Dubai World Cup a rousing start to big Saturday

By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized  |  
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Have never had great success with this card historically, but all the time we spent on ATR this winter with Dick Powell and Pat Cummings gives me some degree of confidence to play around Saturday morning in advance of the big domestic slate. Don’t be shy about spreading and boxing with your prices as the exotics overlays on this particular set of races is usually remarkable. More coverage later Saturday morning of the U.S. action including the Aqueduct P4, Gulfstream P5, Fair Grounds, Turfway and Santa Anita. Hope you did well Friday on the solid results in NoLa.

MEYDAN – DUBAI WORLD CUP

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: Al Quoz Sprint (G2), 5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #11 J J the Jet Plane 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #16 Mr. Gruff 12-1 16th
Next Best: #14 Stradivinsky 4-1 13th
Exotics Use: #2 Happy Dubai 12-1 10th

3rd: Godolphin Mile (G2), 1m (P6, P3, Super)

Best Value: #4 As de Trebol 20-1 11th
Next Best: #13 Skysurfers 9-2 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Imbongi 8-1 13th
Super Add: #12 Rileyskeepingfaith 12-1 12th

4th: UAE Derby (G2), 9.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Zanzamar 8-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Sweet Ducky 12-1 13th
Next Best: #5 Mahooba 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #11 Khawlah 8-1 WON ($9.20)

5th: Golden Shaheen (G1), 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Rocket Man 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #2 Dim Sum 8-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Euroears 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Dynamic Blitz 12-1 8th

6th: Duty Free, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 Wigmore Hall 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Presvis 3-1 WON ($12.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Mendip 10-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Royal Bench 20-1 4th

7th: Sheema Classic (G1), 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Rewilding 6-1 WON ($7.80)
Best Value: #10 Rulership 10-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Dangerous Midge 7-2 14th
Super Add: #4 Calvados Blues 12-1 3rd

8th: World Cup, 10f (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Musir 5-1 7th
Next Best: #12 Twice Over 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #13 Buena Vista 8-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Monterosso 15-1 3rd

 

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Smokin Conrad 15-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Appledore 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Stylish Fella 7-2 8th
Super Add: #6 Ducale 6-1 2nd

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Overcommunication 4-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #2 Khan of Khans 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Middle of the Nite 6-1 6th

9th: 104th Ladies H., F&M-3+, 9F (DD, Super)

Anticipate Cody Samora SCR..

Best Value: #6 R Betty Graybull 6-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #1 Quiet Giant 3-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Speightful Affair 8-1 4th

10th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Redwood Fever 3-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #2 Green Bananas 5-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Talk to Nick 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dixie Nite Out 10-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-6-8
8: 1
9: 1-2-6
10: 2-3-4-9

4x1x3x4 = $48

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-Inner Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Giant Move 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Wild Entry 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Power Rules 6-1 11th
Super Add: #9 Father Lucey 20-1 10th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-Outer (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Chinglish 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #2 Awed 20-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Steel Bridge 6-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Dynamite Dude 8-1 6th

9th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Christina d’Oro 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Resoundingly 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Snow Trial 10-1
Super Add: #4 Delightful Dawn 12-1

10th: 50th Pan American (G3), 4+, 12f-Outer Turf (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Rahy’s Attorney 4-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #2 Musketier 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Prince Will I Am 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Loup Breton 6-1 4th

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

Best Value: #3 Gunman 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Wonder Beyond 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Saint Nicholas 3-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Top Business 6-1 8th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 7-11
8: 4
9: 1-4-8-9
10: 2-5-7
11: 2-3-7-9

2x1x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-4-5
9: 1-4-8-9
10: 2-5-7
11: 2-3-7-9

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, Super)

Quick turnaround for Margolis fave off big debut. Usually a situation to play a bit against..

