Aqu 1st

Anybody see that 20 length form reversal?
I see a lotta accusations about some high profile trainers, but I don't see the guys I read about performing "miracles" like that.

Anybody wanna estimate how many Beyer points she will go up, or how many sheet points she will go down?
I'll start the sheet point bidding at a 5 point lifetime top. Do I hear 6?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Anybody see that 20 length form reversal?
I see a lotta accusations about some high profile trainers, but I don't see the guys I read about performing "miracles" like that.

Has it occured to you that it is a souped up speed track and that performance was yet another example of a track being responsible for a horse's performance?

But hey, I don't trust anybody, and will certainly pass on your concerns to Roddy Valente, who owned the first winner, next time I see him.

I had the 9 in a $1 exacta with the 2 horse and the 1, 10 and 11.

But more importantly, do you think it is going to be a merry go round today? I am putting together a pick 6 ticket.

[Seattleallstar]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Anybody wanna estimate how many Beyer points she will go up, or how many sheet points she will go down?
I'll start the sheet point bidding at a 5 point lifetime top. Do I hear 6?

I didnt see the race

I loved the turn back in distance on the 9 and the horse has some speed. Once the 9 got the lead I knew it was lights out because of the turn back. But I think we are looking at a track that is going to be speed speed speed.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Has it occured to you that it is a souped up speed track and that performance was yet another example of a track being responsible for a horse's performance?

But hey, I don't trust anybody, and will certainly pass on your concerns to Roddy Valente, who owned the first winner, next time I see him.

thanks for the 'illumination. surely noone had give that any thought.

thanks also for the latest insipid name drop. it's been a couple days since your last.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

thanks for the 'illumination. surely noone had give that any thought.

thanks also for the latest insipid name drop. it's been a couple days since your last.

Well, I guess your pal Mike didn't, else he wouldn't have posted his rant. Actually, as far as Roddy is concerned, Mike is the one who has dropped his name around here, I'm just the one who is friendly with him. I was only trying to help your pal Mike in letting him know I would make sure to pass along his concerns. Certainly an owner would want to know if his trainer was cheating.

I'm glad I have increased your limited vocabulary. It warms my heart to know I have helped the needy.

[philcski]

I missed seeing the 2nd race but the 3rd was won from well off the pace. Track seems to be playing reasonable today. The 9 ran much better, but she had shown high speed in her previous 2 starts against slightly better going long then stopped, how is this a shock when she returns to her preferred distance of 6F (perhaps we should call her "One Turn" Halo?)

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

I missed seeing the 2nd race but the 3rd was won from well off the pace. Track seems to be playing reasonable today. The 9 ran much better, but she had shown high speed in her previous 2 starts against slightly better going long then stopped, how is this a shock when she returns to her preferred distance of 6F (perhaps we should call her "One Turn" Halo?)

I would be careful. In the second a hopeless sprinter stretching out just got nailed at the wire by the 6:5 stalker and nobody made up any perceptible ground. In the third it was a contentious, while not super fast, pace, and the rail horse held gamely ( at 13:1 ), though one could make a case she was an overlay, and the winner sat a perfect inside trip behind the duelers, who finished second and third. She was nowhere near " well off the pace ".

It may not be the speedway we saw a week or so ago, and first races can be aberational, but I am not inclined to say the track is anything close to even.

That being said, I like a number of horses later in the card that aren't speed types. Why? Because I'm an idiot and a glutton for punishment.

[ELA]

I think to jump to conclusions based upon one aspect -- in this case "form reversal" and "miracles" -- is a bit myopic. I think Andy brings up the major contributory factor in the track condition.

Now, aside from the # itself -- was this horse not competitive? Sure, not ML favorite or anything of the like. Maybe it's because I know Bruce and Roddy, but you don't have to know them to know that they race horses where they can win -- Period! Another West Coast import, after a couple of starts, etc. I could have seen Bruce going either way after the last race. It would have been aggressive to drop after the last one, but I've seen him do it. Touger with a NY bred.

