "throwing an unseen wrinkle" entail exactly? Does Servis plan to kidnap Mike Smith, make a latex mold of his face, and replace him on race day with a Smith-masked Betty White?

In addition to owning two wins over the Parx surface, including her 6 1/2-length win in the Princess of Sylmar Stakes on Sept. 3, Maryland-bred Cathryn Sophia has flaunted her own fearsome level of tactical brilliance, earning her six career victories by a combined winning margin of 50 3/4 lengths.

Two wins at Parx, eh? That's like being proud you've been to prison twice.

Even her two defeats have been admirable efforts, running third in both the April 9 Central Bank Ashland Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland and the June 11 Acorn Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park.

Tell that to the folks who bet her down to odds-on in those races.

"I wonder if (Songbird) has hooked into a filly as good as mine," Servis said.

The answer is: yes, Carina Mia.

"But she came into her last race (at Parx) really well and I couldn't have written the script any better. She didn't have to put out too much of an effort to get the win and I think it will set her up good for this race coming up."

This is the difference between Cathryn Sophia and Songbird: Songbird wins races over graded stakes winning fillies at top tier tracks the way Cathryn Sophia won a race at Parx over Disco Rose and Queena Esther. Cathryn Sophia beat many Songbird also-rans in the Kentucky Oaks, but didn't look particularly good doing it, shifting back to her left lead under a drive in deep stretch. In similar scenarios, Smith would have the reins dangling and Songbird geared down to a lope approaching the wire.

"We freshened her up (after the Acorn) and she needed that," Servis said. "It should be very interesting this Saturday."

Yep, we should be able to see where Cathryn Sophia fits in terms of the BC Filly and Mare Sprint after the race.

[Kasept]

iiiOOOOOOOOO!!!

Old school DT.. Many pies..

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What? Purchase Beholder privately, ship her to Parx, and try and get by the horse identifier?

Actually, that might work at Parx.


I guess he can send and float Songbird 6 or 7 wide if he was so inclined. That might set it up for Carina Mia, but probably won't help Cathryn Sophia win the race.


What is that exactly, a bunch of facile wins at second tier tracks and one-turn victories at what-happens-at-Gulfstream-doesn't-happen-outside-Gulfstream?


I can't wrap my head around this statement. What does "throwing an unseen wrinkle" entail exactly? Does Servis plan to kidnap Mike Smith, make a latex mold of his face, and replace him on race day with a Smith-masked Betty White?


Two wins at Parx, eh? That's like being proud you've been to prison twice.


Tell that to the folks who bet her down to odds-on in those races.


The answer is: yes, Carina Mia.


This is the difference between Cathryn Sophia and Songbird: Songbird wins races over graded stakes winning fillies at top tier tracks the way Cathryn Sophia won a race at Parx over Disco Rose and Queena Esther. Cathryn Sophia beat many Songbird also-rans in the Kentucky Oaks, but didn't look particularly good doing it, shifting back to her left lead under a drive in deep stretch. In similar scenarios, Smith would have the reins dangling and Songbird geared down to a lope approaching the wire.


Yep, we should be able to see where Cathryn Sophia fits in terms of the BC Filly and Mare Sprint after the race.

Great Post.....

[OldDog]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Great Post.....

He's on a roll...

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Great Post.....

Yup. No west coast bias at all from him.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Yup. No west coast bias at all from him.

Garbage comment. Where's the "west coast bias"? What? Because I said Songbird is the best horse in the Cotillion? She has more Grade 1 wins in New York than she does in California this year.

Or is it because I mocked John Servis, who skipped all the major filly races this summer despite the horse training forwardly at Saratoga. He could have tried Songbird there, or at least opt for the Test, but instead sat on her. He admits he's been waiting to catch Songbird while that one comes across country for the umpteenth time and after a tough campaign in NY. How sporting when you have presumably a horse every bit as good as Songbird.

