Who will be the "wise guy" horse 5/3???

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I can't see him going off less than 40-1. Smooth Air seems like the wise guy horse to me. Probably should be 30-1 or more but will wind up going off at 12-1 to 15-1.

after Giacomo very few horses who have a graded win on their resume go off at 40/1.......I can see 15-1 to 20/1

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

after Giacomo very few horses who have a graded win on their resume go off at 40/1.......I can see 15-1 to 20/1

By my count there are exactly zero horses in the field without a graded stakes win. You think everyone will go off at less than 40/1? That has to be close to impossible.

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

By my count there are exactly zero horses in the field without a graded stakes win. You think everyone will go off at less than 40/1? That has to be close to impossible.

I'd love to get 40-1on DofC, but I'm thinking more around 25-1.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

By my count there are exactly zero horses in the field without a graded stakes win. You think everyone will go off at less than 40/1? That has to be close to impossible.

It is virtually impossible in a 20 horse field with 2 horses you know will be below 6/1.
I have a gut feeling there will be 1-2 forgotten horses with qualified figures, and one of them will win it and pay $100.

There is no way Denis will go off at 40/1 or higher.

The listeners of ATR will bet him down to 20/1 or less. That tearjerker story about Carroll taking his kid to the derby museum after the Illinois debacle will get the emotional gamblers to bet heavy so they can have that delusional hope they'll get to see the kid cry in the winners circle.

It's enough to make you wanna throw up.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I think Smooth Air might take some money. Look at Tomcito. He was 3-1 in the Lexington off his plodding third to Big Brown.

Tomcito was 3/1 because he was running against billygoats on a surface that confuses the majority of bettors. Somebody had to be the favorite in that mule run. Did Tomcito finish the race in daylight or did they need to throw the lights on for him?

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by Gander

Tomcito was 3/1 because he was running against billygoats on a surface that confuses the majority of bettors. Somebody had to be the favorite in that mule run. Did Tomcito finish the race in daylight or did they need to throw the lights on for him?

It may not have been the best field, but there were surely better options to make the favorite than Tomcito.

[Dunbar]

The only horse for which TheGreek felt compelled to lower its odds significantly in the last week is Adriano. One week ago it was 35.5 to 1. Now Adriano is 20.5 to 1 at TheGreek. Every other horse is very close to the odds it was a week ago.

Odds on Big Brown have risen slightly from 3.05-1 to 3.25-1. Odds on Pyro and Col. John have dropped slightly.

--Dunbar