My Belmont Analysis

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

This is not my prediction, but instead it is how I will bet the race. I may play Rags to win if she climbs to 5-1. Otherwise, I will use her on top (no pun intended) of CP West and Tiago, and hope for the best. If my life depended on me picking the winner, obviously I would take Curlin.

Oh.....well in that case I have to go from defending you, to questioning your sanity.
You think Curlin is the most likely winner.....and you are going to bet exactas and trifectas.......and not use him at all? That makes no sense to me whatsoever. I think Curlin might be a bit vulnerable, but I would be SHOCKED if he doesn't hit the board here.
If you like the three you mentioned, why not take a shot at using them on top of the horse you consider the most likely winner?

[slotdirt]

Wanderin Boy won the Alysheba, which I believe is ungraded. Semantics, of course.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Wanderin Boy won the Alysheba, which I believe is ungraded. Semantics, of course.

'Twas graded for the first time this year.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Oh.....well in that case I have to go from defending you, to questioning your sanity.
You think Curlin is the most likely winner.....and you are going to bet exactas and trifectas.......and not use him at all? That makes no sense to me whatsoever. I think Curlin might be a bit vulnerable, but I would be SHOCKED if he doesn't hit the board here.
If you like the three you mentioned, why not take a shot at using them on top of the horse you consider the most likely winner?

For one, I don't play trifectas. I am a win bettor, and I also play Pick 3s and Pick 4s. Occasionally, I play exactas. My goal in all races, especailly races where the pools are inflated, is to find value and cash a big ticket. I like to bet a little to try and win a lot. If Curlin wins, I don't see any of the exotics paying much. That, combined with my opinion that he MIGHT regress, dictates that I leave him off my tickets. However, I like your idea of playing my two "prices", Tiago and CP West, over Curlin. I may end up doing that.

The one strong opinion that I have is that Rags To Riches has a legit chance to win. So I'm trying to come up with a way to make a respectable score off of that opinion. Playing her over Curlin is not worth it, in my opinion.

I WILL say that Curlin will probably be on my Pick 4 ticket. So I'm not totally insane.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by justindew

For one, I don't play trifectas. I am a win bettor, and I also play Pick 3s and Pick 4s. Occasionally, I play exactas. My goal in all races, especailly races where the pools are inflated, is to find value and cash a big ticket. I like to bet a little to try and win a lot. If Curlin wins, I don't see any of the exotics paying much. That, combined with my opinion that he MIGHT regress, dictates that I leave him off my tickets. However, I like your idea of playing my two "prices", Tiago and CP West, over Curlin. I may end up doing that.

The one strong opinion that I have is that Rags To Riches has a legit chance to win. So I'm trying to come up with a way to make a respectable score off of that opinion. Playing her over Curlin is not worth it, in my opinion.

I WILL say that Curlin will probably be on my Pick 4 ticket. So I'm not totally insane.

I agree with you completely on that one. I really like her chances.

[tector]

I think R2R is going to be the second betting choice (or possibly very close to it), and I just don't see the value there. Any other day, there is not much chance I'm going to chase the exacta in a 7 horse field that requires me to punch the heavy favorite over the second betting choice. I am not going to change that just because the race is called "The Belmont".

Given the freakish field size, and the price on the favorites, the Derby offers all kinds of betting opportunities not present in most races. The same is often not true in the Preakness, and it is almost never true in the Belmont. From a betting perspective, the Belmont is JAR (just another race).

And perhaps I'm dreaming, but I just have the sense that Pletcher's record with calling "audibles" leaves something to be desired--and that is how I perceive this move.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I WILL say that Curlin will probably be on my Pick 4 ticket. So I'm not totally insane.

I was worried you were going to leave him off completely.

I think what may be being misunderstood is that just because a horse is the " most likely winner " ( every race has one ) doesn't mean you ( or one ) is betting that horse. The likeliest winner might be 30% to win ( not to say that is easily definable ) but is therefore worth betting against at 8:5 or less. However, it is important as a handicapper, and especially as one who handicaps publicly, to both understand and define the most likely winner. Many races effectively go through one horse. However, how the player deals with that horse will decide how well he ( or she ) does betting said race.

When publicly discussing a race it is irresponsible to not discuss how you are dealing with the " most likely winner. "

[justindew]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

When publicly discussing a race it is irresponsible to not discuss how you are dealing with the " most likely winner. "

I feel like it's more confusing than irresponsible. Maybe that actaully makes it irresponsible. I have found that I need to go a step or two beyond a normal explanation when not using a big favorite. Some people don't seem to understand the idea of seeking value elsewhere, especially in big races. Of course, most serious racing fans understand completely.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by justindew

I feel like it's more confusing than irresponsible. Maybe that actaully makes it irresponsible. I have found that I need to go a step or two beyond a normal explanation when not using a big favorite. Some people don't seem to understand the idea of seeking value elsewhere, especially in big races. Of course, most serious racing fans understand completely.

You're right about the last part....serious racing fans understand seeking value elsewhere implicitely.

I was speaking more in general about not discussing the main contender as being irresponsible. When I do the DRF/Siro's shows in Saratoga I think the most important thing to do is lay out the race logically and try to explain how I intend to attack it ( if at all ). I am eternally frustrated when I see other handicapping shows and people do not do this. It's really all about leading people in the right direction. Nobody will ever find their way if they are left out in the wilderness. Wrong or right, you have to have the right starting point to have a real chance to get where you want to go ( winning ).

[slotdirt]

The Alysheba was graded this year?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

The Alysheba was graded this year?

Yes, for the first time.