Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

If Papa Clem gets an uncontested lead, I can see him being very dangerous at probable long odds surmising Churchill will be souped up for the Derby . His Robert Lewis was very, very good on a fair race track. Toss out the slop loss at the FG and you have perhaps an underrated horse. Yeah I know he didn't beat much in the ARK Derby but in a paceless race, he might War Emblem them. I'm just not sure 1 1/4 is his best distance.

Why are you automatically equating a souped-up track with a speed-favoring one?

The track in 2001 was arguably as souped-up as it has been in recent memory yet the winner of the Derby came from well, well off the pace.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Papa Clem isn't naturally fast enough to make the lead without having to be too hard used.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Papa Clem isn't naturally fast enough to make the lead without having to be too hard used.

well if QR isn't 100% or doesn't go , why can't he get out on a loose lead without having to be exerted?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

because there are still a few others likely to go who are naturally faster than him.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

because there are still a few others likely to go who are naturally faster than him.

fresian fire?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

fresian fire?

No

[gales0678]

ok then who will make him work / exert to get to the lead?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Why are you automatically equating a souped-up track with a speed-favoring one?

The track in 2001 was arguably as souped-up as it has been in recent memory yet the winner of the Derby came from well, well off the pace.

NT

Memory had them running the 1/2 in 44 and change, when M. Wind, Keats(I think) and Balto Star cannot get within a sniff of the lead, that pace was doomed to collaspe regardless of the condition of the track.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Memory had them running the 1/2 in 44 and change, when M. Wind, Keats(I think) and Balto Star cannot get within a sniff of the lead, that pace was doomed to collaspe regardless of the condition of the track.

Right but the thing is everyone labels the CD strip on Derby day as "souped-up" yet the amount of wire-to-wire winners of the Derby is shockingly small. Thus, what I'm telling you is that to make the blanket generalization that a souped-up track is speed-favoring is incorrect.

NT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Right but the thing is everyone labels the CD strip on Derby day as "souped-up" yet the amount of wire-to-wire winners of the Derby is shockingly small. Thus, what I'm telling you is that to make the blanket generalization that a souped-up track is speed-favoring is incorrect.

NT

In the majority of Derby's lately the horse on the lead out of the gate couldn't win a top class race at 10 furlongs if they replaced the dirt on the rail with a conveyer belt. A souped up track isn't going to magically make Bob Black Jack, Keyed Entry or Spanish Chestnut able to get 10 furlongs.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

In the majority of Derby's lately the horse on the lead out of the gate couldn't win a top class race at 10 furlongs if they replaced the dirt on the rail with a conveyer belt. A souped up track isn't going to magically make Bob Black Jack, Keyed Entry or Spanish Chestnut able to get 10 furlongs.

Right but did the pace hold up at all in any of the Derbies that you mention? Wouldn't a souped up track that is assumed to be speed-favoring at least enable some of those horses to hang around.

My point is very simple. It happened after the Fla Derby and it's happening again. Labels like biased, speed-favoring, souped-up are thrown around very casually, especially when one wants to fit their own agenda. They are all isolated instances but at times can be mixed. A souped-up track, a track that has been situated so that times are fast, is not necessarily a speed-favoring track. To say that the CD strip is often souped-up on Derby day would be accurate. Yes, the track is often very, very fast on Derby day. But to assume that because it's souped up that its going to favor speed is a connection I wouldn't make.

Thus, anyone spending time right now trying to figure out who COULD go wire-to-wire because they're hoping that the track is souped-up AND will favor speed ought to start handicapping the Queen's Plate because that set of conditions cannot be expected at this point in time.

NT

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Thus, anyone spending time right now trying to figure out who COULD go wire-to-wire because they're hoping that the track is souped-up AND will favor speed ought to start handicapping the Queen's Plate because that set of conditions cannot be expected at this point in time.

NT

It may be early but why not discuss something different, instead of focusing on the syth/dirt debate? Thats' been kicked around to death around here. With Old Fashioned out there does seem to be a lack of pace this year. Maybe there will be a late addition, but this race looks completely opposite to the probable pace set up when we were capping in 01 when there were legitimately 3-4 speed horses.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Right but the thing is everyone labels the CD strip on Derby day as "souped-up" yet the amount of wire-to-wire winners of the Derby is shockingly small. Thus, what I'm telling you is that to make the blanket generalization that a souped-up track is speed-favoring is incorrect.

NT

Fair enough, we will have to disagree on the souped track part. I believe other factors such as having 20 horses in a field make it very difficult for a horse to steal a race on an uncontested lead, I will agree on the part that it is difficult to wire a derby field. Historically it doesn't happen often, Go for Gin, War Emblem just a handful of horses in recent memory.

[slotdirt]

It is amazing to watch that 2001 Derby and realize how many horses stopped badly before even reaching the far turn. I know horses stop in every Derby, but that was half the field who were done running after 6f.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

It is amazing to watch that 2001 Derby and realize how many horses stopped badly before even reaching the far turn. I know horses stop in every Derby, but that was half the field who were done running after 6f.

Congaree ran an awesome race that day - and Point Given ran HUGE for a mile that day when you consider how wide he was on both turns and how relatively close to the pace he was considering his style and the easier paced races he was coming out of ... he really did fall apart in the final quarter though .. understandably so.

Invisibile Ink was a stone cold grinder who I thought had several races better than looked on his form - and as a few here will recall - I relentlessly touted him in a fashion of almost Jon White like annoyance going into that years Derby. Similar to what happened with Giacomo - I scored some - but my opinion was certainly never validated by what happened in subsequent races .. though in both cases the sexiest thing about the horse coming into the race was how well they projected trip and style wise from what absolutely had to be insanely hot paces.