Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basing whether a horse who wintered in Dubai can win on what has happened with prior Godolphin entrants is stupid. Not only were the prior Godolphin entrants not particularly good (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Curule, Express Tour, Essence of Dubai) but they were mis-managed by being brough over here too late and given insufficient time to get acclimated.

There are reasons to dislike Desert Party (quality of competition, ugly 2YO races here) but throwing him or Regal Ransom out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai is foolish.

NT

Actually, it's a great reason to dislike them. Wintering in Dubai has got to be the dumbest way of bringing up a horse for the derby short of running at Santa Anita during the Winter.

That's not to say it's not possible for them to win, but their chances would have been helped tremendously had they stayed in the USA. This seems so self evident that I'm sure even both you and King Glorious would have trouble poking holes in this.

[CSC]

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Question to all...I've been reading that Join The Dance will be entered to ensure a fast pace for Dunkirk. My question is will it matter... 24.40, :49.06 and 1:13.31 in the Bluegrass indicates to me he is not even fast enough to get near the lead. Unless Decarlo is sent out with instructions to be a sacrificial lamb, I don't see this horse impacting the dynamics of the race. Is he faster on dirt?

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

Suddenly this horse becomes an interest in the derby because of what he may or may not do.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

Suddenly this horse becomes an interest in the derby because of what he may or may not do.

Any horse who could have an impact on the pace of a horse race should be of interest.

He's not going to make them go 21 4/5's but he's not going to allow RR to sneak away and go 49 4/5's either.

Add to this equation the two-furlong straight run to the turn, the 150k screaming fans and it makes it interesting.

[Travis Stone]

Forgot my eye rolll...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Forgot my eye rolll...

If he is a sacrificial lamb, I got a few questions for the owner...why enter? If he is legitimately trying to win the race I don't see him impacting the race all that much, and yes the reason I am asking is because Regal Ransom is rising on my list.

[tjfla]

Isn't Join in the Dance a Pletcher horse like Dunkirk??? He gets out fast and Dunkirk is a CLOSER.

Honestly fits well. Join in the Dance gets out fast and Dunkirk picks up the pieces

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm pretty sure he can run faster than that if needed...

yea he's run sub 22 quarters and sub 45 halves

a real speed horse like Z Day blew him away, he might be too cheap to set the pace if someone better actually wants to use horse to get it,

but Join In the Dance has been consistent as far as being a fairly quick starter from the gate as opposed to the type who breaks habitually slow and has to be rushed up with urging.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Actually, it's a great reason to dislike them. Wintering in Dubai has got to be the dumbest way of bringing up a horse for the derby short of running at Santa Anita during the Winter.

That's not to say it's not possible for them to win, but their chances would have been helped tremendously had they stayed in the USA. This seems so self evident that I'm sure even both you and King Glorious would have trouble poking holes in this.

I hope you do well in the Derby tossing them out.

However, like I said, tossing them out SIMPLY because they wintered in Dubai in my opinion is foolish. If you want to use Godolphin's 0-5 record in the Derby as your background, go right ahead, and think hard about the respective chances of those five horses who failed.

Sure, their chances would be better if they spent the winter in the USA but it's the owners' decision, and that's that. If you think it's a bad tactic, fine...I don't think it's a good one either. But know that they've gone about preparing Desert Party and Regal Ransom in a way that they did not try in 1999-2002 when their other five horses started.

NT