8/14: Saratoga ~ Day 25 ($107k P6 C/O)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Jonathon Sheppard (G1), 4+, 19f-Nat'l Fences (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Zarak the Brave 9-5 DNF-Fell
Best Value: #3 Abaan 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Pickanumber 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Too Friendly 6-1 6th


2nd: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Cinderella's Cause 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Midtown Lights 9-5 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #4 Echo in Eternity 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Saratoga Kisses 6-1 5th


3rd: OC/Cond., F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Stakes level purse for a stakes quality field. 3,024 possible combinations for the Super and none of them would surprise..

Best Value: #5 Strikingly Spun 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Midnight Mile 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Blissful 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Not So Close 4-1 5th


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$107k P6 C/O starts here..

Really good group of late season MDN fillies featuring strong C. Brown pair (Seasonal debuting Helcia & 2nd timer Cost Containment), $1.5MM Asmussen-Winchill Islander, 2nd out Al Stall (7/4-1-0 at meet) Lord I Wonder, Turf/Dirt stretchout from Linda Rice Tipple and capable-looking De Paz 4yo for Barry Schwartz (Refuse to Lose). St. Lewis PRX invader Sweet Distraction looks out-gunned..

Best Value: #5 Helcia 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Islander 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Cost Containment 3-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #1 Lord I Wonder 5-2 4th


5th: NY-Suzie O'Cain, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner (P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Munny Grab 5-1 3rd ~ Depaula Play of the Day
Next Best: #2 Summer Whirl 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Boxed Wine 6-1 6th9.70


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Annascaul 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #8 Mischief Lady 8-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Cara's Dreamweaver 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Young At Heart 8-1 5th


P5 Grid:

2: 1 (A), - (B), 3 (C)
3: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-7 (A), 1-3-4-6 (B), - (C)
5: 2-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 1x3x6x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (CAAAA): 1x3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (3 in 2nd)


P4 Grid:

3: 1-4-5 (A), - (B), - (C)
4: 5-7 (A), 1-3-4-6 (B), - (C)
5: 2-4-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x6x3x2 = 108 x .50 = $54
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Ugh..

Most Likely: #6 R Funny Bizness 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Fontanafredda 5-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Condiment Girl 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Perpetual Praise 6-1 6th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-Inner (DD)

If favored Revilita doesn't win, this gets messy in a hurry..

Most Likely: #4 Revalita 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Destiny Star 10-1 WON ($11.60)
Next Best: #11 Preliminary 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Curlin's Girl 10-1 10th


9th: OC-S/ALW, 3+, 5.5f-T

Most Likely: #8 Hilarious Affair 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Java Buzz 3-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Feathers Road 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 (POE) Borletti 6-1 6th


P6 Grid:

4: 5-7 (A), 1-3-4 (B), - (C)
5: 7 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 10-11 (B), - (C)
9: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 5x1x2x2x4x2 = $160
All A's: 3x1x2x2x2x2 = $48


P5 Grid:

5: 7 (A), 2 (B), 4-6 (C)
6: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 10-11 (B), - (C)
9: 3-8 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x2x4x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64
All A's: 1x2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (CAAAA): 2x2x4x2x2 = 64 x .50 = $32 (4-6 in 5th)


P4 Grid:

6: 5-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-5-6 (A), - (B), - (C)
8: 3-4 (A), 10-11 (B), - (C)
9: 3-8 (A), 10 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x4x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]