Thursday, 6/18: Nick Tammaro's Belmont Analysis presented by RTN

[Kasept]

BELMONT – 6/18/2020

Race 1- 1 st #5 YELLOW BRICK ROAD 2 ND #1 SNEER 3 RD #4 THANKFUL

#5 YELLOW BRICK ROAD took serious money in a loaded looking MSW field on debut last fall and now
comes back sporting multiple bullet works. Today will be her chance to prove whether she is just a “morning
glory.” #1 SNEER has the best dirt form of any participant in this bunch and should be forwardly placed. The
return to a dry surface will help given the quality of her effort two back on a fast strip. #4 THANKFUL is bred
more for dirt than turf and this is a positive move for trainer Todd Pletcher. This gal likely needed a race on
debut and figures to improve today.

Race 2- 1 st #7 VIOLENT DELIGHTS 2 ND #5 INVEST 3 RD #3 PRINCE OF NEW YORK

His camera shyness is an issue but #7 VIOLENT DELIGHTS looms a logical alternative to the untrustworthy
favorite. This gelding failed as the favorite last time when aggressively put into the race and he’ll be in line to
benefit today from a more patient ride. The move being made with #5 INVEST inspires no confidence, as he is
in for a rock bottom claiming price after 4 months of inactivity. There are obviously issues here, and this son of
Super Saver took an appreciable step back despite moving to SGF-1000 paradise off the claim in January. #3
PRINCE OF NEW YORK outfinished the top pick last time out and figures to be the main speed in this heat.
He is dangerous if able to establish command and his trainer showed signs of shaking out of the doldrums last
weekend.

Race 3- 1 st #8 DOROTHY’S STAR 2 ND #2 KOKOPELLI 3 RD #3 JILL’S A HOT MESS

It is nothing but a guessing game and #8 DOROTHY’S STAR seems to be somewhat likable on debut. She is
by freshman sire Exaggerator, who was precocious himself, and is out of a 9x dirt winning mare. She is
training well and this barn can have one ready on debut. #2 KOKOPELLI is a half to NY bred stakes winner
Sioux and hails from a barn that is very good with debuting runners. This filly is by the hottest sire around, Into
Mischief, whose progeny win their 2YO debuts at a 16% clip. #3 JILL’S A HOT MESS is the only entrant with
experience, which often provides a major edge at this stage. She showed zip on debut and tired late, but
having that race behind her should help, and she moves into a very high percentage barn.

Race 4- 1 st #8 MILLS 2 ND #1 CHIEF KNOW IT ALL 3 RD #3 SCARF IT DOWN

#8 MILLS reluctantly gets the nod in a race that offers few interesting participants. He’s first off a claim by a
capable barn and didn’t have the cleanest of trips last time out moving early while wide. A return to what he’s
done best, laying back to make one run, will greatly help his cause. #1 CHIEF KNOW IT ALL was a late
scratch shortly after he was claimed by Luis Miranda in a similar event at Aqueduct. This horse has red flags
everywhere given he’s now with a low percentage trainer after being taken off a high percentage conditioner
one race after a claim put in was voided. His best races win this thing in a canter, but you can’t have any
confidence. #3 SCARF IT DOWN doesn’t appear to be a horse who’ll love 8.5 furlongs, but he is getting more
ground here off short rest. He made a meaningless late move into a race with a huge pace last time and his
running line belies the effort he put forth.

Race 5- 1 ST #7 NICKI DE NEPHEW 2 ND #9 SHIRAZ 3 RD #3 JEROME AVENUE

#7 NICKI DE NEPHEW gets the nod in a race crying out for a stranger. This son of Nicanor has performed
well in NY in the past and returns from a break for a barn that has a couple of wins with turfers off extended
breaks over the last two years, good for a positive ROI. #9 SHIRAZ is the horse to beat, but he never wins
and is now being dangled for a tag again. He has NY bred conditions and is worth the 35k, but you’d have to
teach him how to get to the wire first. That has been a major issue for too long and makes him a bit player. #3
JEROME AVENUE faced significantly tougher competition when he ran on turf in the past. He now changes
surfaces off a claim following a good effort at Aqueduct in late February. The grass could prove greener for
him in here.

