9/3: Saratoga (Day 38); Del Mar (7th-11th); KY Downs (4th-11th)
By kasept. Filed in Uncategorized |
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: Saranac (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-Inner (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Annapolis 2-5 WON ($2.30)
Next Best: #1 Celestial City 3-1 DH-2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Fuerteventura 6-1 DH-2nd
5th: S/ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 King Moonracer 8-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Sugar Gray Leonard 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Drink the Wind 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Montatham 8-1 4th
6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Champions Dream 5-2: Justify (30% FTS) o/o SW Dancinginherdreams.. WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #7 Desert Wolf 10-1: Protonico (!) colt appears well drilled for bow.. 5th
Next Best: #2 Mindtap 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Cagliostro 8-1 6th
7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Elite Power 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #9 Meraas 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1a Amundson 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Payne 15-1 7th
8th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)
There will be urge to boost Crupi and the 2 Motts with experience, but feels like there’s a first or 3 (Instant Coffee, Briterdayzahead, Fantasist, Dubyuhnell & Shug Constitution half Juan Valdez) that can supersede them..
Best Value: #2 Briterdayzahead 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Rocket Can 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Instant Coffee 10-1 WON ($31.80)
Super Add: #10 Crupi 5-2 3rd
P5 Grid:
4: 3 (A), – (B), – (C)
5: 5-10 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
6: 9 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 1-5-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-2-6-10 (A), 3-8-9 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 1x4x1x4x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 1x2x1x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16
P4 Grid:
5: 5-10 (A), 1-8 (B), – (C)
6: 9 (A), – (B), – (C)
7: 1-5-6-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-2-6-10 (A), 3-8-9 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x7 = 112 x .50 = $56
All A’s: 2x1x4x4 = 32 x .50 = $16
9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, G/S, P3, DD)
Thoroughly impossible group in make or break spot on the card..
Best Value: #9 Ocean Atlantique 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Analyze It 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Eyes On Target 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Monition 8-1 5th
10th: 44th Flower Bowl (G2), F&M-4+, 11f-Inner (P4, P3, DD)
Absolutely no pace here..
Most Likely: #4 War Like Goddess 2-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Virginia Joy 7-2 WON ($11.80)
Best Value: #2 Flanigan’s Cove 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Temple City Terror 8-1 4th
P4 Grid:
7: 5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 1-2-6 (A), 3-10 (B), 8-9 (C)
9: 2-9-10 (A), 4-6 (B), – (C)
10: 4 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x5x5x1 = $50 ($25 for .50)
All A’s: 2x3x3 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backups: 2x2x3x1 = $12 ($6 for .50) + 2x3x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)
11th: 104th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (P3, DD)
Americanrevolution can stalk and pounce Tax & Olympiad..
Most Likely: #5 Americanrevolution 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Olympiad 2-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #7 Keepmeinmind 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 First Captain 4-1 3rd
12th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (DD)
Best Value: #3 Mr Breadwinner 9-2 WON ($8.10)
Next Best: #6 Patient Capital 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 One More Baby 6-1 6th
Super Add: #12 Commander Compton 10-1 10th
13th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T
Most Likely: #11 QUICK POWER NAP 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #9 Eli Dancer 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 My Cara Mia Mine 8-1 –
Exotics Use: #7 Rent Control 8-1 –
P5 Grid:
9: 2-9-10 (A), 4-6 (B), – (C)
10: 4 (A), – (B), 3 (C)
11: 2-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 3-6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 11 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 5x1x2x3x2 = $60 ($30 for .50)
All A’s: 3x1x2x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)
Backup: 3x1x2x3x1 = $18 ($9 for .50)
P4 Grid:
10: 4 (A), 3 (B), 2-6 (C)
11: 2-5 (A), – (B), – (C)
12: 3-6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
13: 11 (A), 9 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 2x2x3x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)
All A’s: 1x2x3x1 = $6 ($3 for .50)
Backup (2-6 in 10th): 2x2x3x1 = $12 ($6 for .50)
$1 Pick 4 (3/2/3,4,11,13/6,11) Paid $249.74 ($124.87 for .50)
KENTUCKY DOWNS
POST-SCRATCHES
5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 10.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Wide open group..
Best Value: #6 Silky Warrior 20-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Pearl Earring 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Elle Est Forte 4-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Shad Nation 6-1 WON ($8.56)
6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)
Parent’s Pride obviously the filly to beat and if it’s not her, then it’s a grab bag..