Eric

[blackthroatedwind]

To be fair, Eric, without saying it was a bias aided win, it was a pretty tough performance to defend.....especially in relation to the horse's pps.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I would be careful. In the second a hopeless sprinter stretching out just got nailed at the wire by the 6:5 stalker and nobody made up any perceptible ground. In the third it was a contentious, while not super fast, pace, and the rail horse held gamely ( at 13:1 ), though one could make a case she was an overlay, and the winner sat a perfect inside trip behind the duelers, who finished second and third. She was nowhere near " well off the pace ".

It may not be the speedway we saw a week or so ago, and first races can be aberational, but I am not inclined to say the track is anything close to even.

That being said, I like a number of horses later in the card that aren't speed types. Why? Because I'm an idiot and a glutton for punishment.

I guess she wasn't that far back, agreed. Thought the 2 was an overlay as well (these NYB fallowances on the inner are so often crapshoots of manytime-losers.)

If the track is playing fair, the 4, 6, and 12 have a big chance of knocking off this phony even money in the 4th. She's not much more than 1 or 2 lengths better than this group if the track doesn't carry her gate speed she showed in the last.

[philcski]

Also, if the Gravesend is NOT won from off the pace with all that speed in there, I'd be shocked.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Also, if the Gravesend is NOT won from off the pace with all that speed in there, I'd be shocked.

Win or lose, Bishop Court Hill is the speed of the speed.

The fourth winner wasn't carrying me on her back this week. I believe the Pick-4 with her was just over $2900 last time she ran. I didn't need any of that.

[philcski]

I think my inital impression was wrong, the rail appears to be the place to be. I liked the 12 a little bit, too bad she got dumped at the start.

A not so crazy bomb for the 5th: the 3, who has absolutely zero early speed but should be closer to the pace here by default with most of these possessing the same trait. Hopefully Norby finds the rail and stays there.

[cmorioles]

With regards to the first race winner, I had the following "early speed" numbers:

2  Mama Theresa           4-1 EP  63
1  Wisdom and Luck        5-1 EP  68
3  Charming Jill         12-1 PS  57
4  Judy Liner S.         15-1 S   61
5  Quiet Rendition       10-1 S   62
6  Miss L Woods          15-1 PS  49
7  Holy Kryptonite        9-2 P   61
8  Precise Lady           8-1 P   66
9  Two Turn Halo          8-1 P   78
10 Clever Freud          10-1 E   65
11 Point Me to It        12-1 EP  56
12 Chequ'er Alibi        30-1 PS  64

That 10 point advantage for the winner is about 3 lengths at the 1/2 mile call. I wouldn't call this a huge form reversal, just catching a field the horse could beat.

[philcski]

in the 6th the 4 figures to get the lead and the rail under JV. I'll bite.

I'd love to play the 9 at 14-1 (debut was better than it looked, made a nice move on the turn on the outside) but I don't think she can get it done with the post draw and the track condition.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, I guess your pal Mike didn't, else he wouldn't have posted his rant. Actually, as far as Roddy is concerned, Mike is the one who has dropped his name around here, I'm just the one who is friendly with him. I was only trying to help your pal Mike in letting him know I would make sure to pass along his concerns. Certainly an owner would want to know if his trainer was cheating.

I'm glad I have increased your limited vocabulary. It warms my heart to know I have helped the needy.

who's mike?

Anyway, thanks as always. Especially for the vocab hints. I don't think mine's bad (I have an IQ over 90; it's been tested!), but it's always a good thing to hear your insights, however indolent they may be.

You mention you're a "glutton for punishment." Hopefully you'll evolve past that 'fear of regret' factor and start passing a few races.

Can't see how you folks can play the A inner now; it's a calvary charge to the inside and every race looks like they're stacked two-deep at the half at Yonkers.

To each his own. Keep up the good work.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Oracle,I remember very well when this guy's father died.It was like the night before the Spring Aqu Meet started last year.So,this guy wasn't around to saddle etc. his own horses.You have no idea the bloodbath that took place in that showdown contest the 1st 3 days of that meet.People were getting blown out of that contest(myself included) because of using this guy's horses when he wasn't around.I think I had 10 tickets to start that contest,and only had 2 left after the 1st 3 days of the meet.Those were some pretty good horses that were running off the board.