Finished Handicapping

[cal828]

I have my 4 race skein (or scheme) done and just think, only about 60 hours or so to second guess myself, tear it all up and throw in the dumpster and come up with a new skein 30 or 40 times.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by cal828

I have my 4 race skein (or scheme) done and just think, only about 60 hours or so to second guess myself, tear it all up and throw in the dumpster and come up with a new skein 30 or 40 times.

In horse racing, I've found it's not good to overthink your gut reactions but that's just me . . . whaddoo I know?!

[cal828]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

In horse racing, I've found it's not good to overthink your gut reactions but that's just me . . . whaddoo I know?!

I was just joking. I haven't changed a thing so far, but that is unusual for me. When a person is handicapping a 20 horse field a lot of "what ifs" can come up. I may make a few last minute adjustments, if I think I've got something completely wrongheaded, but for now I am content with my picks.

On another subject, does this seem like an unusually sedate Derby Year? Seems like for most Derby years the whackos come out of the wood work for the Derby, but this year has been pretty quiet. Maybe people are just exhausted by everything that seems to be going on in the larger world outside of horse racing. Probably grateful for a moment of distraction from all that.

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by cal828

I was just joking. I haven't changed a thing so far, but that is unusual for me. When a person is handicapping a 20 horse field a lot of "what ifs" can come up. I may make a few last minute adjustments, if I think I've got something completely wrongheaded, but for now I am content with my picks.

On another subject, does this seem like an unusually sedate Derby Year? Seems like for most Derby years the whackos come out of the wood work for the Derby, but this year has been pretty quiet. Maybe people are just exhausted by everything that seems to be going on in the larger world outside of horse racing. Probably grateful for a moment of distraction from all that.

Maybe it's the King's Coronation. Poor timing by the Brits!!! On handicapping, I used to make last minute changes by listening to the media "Experts", "Analysts" too much. I have found, for me, my handicapping approach usually proves to be much more on point. That said, I'm not burning up the track so far this year but after last year I can't complain.

[JolyB]

It could also be that none of the entrants have been so dominant as to capture everyone's attention and get them excited. I can't remember when the entire field has had such a low set of Beyers. Some of the final preps have had visually impressive performances but might have been the result of simply beating mediocore fields.

A number of my analyses have concluded, "He's a nice horse and I wouldn't be shocked if he won, but .....". What has followed the "but..." has been everything from "I couldn't bet him unless the odds were a lot higher" or "he is simply too lightly raced to have the foundation and toughness to win such a race" or "his last race was a wonderful improvement and could make him a contender, but was the improvement simply because he took to the synthetic surface.?" All in all, I'm still out at sea as far as betting this race is concerned. I've got 7 or 8 throwouts that I wouldn't bet under any circumstances (of course, last year Rich Strike would have been in that category also). After that, it may become a matter of watching the tote and spreading among several who seem to offer value since I see a relatively weak field without a standout winner. I say all of this believing that Forte is a legitimate favorite and has nothing wrong with him, but the price makes a bet on him unappealing and TT is a very easy horse to root for, but...

More work to do.....

[cal828]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Maybe it's the King's Coronation. Poor timing by the Brits!!! On handicapping, I used to make last minute changes by listening to the media "Experts", "Analysts" too much. I have found, for me, my handicapping approach usually proves to be much more on point. That said, I'm not burning up the track so far this year but after last year I can't complain.

I wish it were something as simple as the Coronation. That will be over soon enough and is something for the Brits to worry about.

As for handicapping. I try to keep my own counsel, but admit looking to see what others are thinking, but I don't usually let it influence me much. I might be better off if I did. What is that saying? A person who acts as their own attorney has a fool for a client. Seems like that might apply to horse prognostication. One thing about it, we have plenty of astute handicappers right here at DT and even at CTTP, so no reason to go too far afield to seek picks.

[cal828]

" I can't remember when the entire field has had such a low set of Beyers. "

I don't go by Beyers most of the time because I don't have a subscription to DRF; although I'm sure I could because I will be amazed, if the Derby is not their free Race of the Day on Saturday. I used to think DRF was the gold standard, but I have drifted away from their use and now I actually prefer the Brisnet PPs; however, one knock I have on them is they sometimes seem to make every horse in a race seem pretty much alike, especially in their speed figures, so you really have to do some digging to come up with some separation in the contenders. Course, that could just be me and others don't experience that at all and it could be that sometimes there are no standouts in a race that is well balanced among the contenders. Look at Race 9 on Saturday. It looks to me like almost every horse in the race could win it.

[DonGuido]

I basicslly look at early and late pace, see how they finished and lastly if needed the speed figure of the race and quality of the race. Consitency in all of those or improvement in their finishes is important. I also look trainers and jockeys, hot or not at a track or in general and those known for turf specialties or not. I like the turf races a lot. Bloodlines may influence me some if I'm still a little uncertain. Then there's always the dart board if I'm still scratching my head.

Honetly sometimes I will handicap races just using the DRF Entries and the ML odds are not always the key. I'll take this approach every once in awhile just for a change of pace. I have been pretty successful with that at times. I mean it's only for bragging rights and it's not real money.