Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I'm not sure QR needs a target.

If I was JRV I wouldn't hesitate to place him on the lead if he breaks clean and no one else is being sent.

But ... JRV has never seen a wide stalking/pressing trip he didn't like. I'm sure he'd rather have him a settled 2nd - outside of the pace setter - and about a half length or a length off the lead

I'm not sure he needs a target either and I would expect JV to take the initiative as well if no one goes.

It looks as if in the effort to get Quality Road to relax, because everyone determined that he was an unrateable lunatic after losing to Theregoesjojo , he was trained to stalk in that cozy 2nd spot. The pace might not have been quick in the Fla Derby but he looked awfully comfortable in that "watchdog" spot.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I wonder how much not having lasix had to do with Quality Road's allowance loss?

He's run two monster races since adding lasix - and the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wonder how much not having lasix had to do with Quality Road's allowance loss?

He's run two monster races since adding lasix - and the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

What did you make of the fractions in the Florida Derby given the condition of the track?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

What did you make of the fractions in the Florida Derby given the condition of the track?

that's my question about that race. how good was QR, and how much did he benefit from the track? but for his first around two turns, i thought he looked very good.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

that's my question about that race. how good was QR, and how much did he benefit from the track? but for his first around two turns, i thought he looked very good.

That's the debate, souped up tracks/flattering numbers/speed biases. We know where Pletcher stands with his frank comments after the race.

[Travis Stone]

Souped-up track does not necessarily equate to speed bias, and Gulfstream Park on Fla. Derby day was a chalk-fest, which makes the debate even more uncertain.

To me the bottom line with this Dunkirk vs. Quality Road stuff is whether or not as a handicapper you think Quality Road can do what he did in the FOY/Fla Derby at CD going 10 furlongs with some additional pace pressers to put away late in the race. Provided QR runs his race, he will be on the lead and/or close. Then you have to ask whether or not Dunkirk, or anyone else, can outrun him late to the wire.

My thoughts on that argument:

* Right now, the pace does not look too brutal. QR probably is on the lead or coasting just off it. He will likely sit his trip. I do, however, question if he might get a little bit weak late in the race. Though he finished-up in the Florida Derby, I don't think he finished-up super strong as to where no one could catch him late going another furlong.

* Dunkirk ran a big race, going wide at GP is never easy, closing at GP is never easy. But he had a fair chance to run by QR and didn't. I think, at 8-1, he's a big-time bet against when you add up all the variables against him. At this point, I Want Revenge is a more plausible horse to run down Quality Road late than Dunkirk and scary enough, they might not be that far off in price.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Souped-up track does not necessarily equate to speed bias, and Gulfstream Park on Fla. Derby day was a chalk-fest, which makes the debate even more uncertain.

To me the bottom line with this Dunkirk vs. Quality Road stuff is whether or not as a handicapper you think Quality Road can do what he did in the FOY/Fla Derby at CD going 10 furlongs with some additional pace pressers to put away late in the race. Provided QR runs his race, he will be on the lead and/or close. Then you have to ask whether or not Dunkirk, or anyone else, can outrun him late to the wire.

My thoughts on that argument:

* Right now, the pace does not look too brutal. QR probably is on the lead or coasting just off it. He will likely sit his trip. I do, however, question if he might get a little bit weak late in the race. Though he finished-up in the Florida Derby, I don't think he finished-up super strong as to where no one could catch him late going another furlong.

* Dunkirk ran a big race, going wide at GP is never easy, closing at GP is never easy. But he had a fair chance to run by QR and didn't. I think, at 8-1, he's a big-time bet against when you add up all the variables against him. At this point, I Want Revenge is a more plausible horse to run down Quality Road late than Dunkirk and scary enough, they might not be that far off in price.

i thought i read his final fractions were very good? or i might be confusing his last with i want revenge. like drugs, i think these two are the top two.

and i agree with your last paragraph.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

That's the debate, souped up tracks/flattering numbers/speed biases. We know where Pletcher stands with his frank comments after the race.

i'm not saying it was souped up, but i have seen references to a front runner bias. i don't know if that's the case or not, it always seems disgruntled bettors like to place blame on things like that.
my question is, was there really a bias? and if so, (and i think QR is the real deal btw) what does that mean about his race, and the record?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm not saying it was souped up, but i have seen references to a front runner bias. i don't know if that's the case or not, it always seems disgruntled bettors like to place blame on things like that.
my question is, was there really a bias? and if so, (and i think QR is the real deal btw) what does that mean about his race, and the record?

