Negative Key Race

[ceejay]

Is the Arkie Derby turning out to be a negative key race this year? http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08OPar...erby_chart.pdf

[the_fat_man]

I mean, who might I have wanted out of this race for a representative G1?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ceejay

Is the Arkie Derby turning out to be a negative key race this year? http://www.drf.com/row/charts/08OPar...erby_chart.pdf

The figure was about five lengths too high on every set of figures. Just look at the figures for every horse going in, what they got in that race, and then their subsequent performance. It is pretty clear where the outlier is. Most people on here thought that figure was a mistake right after they announced it.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The figure was about five lengths too high on every set of figures. Just look at the figures for every horse going in, what they got in that race, and then their subsequent performance. It is pretty clear where the outlier is. Most people on here thought that figure was a mistake right after they announced it.

Agreed. Clearly this cast was lacking a star.

Sometimes just watching the race can trump a speed figure in a case like this.
It doesn't make logical sense that this performance would be scored higher than any of BB's races or races like the Peter Pan. It was more on par with a race like the Tesio at Pimlico.

They actually made a nice race out of it. From a fan's standpoint, I enjoyed the battle. The top 2 can probably run some more good races @ G3 or ungraded stakes level at the proper distance.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

The figure was about five lengths too high on every set of figures. Just look at the figures for every horse going in, what they got in that race, and then their subsequent performance. It is pretty clear where the outlier is. Most people on here thought that figure was a mistake right after they announced it.

Yeah, it was pretty obvious. Any time the first four finishers in a race all run career tops, it's probably a good idea to question the figure.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, it was pretty obvious. Any time the first four finishers in a race all run career tops, I tend to question the figure.

To top it off I got fooled by figures for the also rans that showed up in the Lone Star Derby where they totally tanked. For the Preakness and from now on I'm dropping five lengths off that figure for any horse from that race before I start my handicapping.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

To top it off I got fooled by figures for the also rans that showed up in the Lone Star Derby where they totally tanked. For the Preakness and from now on I'm dropping five lengths off that figure for any horse from that race before I start my handicapping.

Me too. I'm also dropping seven points or so off of the Lexington figure.