2/20 (FG): Risen Star (G2); Mineshaft, FG H., SBD (G3's)

[ateamstupid]

Tempted to Tapit's last race looks phenomenal and he appears the speed of the speed. I'll be interested to see how he follows up his last.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Tempted to Tapit's last race looks phenomenal and he appears the speed of the speed. I'll be interested to see how he follows up his last.

Bias aided races on the inner, especially at two turns, should be taken with a grain of salt. What were his prior excuses?

Discreetly Mine is much faster early.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Bias aided races on the inner, especially at two turns, should be taken with a grain of salt. What were his prior excuses?

Discreetly Mine is much faster early.

I would imagine they'd try to rate DM. I don't think he wants to stretch out at all, but he has no shot if he uses his early speed.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I would imagine they'd try to rate DM. I don't think he wants to stretch out at all, but he has no shot if he uses his early speed.

So it would be better to take him out of his element and try to rate?

I also don't understand why you continue to state so plainly that he doesn't want to stretch out. Are you basing it on his 2nd place finish in the Champagne where he forced a hot pace? Super Saver didn't even stay the course that day after contesting the pace with DM.

NT

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

So it would be better to take him out of his element and try to rate?

I also don't understand why you continue to state so plainly that he doesn't want to stretch out. Are you basing it on his 2nd place finish in the Champagne where he forced a hot pace? Super Saver didn't even stay the course that day after contesting the pace with DM.

NT

I'm basing it on that, in part. Even if I thought he could go long, he's not that good (and believe me, I wish I didn't think so). Yeah, he beat Super Saver twice, but that means nothing now. SS has developed and DM hasn't. Also, he always seems to have excuses. First in the Futurity and then in the Champagne. I don't recall him forcing the pace in that race - I recall him being a few lengths off it. Are you saying you like this horse for the Derby? The same colt who battled with Eightyfiveinafifty (I think that's his name, sorry if I'm mistaken) and lost that duel in the Dublin maiden race? I'm just not sure what some see in him, that's all.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Bias aided races on the inner, especially at two turns, should be taken with a grain of salt. What were his prior excuses?

Discreetly Mine is much faster early.

Fair enough, I just hardly ever see horses set fractions like that going two turns and show no sign of tiring ever, maybe I'm not watching the IT enough. You're right, his other races suck, but that's why I'm interested to see what he comes with on Saturday.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Fair enough, I just hardly ever see horses set fractions like that going two turns and show no sign of tiring ever, maybe I'm not watching the IT enough. You're right, his other races suck, but that's why I'm interested to see what he comes with on Saturday.

It was a very fast pace, you're absolutely right, I just have trouble buying it all as it relates to the rest of his form. Don't get me wrong, he may be OK, but one inner dirt two turn wire job doesn't convince me of much.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Tempted to Tapit's last race looks phenomenal and he appears the speed of the speed. I'll be interested to see how he follows up his last.

I agree but he did it on a muddy track so obviously I wonder how much he was aided by that.

[Betsy]

Ok, I suppose I need to admit that I was wrong - sort of. There is no way this horse goes 1 1/4 - I can't see him getting 1 1/8 well either. The final time was slow and no one did anything behind him - I would rather see DM kept sprinting, especially since Todd's A horse won the FOY so impressively.

[ateamstupid]

Very tough beat for Quiet Temper.

[The Bid]

That track is ridiculous today on the front end. TT ran a very good race to hold second. He essentially chased a lose leader at a mild pace. He needed that against better horses, he will get a lot out of that race.

Jodi Slew ran a huge race today with how that was playing.

[Linny]

I was pretty happy with the Risen Star but the wrong horse closed for me in the Silverbulletday.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by The Bid

Jodi Slew ran a huge race today with how that was playing.

Jodi Slew beat a terrible field over a very fair racetrack.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Ok, I suppose I need to admit that I was wrong - sort of. There is no way this horse goes 1 1/4 - I can't see him getting 1 1/8 well either. The final time was slow and no one did anything behind him - I would rather see DM kept sprinting, especially since Todd's A horse won the FOY so impressively.