Just to cover his bases, in the event that Cathryn Sophia loses, he's also stated that the Cotillion could be "her last race". Yawn.

[Secretriat34]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What? Purchase Beholder privately, ship her to Parx, and try and get by the horse identifier?

Actually, that might work at Parx.

VERY FUNNY !!

[Secretriat34]

OKAY OKAY...so we have covered all that has to be typed about the Cotillion and the Derby..BUT WHAT ABOUT THESE THREE

GIVE ME SOME OF YOUR GREAT INSIGHTS ON THESE 3.....PLEASE


7th (3:12) Alphabet Soup H.
1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Bern' James Bern Lopez P 116 L
2 Forest Rim Potts C L 117 L
3 Granny's Kitten Geroux F 121 L
4 I'll Call Carmouche K 118 L
5 Raging Market Conner T 117 L
6 Vito Tony N Billy Corujo W 111 L
7 Uncle Dave Vargas J A Jr 122 L
8 Edge of Reality Rose J 122 L
9 Pink Elephant Wolfsont A 112 L
10 Willy d'Rocket Pennington F 116 L
11 Forward Thinker Smith M E 117 L
A-Coupled: Forest Rim and Forward Thinker

8th (3:41) Gallant Bob S. (G3)
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 Mind Your Biscuits 122 L
2 Threefiveindia Castellano J J 120 L
3 Navy Hymn Bejarano R 118 L
4 Noholdingback Bear Da Silva E R 120 L
5 Counterforce Geroux F 120 L
6 Full Salute Pennington F 118 L
7 Awesome Speed Lopez P 120 L
8 Cocked and Loaded Silvera R 118 L
9 Yellow Chips Bravo J 118 L
10 Cardio Cowboy Carmouche K 118 L
11 Klingon Warrior Lopez C C 118 L
12 Who's Out Smith M E 118 L
A-Coupled: Full Salute and Yellow Chips



9th (4:14) Pa Derby Champion S.
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Cyrus Alexander Bejarano R 121 L
2 Encryption Juarez N 121 L
3 Bodhisattva Hole T M 119 L
4 Res Judicata Castellano J J 121 L
5 Mr. Jordan Lopez P 119 L
6 War Story Pennington F 119 Blk-On L
7 Tale of Life (JPN) Geroux F 121 L

[Secretriat34]

RACE 7 Picks

2 Forest Rim Potts C L 117 L - 2nd fastest, 6 ITM at distance

7 Uncle Dave Vargas J A Jr 122 L - 3 wins on the track, fastest may bounce off last

4 I'll Call Carmouche K 118 L - fast
5 Raging Market Conner T 117 L - good ITM at the distance
9 Pink Elephant Wolfsont A 112 L - good ITM at the distance
10 Willy d'Rocket Pennington F 116 L - good ITM at the distance

[Secretriat34]

race 9

2) biscuits - won Gr2 amsterdam
4) navy hymn -3 for 3 at distance
5) bear -fastest 3-3-0-0 at dist

not sure what to make of the
10) klingon -2 wins at parx low price races, but he fires bullets in works..maybe 7) awesome speed, in preakness(8th) 2nd by nose in Tesio

[taxicab]

Under the category of strange but true:
If Cupid takes down the PA Derby he will have more Graded Stakes wins than any other 3yo C/G this year.

[Secretriat34]

i was alive in the pick4 going into the PA derby to 4 colts..exxagerator, Nyquist, Cupid, and Gun Runner....felt pretty good before the race...wouldn't you ?
I had to drop Connect for price resaons...ARRGGGRRGG

my big winner on the card..

my 60 cent super in the catillion ...paid 85 cents...pffttt..

85 cents...outta be a rule, minimum pay out 1 dollar.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by NTAMM1225

Cupid should be 30-1 in that race.

Originally Posted by pweizer

I wouldn't take him at 30-1 either.

Why no love for Cupid? (couldn't resist)

But, seriously, I would be all over Cupid at 30-1. Would be happy to get 12-1.