Most Likely: #4 Parent’s Pride 6-5 –
Best Value: #6 Bodieful 15-1 –
Next Best: #5 Macadamia 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #12 Aboukir Bay 8-1 WON ($27.66)
7th: Juvenile Fillies, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)
Pretty skimpy data set for this..
Best Value: #2 Janis Joplin 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Knockyoursocksoff 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Callie’s Grit 6-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Chop Chop 7-2 WON ($10.22)
8th: Juvenile, 2yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
CANCELLED
Best Value: #9 Anglophile 6-1
Next Best: #4 Really Good 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Castleknock 9-2
Super Add: #7 Laver 12-1
P4 Grid:
5: 3-6 (A), 9-11 (B), – (C)
6: 4 (A), – (B), 5-6-12 (C)
7: 2-4-6-8 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 4-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x1x4x3 = $48 ($24 for .50)
All A’s: 2x1x4x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
9th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD)
CANCELLED
Most Likely: #11 Nota Bene 6-1
Best Value: #3 Madrilena 10-1
Next Best: #12 Touch of Class 8-1
Exotics Use: #4 Ride the Plan 12-1
10th: Mint Million (G3), 3+, 1m-T (DD)
CANCELLED
Well matched group for this including last year’s winner Pixelate..
Best Value: #2 Cavalry Charge 6-1
Next Best: #3 Pixelate 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 Kentucky Ghost 6-1
Super Add: #4 Grey’s Fable 8-1
11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Hi-5)
CANCELLED
Best Value: #8 JOYFUL APPLAUSE 5-1
Next Best: #11 Shady Road 7-2
Super Add: #4 Bali Kuta 15-1
Hi-5 Play: #12 Partline 6-1
P5 Grid:
7: 2-4 (A), 6-8 (B), – (C)
8: 4-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-11-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-3 (A), 4-7 (B), – (C)
11: 8 (A), – (B), 11 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (11 or 14 in 11th): 2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
P4 Grid:
8: 4-5-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 3-11-12 (A), – (B), – (C)
10: 2-3 (A), 4-7 (B), – (C)
11: 8-11 (A), 4 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x3 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A’s: 3x3x2x1 = 36 x .50 = $18
Good luck!
DEL MAR
POST-SCRATCHES
6th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
As discussed with Priv and Brad Free, clearly going to be a key baby boys race with serious Baffert, Sadler, Callaghan & McCarthy runners..
Best Value: #3 National Treasure 5-1
Next Best: #10 Hawker 3-1
Exotics Use: #8 Practical Move 5-2
Super Add: #9 Midnight Taxes 20-1
7th: DMR Mile (G2, 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD))
Most Likely: #5 Hong Kong Harry 3-1
Next Best: #7 Cathkin Peak 4-1
Best Value: #6 Goliad 5-1
Exotics Use: #10 Astronaut 12-1
8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
Tricky read with well-matched group that lacks typical Cali speed..
Best Value: #8 Todo Fino 6-1
Next Best: #9 Exalted 4-1
Exotics Use: #5 Redline 7-2
Super Add: #1 Mr. Impossible 8-1
9th: DMR Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD)
There’s not much pace here and the logicals are mostly coming from off. This thing could get squirrely..
Most Likely: #7 Mackinnon 3-1
Next Best: #5 Dandy Warhol 4-1
Best Value: #3 War At Sea 6-1
Exotics Use: #9 Balnikhov 5-2
10th: Pacific Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)
Yes, there questions to answer, but isn’t Flightline long gone by the time they’re asked? Feels a lot like the Knicks Go dialogue..
Most Likely: #5 Flightline 1-5
Next Best: #2 Country Grammer 4-1
Exotics Use: #3 Royal Ship 8-1
11th: DMR Handicap (G2), 3+, 11f-T (Hi-5)
Most Likely: #9 Master Piece 3-1
Best Value: #1 Dicey Mo Chara 15-1
Next Best: #3 Gregdar 5-1
Exotics Use: #5 Tango Tango Tango 20-1
P5 Grid:
7: 5-7-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
8: 8-9 (A), 1-5 (B), – (C)
9: 5-7 (A), 3-9 (B), – (C)
10: 5 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 1-3-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x4x1x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A’s: 3x2x2x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18
P4 Grid:
8: 1-5-8-9 (A), – (B), – (C)
9: 5-7 (A), 3-9 (B), – (C)
10: 5 (A), – (B), – (C)
11: 1-3-9 (A), 2-5 (B), – (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x4x1x5 = 80 x .50 = $40
All A’s: 4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12
Good luck!
Steve