Carryovers add juice to Wood, SA Derby cards
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Highly anticipated Gulfstream meet-ender finished a bit maddeningly as one of the only poor weather days of the entire season took half the Rainbow 6 sequence off the turf while steady rain wrought sealed slop for the skein. The $4k+ reward for successful tickets was more than adequate for the tricky reads which required carefully constructed small budget tickets or liberal bankroll application. More than 1,400 winnings plays were cashed, a good re-allocation of the reserves. While the dust hasn’t settled on the widely discussed concept, the ‘unique ticket’ jackpot bet has certainly taken root and seems to have more positives attached to it than negatives. Hope everyone enjoyed the Gulfstream season.
Aqueduct and Santa Anita take center stage Saturday with the Wood Memorial and SA Derby the eagerly awaited features and both venues offering P6 carryovers (NY-$73k; CA-$42k) as bonus attractions.
AQUEDUCT
PRE-SCRATCHES
7th: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Pleased to have Dee Tee’s Toy Cannon healthy and back in NY after a very solid 4yo debut/prep at Gulfstream. He arrived late behind Romans’ Master Wesley there and that one came back in his return to win a good S/ALW on the FL Derby undercard. The big gelding reunites with Alvarado and looks to have pace to attack here. James Jingle gets back to the lawn and will be a good price. Classy Gimme Credit is a seasoned, accomplished pro that still gets it done. Impatient Investor stretches out and moves to the grass. He has plenty of relatives that have been successful on the sod..
Most Likely: #10 Toy Cannon 7-2
Best Value: #4 James Jingle 12-1
Next Best: #9 Gimme Credit 3-1
Exotics Use: #3 Impatient Investor 8-1
8th: 118th Gazelle (G2), 3yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Walkwithapurpose 3-1
Best Value: #4 Let Me Entertain U 10-1
Next Best: #2 Close Hatches 8-5
Exotics Use: #6 Princess of Sylmar 9-5
9th: 53rd Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
Maniacally confounding group. Only 30-1 Silver Morgan looks impossible..
Most Likely: #4 Salutos Amigos 5-1
Next Best: #6 Honorable Dillon 4-1
Best Value: #3 Retrieve 20-1
Exotics Use: #8 Clearly Now 5-2
10th: 113th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Sahara Sky 2-1
Best Value: #1 Saturday’s Charm 8-1
Next Best: #7 Discreet Dancer 8-5
Exotics Use: #5 Brigand 10-1
11th: 89th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD)
Since you’re going to have to use the top three anyway in your multis, why not reach for a jump candidate? Elnaawi is a striking, strapping colt that out-performed expectations in the Gotham while spotting experience and has progressed since. $500k Shadwell colt by Street Sense is half to To Honor and Serve who won just happened to win the Nashua, Remsen and Cigar Mile on this course. Fired best of 68 bullet (:59.2) preparing, is within striking range of the favorites and could ignite the day..
Best Value: #4 Elnaawi 12-1
Next Best: #2 Normandy Invasion 5-1
Exotics Use: #8 Verrazano 4-5
Super Add: #5 Vyjack 4-1
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 1-2-4-6
9: 4-6
10: 1-4-5-7
11: 2-4-8
4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
12th: CLM, 4+, 1m
Most Likely: #6 Pleasant Prince 5-2
Next Best: #5 Diamond District 4-1
Best Value: #11 Willy Pay 12-1
Exotics Use: #1 Minescape 3-1
<$200 P6 Play:
7: 3-4-9-10
8: 1-2-4-6
9: 4-6
10: 4
11: 2-4-8
12: 6
4x4x2x1x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$75 P4 Play:
9: 3-4-6-8
10: 1-4-5-7
11: 2-4-8
12: 5-6-11
4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
SANTA ANITA PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
5th: 74th Santa Anita Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD)
Beholder, while highly likely, faces some improving fillies here and the challenges could come in waves..
Most Likely: #6 Beholder 3-5
Next Best: #4 Fiftyshadesofhay 9-2
Exotics Use: #3 Could Be Trouble 8-1
6th: 8th Thunder Road, 4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Wilkinson 4-1
Best Value: #4 Tigah 6-1
Next Best: #7 Fed Biz 7-2
Exotics Use: #5 Willyconker 9-2
7th: 31st Potrero Grande (G2), 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Superbly matched group of seasoned sprinters young and old including Malibu winner Jimmy Creed making his 4yo bow. Kurt Hoover noted on ATR that Italian Rules would be dangerous if Spawr chose to run, but he has SCR’d. Haverhill too. Their departures make Comma to the Top lone speed unless Unbridled’s Note or hot-working Apriority attack early..
Most Likely: #2 Comma to the Top 9-5
Best Value: #7 Apriority 8-1
Next Best: #8 Jimmy Creed 2-1
Exotics Use: #6 Unbridled’s Note 3-1
8th: 33rd Providencia (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Scarlet Strike was never overmatched on dirt against top competition but this is her more likely aptitiude..
Most Likely: #6 Scarlet Strike 7-2
Next Best: #8 Flashy Ways 6-1
Best Value: #1 Kyriaki 12-1
Exotics Use: #7 Magnificent Shirl 4-1
9th: 76th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD)
Hollendorfer’s bad Derby luck raised it’s head again with Hear the Ghost suffering a setback that pauses his season, but this event still has plenty of intrigue. Baffert/West pair of Flashback and Power Broker shoulder to shoulder from the interior stalls leaving the gate and assume former finds forward position while allowing Summer Exclusive and overeager Goldencents. Super Ninety Nine, the third Baffert player, will surely try to sit into the backstretch and he and Flashback should have first run on the lead duo. These 4 naturally fast types make it feel like the potential is there for a spirited pace and Tiz a Minister should once again have an opportunity to make his late charge work..
Most Likely: #1 Flashback 6-5
Next Best: #6 Super Ninety Nine 9-2
Best Value: #3 Power Broker 4-1
Exotics Use: #4 Tiz a Minister 5-1
10th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (DD)
Most Likely: #4 Points Offthebench 7-2
Next Best: #12 Gonna Fly Now 7-2
Exotics Use: #9 Oliver’s Tale 5-2
Super Add: #10 Wall Dance 6-1
11th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #4 East Sky 5-2
Best Value: #3 Square Dancer 5-1
Next Best: #2 Bio Pro 4-1
Exotics Use: #9 Russel’s Run 3-1
Super/Hi-5: #1 Affrettando 8-1
<$150 P6 Play:
6: 2-4-7
7: 2-7
8: 6
9: 1-3-6
10: 4-12
11: 3-4
3x2x1x3x2x2 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 6
9: 1-3-4-5-6
10: 4-9-12
11: 2-3-4
1x5x3x3 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)
Good luck!
Steve