Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby Days at Keeneland and Oaklawn, and Charles Town celebrates tonight with its’ first graded stakes race, the $1,000,000 G3 Classic. Santa Anita will start its’ closing weekend with a $60k+ P6 C/O. Weather in KY and WV will be wet and cool, meaning you should anticipate a faster version of Keeneland’s poly. Have very little time to analyze the action this morning as I make my way to Louisville and a 1pm flight… Enjoy what should be a fun day!

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 15th Shakertown (G3), 3yo+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Grand Adventure 6-1
Next Best: #9 Chamberlain Bridge 2-1
Exotics Use: #4 Silver Timber 5-2
Super Add: #6 Great Attack 5-1

7th: 25th Commonwealth (G2), 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Aikenite 9-5
Next Best: #2 Wise Dan 7-5
Exotics Use: #5 Taqarub 5-1

8th: 23rd Jenny Wiley (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Outstanding cast; Spread wide as possible as many here can win..

Most Likely: #1 Miss Keller 4-1
Next Best: #4 Zagora 3-1
Best Value: #9 Aviate 20-1
Super Add: #8 Fantasia 5-1

9th: 87th Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Other than dirt, and CD proven, Santiva, hard to know if any here can impact Derby, but that doesn’t stop it from being a fun betting race. As noted above, the wet, cool weather will likely produce strong performances from speed types. Watch how the day develops in routes (2nd, 4th, 5th), because if indeed the track goes glib, oddball frontrunner Joes Blazing Aaron will take them a long way..

Best Value: #7 Twinspired 12-1
Next Best: #3 Santiva 3-1
Exotics Use: #11 Crimson China 10-1
Super Add: #5 Billiant Speed 6-1

10th: ALW/N3X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #10 Fugitive Angel 5-2
Best Value: #12 Sweetest Song 10-1
Next Best: #6 Perfect Shirl 10-1
Exotics Use: #1 Shameless 10-1
Super Add: #4 No Explaining 4-1

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-4-9
7: 1-2
8: 1-4-6-8-9-12
9: 3-5-7-11
10: 10

3x2x6x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2
8: 1-4-6-8-9-12
9: 3-4-5-7-10-11
10: 10-12

2x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Mr. Hooker and Adirondack Warrior both are pointing to good efforts while simultaneously returning to their preferred surface..

Best Value: #4 MR. HOOKER 10-1
Next Best: #8 Boat 5-2
Exotics Use: #6 Adirondack Warrior 12-1
Super Add: #3 Surfactant 3-1

OAKLAWN PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

11th: Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Pretty fascinating edition of this event, and you can make a case for virtually all of them if forced. If you don’t think The Factor can or will win, you will have great fun with your plays. I think he’s bona fide, and unless hounded throughout, will acquit himself well. After him, the Von Hemel entry offers value if anywhere close to the ML. After that, who knows. It will depend entirely on how the pace scenario unfolds..

Most Likely: #4 The Factor 7-5
Best Value: #1e Von Hemel entry (Caleb’s Posse/Alternation) 10-1
Exotics Use: #9 Aracharcharch 12-1
Super Add: #7 Truman’s Commander 30-1

CHARLES TOWN

PRE-SCRATCHES

10th: 3rd Charles Town Classic (G3), 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Deliriously fun group for the hard-trying little racetrack’s first graded stake. Expect it to be wet..

Best Value: #8 Duke of Mischief 8-1
Next Best: #2 Tackleberry 4-1
Exotics Use: #7 Gone Astray 10-1
Super Add: #3 Tizway 6-1

Good luck!
Steve