10/15: Far Hills Steeplechase

[Flatterer]

Far Hills features 7 races and pari-mutuel wagering that for the first time includes a couple of Pick 4s, a Pick 5, and a Pick 6. In addition, since there are no on-site betting tellers or betting kiosks, all wagers will be online at most advance deposit wagering sites (ADWs). People onsite will not be able to download an ADW application for betting due to limited bandwidth, so if it is not on your phone before you get there quoting the soup Nazi, “no betting for you!”

Based on pre pandemic numbers from 2019, onsite handle was $294,000 and ADW was $144,000. It will be tough to gauge handle since there is no onsite betting this year. Hopefully, Fox Sports live coverage will generate handle. The total win/place/show pools were $30,000 to $40,000 a race and gimmick bet pools (EX/TRI/SUPER/DD) were low, between $1000 and $3000 per gimmick bet per race. So, it will be possible to take the entire pool with a $0.10 or $0.50 bet.

Monmouth at the Meadowlands cancelled after the first race last night due to unsafe track conditions so it will be interesting to see just how soft the turf will be. Advantage goes to all the European shippers that are use to a softer turf.

Owners of Bruton Street love to bet so their 5 runners over 4 races will be favorite or close to favorite.


Race 1 is the Harry E. Harris stakes restricted to 4YOs. #4 Proven Innocent, the Entenmann Novice winner that defeated super mare The Mean Queen at the Big A, is a standout in this race. #6 Tease and Seize, the British invader with 2 jumps wins from 4 starts, is the only real win threat. Everyone else is running underneath.

Projected order of finish: 4-6-2-1-3-5

For betting purposes: A) 4 3rd B) 6 C) 2 WON ($18.80)-1 2nd


Race 2 is the Gladstone for 3YOs. Experience is important for success and foreign invaders with experience have dominated previous runnings of this race. #5 The Insider for trainer Gordon Elliot has 2 jump wins and a second place from 3 starts in Ireland, defeating big 11-13 horse fields. #2 Hoffman from England ran well in his US debut finishing third while #3 Fleeting Atte won the prep race at Shawan Downs.

Projected order of finish: 5-3-2-7-6-1-4

For betting purposes: A) 5 WON ($4.00) B) 3 3rd - 2 2nd


Race 3 is the Foxbrook Novice stakes. #5 Ted Hastings for trainer Gordon Elliot looks tough hitting the board in 5 straight jump races. #1 Howyabud won the Kiser Novice at Saratoga and was 7 lengths behind Proven Innocent and The Mean Queen in the Entenmann Novice. If Proven Innocent dominates race 1, #1 Howyabud is a win candidate for this race. #4 Baltimore Kid gets in light with 144 pounds. #3 Awakened ran fast at Shawan breaking his maiden and finished 4 lengths behind Proven Innocent at Nashville in May. #6 Decisive Triumph will fade at the end of the race. For horizontal wagers, single #5 or spread and use #1-3-4-5.

Projected order of finish: 5-1-4-3-6-2

For betting purposes: A) 5 WON ($6.00) - 1 2nd EX ($18.40) B) 4-3


Race 4 is the Appleton ratings handicap. #6 Theocrat is the top choice with 2 strong closing wins this summer. #3 Soviet Pimpernel from Ireland for trainer Gordon Elliot should run well but has not won since 2019 and #4 Fighinirishtabit gets in light with 144 pounds after 2 summer wins. #2 Redicean gets class relief but has been well beaten this year and gets blinkers to try and shake him up. #1 Grey Falcon beat 12 runners in a training flat race at Shawan Downs in a slow time of 2:28 1/5 for 1 3/8 miles. The other training flat race that day was 4 seconds faster. Track conditions should help #1 Grey Falcon.

Projected order of finish: 6-3-4-1-2-5

For betting purposes: A) 6 2nd B) 3 3rd-4 C) 1


Race 5 is the 2 mile flat race. You know how to handicap flat races but there is a graded stakes winner #3 Cross Boarder, a stakes winner #2 Oceans Map, and #11 Fearsome winner of the 2019 edition of this race. #8 Agitare closed 10 lengths in the last quarter mile to win a 1 1/8 mile training flat at Foxfield in a bog courtesy of hurricane Ian and moves up on good to soft turf. #12 Clubbing ran well over testing conditions to break his maiden at Kentucky Downs. #1 Mystical Man has been off for 11 months and may need a race but barn Bruton Street has high hopes and bets with both fists. #7 Royne shows up for trainer Michael Dickenson. Spread race.

Projected order of finish: 3-11-8-2-12-7-1-5-6-4-9-14-13-10

For betting purposes: A) 3 3rd-11-8 WON ($39.00)-2 B) 12-7-1


Race 6 the weight for age Grand National is the big race of the day. #2 Snap Decision finally gets a weight break and will run well. The biggest challenge will be #5 Hewick with 7 jumps wins from Ireland. #3 Pistol Whipped ran second to #2 Snap Decision at level weights in Nashville, bled in his last race so gets back on Lasix today. After that it is a toss-up for runners underneath but the European horses may have an advantage with the turf condition.

Projected order of finish: 2-5-3-6-7-4-1

For betting purposes: A) 2-5 WON ($6.20) B) 3


Race 7 is a high dollar maiden race. Look at who beat who and runners that ran close to next race winners. #4 Elusive Soul will not run and scratch. #1 Uco Valley ran fast at Shawan Downs running second to Awakened and moves up if Awakened runs well in race 3. #5 Cool Jet ran well in the Foxfield bog and will like the turf condition. #10 Neotropic tries jumps for the first time and will get bet by Bruton Street with Marine Corp Captain Conner Hankin in the irons. # 6 Pure Courage ran 6 lengths behind #1 Uco Valley at Shawan and can hit the board. #7 Parish Delight was well beaten in a turf prep at Foxfield but has run well in the spring.

Projected order of finish: 1-5-6-7-10-2-9-3-8

For betting purposes: A) 1-5 WON ($10.60) B) 6 2nd C) 7-10 3rd


Good Luck at the races!