Derby-Oaks Weekend Beyers

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

Still I don't get how the derby was assigned a 104, that's fine I will gladly stick to not knowing and use this as leverage when people do blindly bet to this relatively "high" number.

Derby horses are overbet regardless of whether the number is 120 or 90.

[parsixfarms]

What was the figure for Pickapocket's allowance win (8.5F in 1:43.2)?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

What was the figure for Pickapocket's allowance win (8.5F in 1:43.2)?

99

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

99

If that's the case, and assuming the Derby figure is relative to the other two-turn races on the card, if the Derby figure were "off," it's probably only at best a length or two off.

[CSC]

From Beyer's Washington Post Column:

Super Saver's winning tine of 2:04.45 was the slowest since 1989. The Churchill Downs racing strip was slow, of course, but even when the track condition is taken into account, the race still produced a modest Beyer Speed Figure of 104, the second-lowest for the Derby in 20 years.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...16.html?sub=AR

[CSC]

NTAMM, further to your reply last night.

I agree with Beyer 100% on this quote:

This trouble doesn't mean that Ice Box is the most talented horse of this group or that he is likely to win the Preakness. The fast pace made this Derby a perfect set-up for stretch-runners like him.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

NTAMM, further to your reply last night.

I agree with Beyer 100% on this quote:

This trouble doesn't mean that Ice Box is the most talented horse of this group or that he is likely to win the Preakness. The fast pace made this Derby a perfect set-up for stretch-runners like him.

Is that what you said though? You said that he wasn't even closing. He was closing. This wasn't a suck-up second for a horse with a perfect trip who never had a straw in his path. I won't argue that the race didn't set up for him because it certainly did. I also won't make Ice Box out to be something more than he is, which is a pace dependent, one run closer who is going to be a factor when the race flow is in his favor. However, I don't think you can refute the notion that given what he encountered, on this particular day, he was best.

Might that be the case going forward? Not necessarily, because we really were left with more questions than answers. Lookin at Lucky collected more excuses, Sidney's Candy stopped like he got shot, Devil May Care had a perfect trip according to her jockey and came up empty and all of this was done on a very sloppy track that had begun to dry.

NT

[brianwspencer]

Ok, can someone who routinely uses speed figures, doesn't bash them, and has a somewhat cursory to average understanding of how they are made get an explanation of how on Earth that Derby receives a 104?

Because it's not about bashing Beyer, it's not about bashing the number, it's that the number seems way out of line...and I don't understand how it was made on this particular day or the reasoning behind it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Ok, can someone who routinely uses speed figures, doesn't bash them, and has a somewhat cursory to average understanding of how they are made get an explanation of how on Earth that Derby receives a 104?

Because it's not about bashing Beyer, it's not about bashing the number, it's that the number seems way out of line...and I don't understand how it was made on this particular day or the reasoning behind it.

Maybe Steve can get Andy on the show this week to explain his reasoning.