5/2 (CD): 141st Kentucky Derby (G1); 6 Graded Stakes Undercard

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

The track was definitely playing slow LA Derby day

I wouldn't put much stock in that -- the splits seemed, if anything, a touch on the quick side throughout the day compared to most days there, and Stanford set the slowest half-mile split of the day. Even accounting for the longer 9f trip, it seemed pretty soft, considering that LA-bred horses going two turns were clocking :47.4 and :48 flat when those types would consistently go :49 or slower most days of the meet.

Not making figs and such, there is obviously room for error in the above opinion, but at no point on that whole card did I get the feeling that things were playing slowly -- if anything, a bit in the opposite direction, if that's worth anything.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I wouldn't put much stock in that -- the splits seemed, if anything, a touch on the quick side throughout the day compared to most days there, and Stanford set the slowest half-mile split of the day. Even accounting for the longer 9f trip, it seemed pretty soft, considering that LA-bred horses going two turns were clocking :47.4 and :48 flat when those types would consistently go :49 or slower most days of the meet.

Not making figs and such, there is obviously room for error in the above opinion, but at no point on that whole card did I get the feeling that things were playing slowly -- if anything, a bit in the opposite direction, if that's worth anything.

I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

I should have qualified that more clearly - I didn't find the track to be souped up like many big racing days - it was more fair than anything - so relative to what I had expected it, it seemed to me to be on the slowish side of fair. But again, that was just my impression, the first time ever being there live - I certainly appreciate your perspective.

I would suggest that it's difficult to gauge Stanford's half mile split against the day as he was essentially handed a very easy lead from the break. He seems to me to be a horse that wants no part of anything more than a mile, and may even better suited as a pressing-type sprinter - Can't blame the connections for taking a shot - they earned it - but also had to envision him not finishing close to last either...

Got ya, and I totally agree on all counts.

A couple of early races were super fast early for the level, but all in all even if the track was playing a bit "fast," it was definitely not as fast as you'd often expect from a track on a big day. Maybe a few lengths faster than normal, but still slow in relation to what you see in some other places.

[TouchOfGrey]

Pletcher's Stanford 50/50 for Derby

[ateamstupid]

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

OK, I now have to move the X I had through Stanford in to Frammento's column.

[knickslions2]

Frammento is a good superfecta add on. Stanford was going to be pace factor for sure and probably finish near last.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

and AP moves to the winless post 17...........

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Stanford out, Frammento is in. First time the '21' saddlecloth will be used since they capped the field.

Lavender, with dark blue numbers/letters

[Port Conway Lane]

Projected derby favoritism based on the oaks derby double payout per dollar from #7 in first leg
American Pharoah28
Dortmund40
Frosted86
Carpe Diem91
Firing Line95
Mubtaahij110
Materiality117
Upstart148
International Star195
American Pharoah and Dortmund are clearly 1 and 2.
Frosted projects to be a close 3rd choice over Carpe Diem
Firing Line and Mubtaahij currently have a clear edge over Materiality
Upstart figures a slight edge over International Star.