I agree, I'm in the corner he is more than likely the real deal. My question was really aimed at trying to determine what the internal fractions of the race would have been had the track been set up to run as it was on a normal day.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

What did you make of the fractions in the Florida Derby given the condition of the track?

They were legit.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

They were legit.

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

I bet I Want Revenge in that race - he had a dream trip and ran like a complete dog biscuit.

The pace was awfully slow in that race - and if it would have been run on dirt POTN would have never had a prayer.

I didn't think much of the race other than POTN was clearly the best horse in the race on that track .. and that IWR stinks on that track.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I bet I Want Revenge in that race - he had a dream trip and ran like a complete dog biscuit.

The pace was awfully slow in that race - and if it would have been run on dirt POTN would have never had a prayer.

I didn't think much of the race other than POTN was clearly the best horse in the race on that track .. and that IWR stinks on that track.

I don't know if anyone else agrees but all 3 of these horses pailed in comparison to The Pamplemousse, the more I think about it he would have been my horse if he were running in the Derby had he not gotten hurt, to me he was the most impressive 3 yr old I saw to this point, the only question mark he had was could be handle dirt, my opinion would have been a resounding yes.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

That's a poor interpretation of the Robert Lewis.

[DogsUp]

The debate between the two is stupid and irrational. You are coming up with countless hypotheticals without knowing all the information. However, it makes for good "chat board conversation,"

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's a poor interpretation of the Robert Lewis.

I was more or less addressing a thread where Drugs pointed out Well Armed couldn't hold a lead in a race when he ran on SA Pro ride as to what some feel is a closer friendly surface, but he did move up quite substantially I might add when he ran on Dubai dirt, that is why I posed the question as to what his thoughts were of Papa Clem and shouldn't this philosophy apply to this horse.

My point is even if this horse turns out to be a slug, if Pro ride is closer biased artificial turf. Shouldn't Papa Clem's race be upgraded?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wonder how much not having lasix had to do with Quality Road's allowance loss?

He's run two monster races since adding lasix - and the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

didn't he come out of that loss to jojo with a cough? seems several horses in jerkens' barn had a virus during that time.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

the way he was so strongly bet in a very tough Fountain of Youth field off that allowance loss suggests to me that a plausable excuse for the alw races was possibly floating around.

A really sharp handicapper should have noted that being the best physically and having a top-class race in his debut, and working as well as he did leading up to the FOY, that he should have been given an good chance with TOFP and JoJo. We shouldn't have needed an insider's plausable excuse.

We messed up.

We all like to think that we are tremendous judges of talent, but the fact is we should have been raving about how Quality Road towers over these others in physical talent, and 5-1 would seem like a fair range of odds.

Compare them now, JoJo and TOFP didn't shrink ! QR didn't grow a whole bunch more! We missed an obvious thing because we were caught up in other stuff like move-ups ,and we we wrote off QR prematurely, even though he was working like a monster up to the FOY

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Compare them now,

A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.

Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.

He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A lot of things seem obvious after the fact.

Theregoesjojo had just beaten Quality Road by 2 3/4 lengths .. and the hot pace of the race projected much better for him than QR ... yet the two horses were almost the same price.

He was no bargain at 5/1 on paper. He should have been a bigger price in fact.

The money in the pools is not an equal representation of public opinion. In reality a minority controls the pools with their larger wagers.
"He should have been a bigger price" - yea according to public opinion he should have been 8-1 , after the good players bet he was 5-1.

I bet 200 each on Phil and JOJO, but I can see after the fact that I screwed up. Evaluating your own past performance isn't about whether you win or lose(in the short term), and it isn't about what Joe-Public "should have" thought at the time of the race.