BEL P6 too squirrely; HOL C/O again to start holiday
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
BELMONT PARK
8th: Recording, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Very solid field of sophomore gals. If this had a $100k purse, it would deserve to get consideration as a G3. There is not one filly here that can be auto-tossed from the exotic mixes..
Most Likely: #6 Naples Bay 7-2: Clement miss has edge 2nd/break.. 5th
Best Value: #7 Hungry Island 8-1: Been adroit closing into soft splits.. WON ($15.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Triune 6-1: Stretches out after chasing hot 7f pace last.. 7th
Super Add: #1 Celestial Kitten 3-1: Winter Memories victim saves ground.. 4th
9th: 94th Dwyer (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)
All the whining about the weakness of the soph class omits the possibility that several of these could end up prominent on the Haskell, Jim Dandy/Travers, PA/WV Derby scenes..
Most Likely: #7 Adios Charlie 6-5: Stake efforts sharp; Ideal spot to stalk & go.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Dominus 2-1: Ouchy rig danger on lead if Tech Fall doesn’t press.. WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #1 Malibu Glow 15-1: Weaver quietly rolling; Sneaky value here..
Super Add: #6 Cool Blue Red Hot: Visually impressive rallying stoutly last.. 3rd
10th: 125th Suburban H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD)
Attempt to remake famed standard into a Whitney prep didn’t draw the field it desired with 23 of the 29 nominations opting elsewhere or failing to be ready. Morning Line and Rule are in MTH’s Salvator Mile for example, while Friend or Foe, Rodman, I Want Revenge, Rail Trip and other Whitney expectant types are in their stalls waiting another month. Frustrating for players, fans, racetrack managements. Despite the limited options however, the event is hardly an open and shut case in any direction among the half dozen..
Most Likely: #1 Rodman 8-5: Brilliant Met try and sharpened further since; Hushion an amazing 47% (36 starters) 2nd off breaks.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Convocation 6-1: 2nd chasing Haynesfield in ’10 edition; Note old school 7f work & 4f bullet days later.. 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Hymn Book 5-2: Was he a dirt horse all along, or is the 3/2-0-1 mark off turf a wet track mirage? Mixed signals.. 2nd
11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)
Most Likely: #4 Boat 3-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Gamblin Fever 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Rocky F 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #1 Shekomeko Son 10-1 9th
<$75 P4 Play:
8: 4-6-7
9: 1-2-7
10: 1-2-3-6
11: 1-4-7-9
3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
MONMOUTH PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (.50 P4, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #7 Ms Silver Oak 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #2 Great Gracie Dane 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Lady Kafca 8-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Tres Leches 5-2 8th
10th: 64th Salvator Mile (G3), 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)
Quite a nice edition of this old race that had seen its’ fortunes ebb and then rise again..
Most Likely: #2 Morning Line 9-5 5th
Best Value: #5 Motovoto 9-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Soaring Empire 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Friesan Fire 8-1 7th
11th: 58th United Nations (G1), 3+, 11f-T (DD, Super)
America’s first important and longest-running turf stake, and living up to International flavor with returning ’10 victor Chinchon and imposing black mare Stacelita (3 Grp 1 wins — 4 if you count disgraceful DQ of Dar Re Mi in ’09 Prix Vermeille)..
Best Value: #7 Stacelita 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Chinchon 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Sleepless Knight 6-1 10th
Super Add: #3 Teaks North 5-1 WON ($15.00)
12th: NJ-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)
Best Value: #3 Taylors Tough 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #11 Seventy Niner 6-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #1 Knockout Punch Kid 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Park Slope 8-1 4th
<$50 P4 Play:
9: 1-2-3-7
10: 2-3-5
11: 7-9
12: 1-3-4-11
4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
HOLLYWOOD PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
5th: CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)
$80k P6 C/O starts here..
Most Likely: #7 Mark of a Warrior 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Thrice the Vice 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Sky Thrill 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Danny James 6-1 4th
6th: 68th Shoemaker Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Good group for this West Coast lawn mile classic. Scored out in this event a year ago nailing $44 Victor’s Cry to close Memorial Day Weekend. Doubt we get that kind of price on today’s winner, even in an upset scenario..
Most Likely: #1 Courageous Cat 9-5: As previously discussed, Mott cylinders firing.. WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #7 Liberian Freighter 5-1: Danger with lack of other speed lined up here.. 6th
Next Best: #5 Caracortado 5-2: Can fire fresh; Took advantage of Cup enrollment opp.. 2nd
7th: CA-MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
This is a very nice group of Cal-bred maidens. Ripe for tripping up P6 & sinking P4’s right off the bat. No room for firster #2 Starspangled Heat (20-1) in the top tabs drawing rail for bow, but Abrams chestnut working sharply and bears watching..
Most Likely: #12 Madeoftherightstuf 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #11 He’s So Stylish 8-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Red Tesla 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Mint Humor 3-1 3rd
8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Love Cassidy but what is so special about King Edward to warrant 7-2 favoritism in this good group?
Most Likely: #4 Make Music for Me 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Sterling Outlook 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Leroy’s Dynameaux 9-2 WON ($12.00)
Super Add: #6 Summer Movie 8-1 5th
9th: 60th Triple Bend (G1), 3+, 7f (DD, Super)
No reason to get creative here: Smiling Tiger is home, and the top trio from the Los Angeles should cover it in this always productive G1 dash..
Most Likely: #3 Smiling Tiger 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #1 M One Rifle 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Amazombie 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Camp Victory 9-2 2nd
10th: CA-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #3 Unhitchthetrailor 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #1 Exotic Slew 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Already There 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Huntsville 7-2 7th
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 1-5-7
6: 1
7: 3-4-11-12
8: 4-5
9: 3
10: 1-3-11
3x1x4x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 3-4-11-12
8: 4-5
9: 1-2-3-7
10: 1-3-11
4x2x3x3 = 72 ($36 for .50