AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 62nd Comely (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

#2 R Holiday Mood has to improve considerably to best ALL of the 4 listed below. I suppose out of fear of Team Pletcher it might make some sense to use her in a back-up ticket, but she is a classic underlay/bet-against in this spot..

Most Likely: #3 Her Smile 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Ava K 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Hot Summer 5-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #7 Royal Sighting 5-1 7th

8th: 51st Bay Shore (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

HRTV’s Rich Migliore said on ATR Friday that he thought Buffum looked in good flesh this week in NY. You can show some respect, but he’s hard to accept at 5-2 off the trip to the desert. J J’s Lucky Train is the kind of horse that regularly wins this event. Dr Disco is a reported SCR to run in Sunday’s NY-bred stake..

Most Likely: #3 J J’s Lucky Train 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #8 Royal Currier 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Buffum 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Justin Phillip 5-1 3rd

9th: 111th Carter H. (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: Super has been ADDED with scratch of Calibrachoa. On the subject of Calibrachoa, remember that speed for seven eighths (7f) is completely different than speed for three quarters (6f). Horses that have form at two turns and are turning back to 7f from classy routes are historically dangerous at this trip..

Most Likely: #7 Apriority 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #10 Morning Line 5-2 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #6 Yawanna Twist 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Sunrise Smarty 15-1 6th

10th: 87th Wood Memorial (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

You may wish to feel differently about Uncle Mo four weeks from now against 19 at Churchill Downs, but in this spot, anything other than a decisive romp by him would be shocking..

Most Likely: #5 Uncle Mo 1-5 3rd
Next Best: #2 Toby’s Corner 8-1 WON ($19.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Arthur’s Tale 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Norman Asbjornson 15-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-5-7
8: 1-2-3-7-8
9: 7-10
10: 5

5x5x2x1 = $50

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Silver Rock 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #3 Screenplay 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Schwartzbewithyou 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Avenstoke 6-1 7th

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Irish Frankie 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Jo the Cat 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Totemtale 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Kingpost 8-1 WON ($9.00)

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very slippery group..

Best Value: #6 Ritual 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Versailles Road 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Let’s Do It 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #4 King’s Command 8-1 2nd

9th: 74th Ashland (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

She wouldn’t have caught my eye necessarily, but Margolis winning Friday with Homerun Berti (7-1) first time synthetic got my attention. Bouquet Booth broke her maiden this surface going 7f, will be a long number and has shown some tactical options. If you want to go against the favorites, she, Wyomia and Delightful Mary are the ones with which you can have fun..

Best Value: #1 Bouquet Booth 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Dancinginherdreams 2-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 Wyomia 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Delightful Mary 5-1 7th

10th: S/ALW, 4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Afleet’s Secret 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Cold Feet 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Dancing Don 15-1 8th
Super Add: #11 Cape Hatchet 5-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Perfect Casting 6-1 4th

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-3-6
7: 7
8: 1-6
9: 1-3-4-5-6-9
10: 2-8

4x1x2x6x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 7
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 1-3-4-5-6-9
10: 1-2-5-6-8-11

1x4x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

HAWTHORNE

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: 54th Illinois Derby (G3), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

OK as a betting affair. Sad as Derby ‘prep’..

Best Value: #6 Sour 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Watch Me Go 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Joe Vann 6-1 WON ($12.60)
Super Add: #8 Zoebear 8-1 2nd

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: 37th Las Cienegas H. (G3), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Unzip Me 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Tanda 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Seperate Forest 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Super Add: #7 La Nez 10-1 3rd

6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$54k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #4 Off the Wall 5-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #8 Blake 9-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Position A 4-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Gallatin’s Run 9-2 5th

7th: 52nd Arcadia (G2), 4yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Caracortado 6-5 5th
Next Best: #6 Jeranimo 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #5 Liberian Freighter 10-1 WON ($20.40)
Super Add: #4 Blue Chagall 8-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 FIRST DUDE 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Coo Cachoo 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Kevlar Kid 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Erbeia 20-1 5th

9th: 31st Providencia (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super0

Most Likely: #7 Cambina 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #3 Wave of Applause 6-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Wallstreeter 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Whisper Louise 6-1 2nd

10th: 74th Santa Anita Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Anthony’s Cross is an underlay that needs improvement to beat several here. The fun price and logical horse to key off is Indian Winter at 8-1..

Best Value: #2 Indian Winter 8-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Comma to the Top 7-2 2nd
Exotoics Use: #4 Silver Medallion 5-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Mr. Commons 4-1 3rd

10th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Hey Maria 9-5 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #10 One Bad Texter 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Black Wildcat 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Warren’s in to it 15-1 8th
Super Add: #14 Lily Amore 8-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 4-8
7: 1-6
8: 5
9: 3-5-7-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7-9
11: 13

2x2x1x4x6x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 5
9: 3-5-7-8
10: 2-3-4-5-7-9
11: 9-10-13

1x4x6x3 = 72 x .50 = $36 ($72 for $1)

This entry was posted on Saturday, April 9th, 2011 at 7:36 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.