The problem is that he sucks sprinting - and that there is more money to be made routing.

There are a lot of true sprinters - you know, horses who are actually better sprinting than routing .... and they are sacrficed into route races because you simply have a lot more money to be made.

Making a horse who is better off routing - try to be a sprinter - is foolish.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The problem is that he sucks sprinting - and that there is more money to be made routing.

There are a lot of true sprinters - you know, horses who are actually better sprinting than routing .... and they are sacrficed into route races because you simply have a lot more money to be made.

Making a horse who is better off routing - try to be a sprinter - is foolish.

You think this horse really wants to route? In looking at the race again, he ran fine.....he did spurt away from his rivals when he needed to. However, I didn't think he ran like he definitely wanted more ground. I will admit that the FG stretch is not conducive to front runners, though from what I've read, the track was speed favoring today. In any case, with his running style, DM will get fried in the Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

though from what I've read, the track was speed favoring today.

Whatever you read about it being a speed favoring track is retarded. I assume whoever wrote it has been watching synthetic track racing for the last 3 years and expects deep closers to win a bunch of races.

Look at the days 3 dirt route race. Heavily favored Friesan Fire didn't even hit the board after setting a slow pace - a longshot won from mid-pack passing the two favorites.

In the Silverbulletday - an 8/1 winner was dead last on the turn and closed from out of the TV screen to win.

In the Risen Star - you basically had a race with only two horses with any ability (Discreetly Mine and Tepted to Tapit) - instead of pressuring each other - they both rated - and instead of burying that disgraceful field behind them .. they finished 1-2 in workmanlike fashion.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

You think this horse really wants to route?

We had this discussion before....

posts 6 through 9

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33477

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

We had this discussion before....

posts 6 through 9

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33477

I forgot about that, lol

[FGFan]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Ok, I suppose I need to admit that I was wrong - sort of. There is no way this horse goes 1 1/4 - I can't see him getting 1 1/8 well either. The final time was slow and no one did anything behind him - I would rather see DM kept sprinting, especially since Todd's A horse won the FOY so impressively.

Originally Posted by Betsy

You think this horse really wants to route? In looking at the race again, he ran fine.....he did spurt away from his rivals when he needed to. However, I didn't think he ran like he definitely wanted more ground. I will admit that the FG stretch is not conducive to front runners, though from what I've read, the track was speed favoring today. In any case, with his running style, DM will get fried in the Derby.

The times were not slow they were quite average as Bid said it was a mild pace but not slow. I don't like to see them go to fast in this race another one is yet to come in 4 weeks.

And front runners can do quite well on the FG stretch as long as they have not spent themselves just trying to get there and are not in immeninent danger of stopping. A horse that wants to stretch out will relish the FG stretch. And of course the FG stretch has enough ground to favor a deep closer.

I think Tempted toTapit and Discreetly Mine both ran nice races in preps for what is coming up, nice lessons learned from today.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by FGFan

The times were not slow they were quite average as Bid said it was a mild pace but not slow. I don't like to see them go to fast in this race another one is yet to come in 4 weeks.

And front runners can do quite well on the FG stretch as long as they have not spent themselves just trying to get there and are not in immeninent danger of stopping. A horse that wants to stretch out will relish the FG stretch. And of course the FG stretch has enough ground to favor a deep closer.

I think Tempted toTapit and Discreetly Mine both ran nice races in preps for what is coming up, nice lessons learned from today.

True about the time - the Tiffany Lass was slow, but it turns out that the Risen Star was only about a tick slower than the Mineshaft.

What you say about the FG stretch makes sense, but DM will have to ration his speed the same way if he's to get the job done in the LA Derby. I have no problem with DM setting a slow/mild pace because it's not like he has to prove he's speedy. My concern is in the Derby, where he'd be cooked on the front end. That said, I wonder if Pletcher is dead set on DM as a front runner; the colt ran pretty well in the Belmont Futurity and in the Champagne coming from just off the pace.

I was definitely dead wrong about Tempted to Tapit (and gladly so, as I love Tapit). I don't know how good he is, but he's better than an Aqueduct-in-winter 3 year old.