Most Likely: #2 Nakano 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Marvel Gaye 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Vin Santo 8-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Crepe Myrtle 9-2 4th

3rd: 43rd Bayou H., F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3)

Most Likely: #3 Category Seven 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Valli With a Vow 4-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Upperline 9-5 WON ($4.40)

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-70y (P3)

Team Stall taking the slow, cautious route with huge debuting Pulpit colt. As close to unbeatable as you ever see..

Most Likely: #6 Bind 2-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Prime Cut 4-1 WON ($13.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Lusterdust 15-1 5th

5th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Harvest Home 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 I Am the Sherriff 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Bauers Got Hours 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #7 Archon 10-1 7th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-6-9
3: 1-3-4-5
4: 6
5: 1-5-6-7-8-9

4x4x1x6 = $96 x .50 = $48

6th: 86th New Orleans H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #4 Birdrun 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Mission Impazible 3-1 WON ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Giant Oak 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 El Caballo 10-1 6th

7th: 60th Duncan Kenner, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1e Margolis entry 2-1 3rd/4th
Best Value: #7 Snapshot 9-2 8th
Next Best: #6 Backtalk 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Riley Tucker 7-2 5th

8th: 45th Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Completely wide open with several improving types that make it tough to discern scenario. Snow Fall (Now SCR’D) leaped forward first route fitting emergent War Front progeny pattern. May be right filly on which to make a stand in multis seeing as how any other conclusion means using 4, 5 maybe 6 of these. Tough group and every bit as challenging as the boy’s race an hour later..

Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #8 St. John’s River 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Daisy Devine 8-1 WON ($11.00)
Super Add: #3 Switching Gears 8-1 9th

9th: 19th Mervin Muniz Jr. Memorial H. (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Yikes. Any one in this is possible..

Best Value: #2 Sleepless Knight 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Moryba 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Workin for Hops 6-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Expansion 8-1 2nd

10th: 98th Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P3, Super)

Curious edition of this great race with a few logical contender (Mucho Macho Man, Machen, Elite Alex) facing off against a hatful of lesser known types seeking Derby dough. Difficult race in which to build a ticket, as the top three figure to fill the board with Nacho Business, Nehro, Majestic Harbor, Left, Wilkinson and even Le Mans all candidates to invade the tri or super..

Most Likely: #6 Machen 7-2 5th
Next Best: #4 Mucho Macho Man 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 (POE) Nacho Business 10-1 WON/8th
Exotics Use: #11 Elite Alex 6-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-6-7
8: 3-5-8
9: 2-4-5-9
10: 1-4-6-11

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

TURFWAY PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P6, P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Sir P. T. Chalone 3-1 7th
Next Best: #8 No Rain No Rainbow 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Calipari’s Kitten 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #4 Sgt. Mauro 4-1 3rd

6th: 25th Queen, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Midst 9-5 4th
Best Value: #2 Sweet Temptress 6-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Happy Week 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Hyperlink 2-1 2nd

7th: 18th Hansel, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Murjan 10-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Ghost is Clear 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Getaway Guy 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Banjammer 15-1 4th

8th: 29th Bourbonette Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Favorites very vulnerable for various reasons. Swinging for fences..

#9 Jelly Cable a SCR after initial notice..

Best Value: #8 Angelica Zapata 10-1
Next Best: #4 Lilacs and Lace 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Summer Soiree 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #3 Marion Ravenwood 10-1 5th

@$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-5-8
6: 2-3
7: 1-5-7
8: 4-8-9/SCR

3x2x3x3 = $54

9th: 27th Rushaway, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Swift Warrior 3-1 WON ($10.00)
Best Value: #9 Swagger Jack 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 The Ole Gen 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Crimson China 4-1 2nd

10th: 40th Spiral (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

Don’t think there are any serious Derby horses here but it doesn’t stop it from being a fun betting race. Trying to squeeze down Positive Response is the key..

Best Value: #6 Rescind the Trade 12-1 12th
Next Best: #2 Positive Response 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #11 Twinspired 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Taptowne 20-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Beachcombing 12-1 4th

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