Who will be the "wise guy" horse 5/3???
 

The more i keep hearing about him and with the jockey talking about Barbaro i get the feeling its gonna be Adriano. It just seems here lately that this horse is getting a lot of "buzz" and im thinking this is gonna lower his odds pretty good for KD.I have no real idea who im actually gonna bet in the big race but for some odd reason im actualy thinking about adriano, am i getting sucked into the hype machine??

Here's a quote by Prado's agent and I do not detect much confidence by statement.

Bob Frieze, Prado's agent, said it was "a tough decision."

"We went back and forth, back and forth," Frieze said from Keeneland, where Prado is currently riding. "We won on Adriano in the Lane's End before we rode the other two. We felt obligated toward Graham. We had told Graham to let Edgar work the horse first, then we'd make a decision."

http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/24161402/

Why would he not choose Adriano?

Monba ran once over the track - got a great stalking trip - and was life and death to beat a nothing field.

Tale of Ekati has run three straight moderate figures - and he doesn't project to improve at all stretching out. On top of that, I guess Tagg complained about his Wood ride.

Instead of riding a known commodity who had no realistic shot of winning - wouldn't you prefer an unknown quantity who's ceiling might or might not be a whole lot higher?

A. P. Indy gets better dirt horses than turf horses - Mr. Prospector gets better dirt horses than turf horses - the 2nd dam is a half to Bet Twice who beat out Alysheba in the old Chrysler Triple Crown Series point standings. Even though he's always been handled like a turf horse - and even though he's been effective on turf and synthetic - no one can rationally say that one roughly run race where he was marooned out in the 12 hole at GP is enough to prove he stinks on dirt.

Adriano might have the worst chance percentage wise at a top 8 finish of the three - but he has the best chance percentage wise of winning the race of those three horses.

So do you think he has any shot, Drugs?

I think Monba and Tale of the Ekati have a much better shot at splitting the field than Adriano.

Adriano is one of the toughest reads, probably even the single toughest read for me in the race - if he runs 16th I wouldn't be shocked..and if he's in the exacta I wouldn't be totally shocked.

Can he win? I only say it's not impossible because I'm not entirely convinced I know where his ceiling is..and this is unquestionably a low rated Derby field.

Ya I hear you. . . Right now I have him as an "X" but he's probably the one I fear the most out of the ones I plan on tossing.

Court Vision

Gayego.

Denis of Cork.

The trainer galloped...

agree!!

-bt-

Obviously, Byk and White (and others in their cabal) are conspiring to make Smooth Air the wise guy horse.

I think its Gayego. His Arkansas race proved to a lot of people he isnt just a sprinter. Add in Mike Smith, a guy who rode the last big Derby surprise, if you will (Giacomo). His trainer is a fun guy to root for, a la Farda Amiga, not one of those arrogant asses we have become so accustomed to seeing on "the Big Stage."

Its really hard to find many knocks on him. The only one was he was only a polytrack (cushion) horse, but thats been debunked with his Ark win.

He can definetely win this race but probably wont be the overlay his backers wanted. Thinking he will go off between 10/1 and 15/1.

Z Fortune. Everyone will watch that and see he ran a nice figure, looks to be improving, and is better suited for the 10f than Gayego with his style and the fact he had a wide trip at Arkansas.

Court Vision and DOC's works appear to have directed some attention their way.

Dennis of Cork will be a bit off the trip in the Illinois Derby and if this workout gets pub like it did here.

I can't see him going off less than 40-1. Smooth Air seems like the wise guy horse to me. Probably should be 30-1 or more but will wind up going off at 12-1 to 15-1.

Sheet players love him, he'll be a lot less than 40-1. Agree on Smooth Air's odds, however I think he's legit and one of the few truly talented horses in this field and a must include. Pedigree scares me away a bit but at least he's got a little stamina on the bottom.

I think Smooth Air is the wiseguy horse, he or Adriano.

I'm very torn on Adriano as well. There is a ton to like. He has breeding which should/could easily excel on dirt, so labeling him a synthetic maven just yet seems premature.

Let's face it - it's anyones race this year. Well, almost anyone.

after Giacomo very few horses who have a graded win on their resume go off at 40/1.......I can see 15-1 to 20/1

I cant see Smooth Air taking the kind of money needed to get him to 12/1.
Somebody had to run 2nd to Big Brown that day. Sure he can win, but I dont think a plodding 2nd in behind Big Brown is the kind of race that will make people run to the ATM machine over.

I see horses like Gayego and Z Fortune attracting more attention. Maybe even the slow Tale of Ekati. Those are 3 horses who I see more likely to land in the 12/1 - 15/1 range.

By my count there are exactly zero horses in the field without a graded stakes win. You think everyone will go off at less than 40/1? That has to be close to impossible.