BELMONT: Best price boosts P4; Strong Sunday slate
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
Enjoyed a fun and fast-paced Saturday afternoon with eclectic action around the ovals punctuated by highly bettable sequences and stakes at BEL, LaD, AP, PID and more. Late P4 at Belmont went my way and paid nicely thanks to Contessa’s late-running $29 Fast Grievance, the best possible result in the anchor leg for a $367 bingo. Earlier in the quad, KMc’s Freshman Dorm paid a bulky $15.80 in the scrambled 7th, and keyed an $82.50 triple that got the Fall Meet punting off to a great start.
Got knocked out of the Super Derby/All Stakes P4 immediately when old favorite Golden Yank rallied neatly inside of invading Lonesome Street and Mystic, but caught some OK exotics through the final 3 races to exit Bozier City whole. Baffert’s Prayer for Relief (3-2, fave) and Rafy Bejarano exited LaDowns with $300k thanks to clever front-end thievery that allowed the now 3X Derby winner outrageously soft fractions (:24.2, :50.1, 1:15.2). When Graham Motion joined Seth Merrow and I Saturday morning on Capital OTB, he indicated that Meistersinger (3-1, 2nd choice) could be expected to be part of the pace picture, so it’s hard to imagine he was happy with Lezcano’s torpid handling of the 3-1 second choice who finished 8th.
Was a good day overall andf I hope everyone did well! Sunday card at Belmont is particularly good from the 5th race on, and includes a MSW 9th that unveils Animal Kingdom half brother THURSBY (Mr. Greeley)…
BELMONT PARK
10th RACE TAKEN OFF THE ‘GOOD’ TURF
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-MOVED TO INNER TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)
As usual, state-bred OC/ALW on grass provides fodder for gleeful wagering. Ignore Bishop of Nola’s off-turf flop and string of eligible performances remain. Rocky F is obvious threat back to spring runs..
Most Likely: #7 Bishop of Nola 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Mr. Enrico 20-1 WON ($56.50)
Next Best: #5 Rocky F 9-5 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Sky Blue Pink 7-2 2nd
$1 Exacta (8-2) Paid $120.25
$1 Trifecta (8-2-7) Paid $359.50
$1 Superfecta (8-2-7-5) Paid $485.00
6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)
Aren’t you forced to ask yourself why Buffum, off that stunning Spa performance, is running back in this kind of event?
Most Likely: #6 Buffum 1-1 2nd (DQ’d from WIN)
Next Best: #4 Bold Warrior 5-2 WON-DQ ($9.20)
Best Value: #3 Golden Gulch 8-1 3rd
7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Tough to argue with likelihood of Pletcher 2nd timer Patrice Merion (English Channel), but there are some interesting options for inclusion. Matz has yet another 2yo prospect in LDK bay Somali Lemonade who hales from unraced Nureyev mare Chic Corine who has produced several turf winners including stake winners in the U.S. and Europe. Chic Corine is out of Ashland winner Chic Shirine, who as a dam produced Flying Passage (dam of Hungry Island and Soparing Empire); Mayan Maidan (dam of Maya, the dam of Al Khali); and G2 True North winner Waldboro (Lyphard). Single from Alan Goldberg is out of Love Match, a Partner’s Hero bay that broke her maiden sprinting on dirt for Rodney Jenkins before John Kimmel sent her out to a G3 Matchmaker win (9f-T). David Fawkes has been trying to get Fly to the Sky on to the grass, a good idea considering her dam Flying Circle, (who Fawkes trained), was an outstanding turf sprint stakes performer that banked nearly $500k. Neil Howard’s AE Honey Talk likely won’t get in to the field, but her dam Sweet Talker should need no introduction as a G1 winning $1,000,000 earner on the lawn. Sweet Talker’s first foal Perregaux, also with Howard, placed in the G2 Hall of Fame over the summer..
Most Likely: #2 Patrice Merion 2-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Sweet and Lovely 20-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Fly to the Sky 15-1 10th
Super Add: #7 Somali Lemonade 12-1 WON ($22.40)
8th: 36th Ashley T. Cole-NY, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)
Predictably deep and balanced edition of this fun race. Defending champ Uncle T Seven came into the ’10 running off just as weak-looking a performance as his West Point try..
Most Likely: #7 Pocket Cowboys 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Minnie Putt 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Straight Story 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Compliance Officer 5-2 WON ($5.80)
9th: MSW, 2yo, 7f-T (DD, Super)
Boys division countering fillies in the 7th features Team Valor/Motion debut of Mr. Greeley son Thursby, a half to Animal Kingdom. Motion said Saturday that he has talent and will get chances on dirt, but this spot seemed a good launching point for the colt. Serpe FTS Fly Ride is by Street Cry o/o the dam that produced 4X stake annexer Gilded Gold; Hertler returnee Quartermain is half to Queens’ Plate winner Wild Desert; Donk brings out Indy Sea, a Jo’berg bay whose half sister Prospective Saint won the Gardenia and placed in the Princess Rooney..
Most Likely: #4 Trade 7-2 9th
Best Value: #5 Indy Sea 10-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Thursby 3-1 12th
Exotics Use: #1 Apse 6-1 3rd
10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-OFF THE TURF (Super)
Most Likely: #14 Spina 5-2 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #16 Does It Every Time 6-1 7th
Next Best: #13 Tempest Storm 4-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Speckledbird 6-1 2nd
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 2-4-7-12
8: 6-7-8
9: 4-5-11
10: 12-13-14-16
4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
Good luck!
Steve