Race 6- 1 st #6 NOT SO EASY 2 ND #1 SUMMER TUNE 3 RD #2 SPITBALL

#6 NOT SO EASY is bred to move up on turf and has a race behind him for experience. He is a half to crack
turf sprinter Mr. Gruff and is by useful turf stallion Munnings. This trainer conditioned his dam as well as
Radiant Cut, a sibling who won on the weeds. #1 SUMMER TUNE is by Summer Front, a 14% turf debut sire
and is out of a dam who won on turf. She has dropped two foals to win on turf from as many to try it, and this
gelding couldn’t have caught a softer bunch at this level. #2 SPITBALL is a new gelding for his return to the
races after showing little on debut. Trainer Linda Rice moves him to turf and progeny of City Zip generally
improve on the lawn. If he has more speed from the inside it will greatly help his chances.

Race 7- 1 st #5 WINSTON’S CHANCE 2 ND #6 I LOVE JAXSON 3 RD #1 ITS ALL RELEVANT

#5 WINSTON’S CHANCE always showed ability for a low percentage conditioner based at Finger Lakes and
now makes his 2020 debut for David Donk. This gelding is a steady, one-run type who’ll benefit from any kind
of pace help. The one-turn configuration won’t hurt either as it often compresses the field down the
backstretch. #6 I LOVE JAXSON is the horse to beat given his recent run of 5 wins in 6 starts and he has the
versatility to lay close and prevent #1 ITS ALL RELEVANT from leading them on a merry chase. This veteran
has improved by leaps and bounds for Linda Rice and a repeat of his last two would make him a handy winner
here. The aforementioned ‘Relevant is a one-way speedy type who’ll be on the engine from the start. He put it
all together last time when left alone on the lead and is a threat to do that again if unchallenged early.

Race 8- 1 st #1 MORNING COLORS 2 ND #4 BARREL OF DESTINY 3 RD #9 ASTORIA KITTEN

#1 MORNING COLORS won a stronger than par MSW at Tampa Bay Downs on the Tampa Bay Derby
undercard. She now moves into NY bred company for her first try against winners and catches a soft bunch
for this level. She figures to be in an ideal spot stalking early over a course that played very kindly to
frontrunning types last week. #4 BARREL OF DESTINY goes first off a claim for one of the sharpest around in
this category. Her efforts against 16k sellers in Oldsmar show she’s superior to that bunch and she now
moves back to a class level at which she has previously run well for poorer trainers. #9 ASTORIA KITTEN is
the one to catch as she takes an enormous drop in class for Danny Gargan. She is a frontrunner who’ll be
forwardly placed from the start and her pilot is underrated when it comes to nursing speed horses along.

Race 9- 1 st #5 MORE MISCHIEF 2 ND #2 RATAJKOWSKI 3 RD #3 NO HAYNE NO GAYNE

#5 MORE MISCHIEF elevated her game tremendously in two one mile wins at Aqueduct over the winter. That
was a different horse than what we’d seen before and we’ll see if a little time away brings her back down to
earth in here. #2 RATAJKOWSKI is the one to beat given her strong efforts in this division last year, including
a win in the Empire Distaff. She figures to be on the front end again today and if able to withstand pressure
from the top pick she’ll hold her spot atop this bunch of NY bred females. #3 NO HAYNE NO GAYNE is a
consistent daughter of Grade I winner Haynesfield who has done some of her best work with today’s jockey
aboard. She was no match for ‘Mischief in February but came back with a big effort in open company.

Race 10- 1 st #13 DREAM CHASING 2 ND #2 PIPPI 3 RD #9 FUNNY PURSUIT

#13 DREAM CHASING is the one to beat if able to get in off the AE list. This daughter of Freud gets another
try on the turf against far weaker than she faced last time and gets lasix today. Trainer Christophe Clement is
38% with turf sprinting maidens dropping in for tags ($2.03 ROI). #2 PIPPI is an interesting play given trainer
Bruce Brown wanted to run her on turf in each of her first two starts. Grass was not an option last time and
she fared poorly that afternoon. The inside post and weight break means that she should be aggressively
ridden. #9 FUNNY PURSUIT has a great pedigree for turf being by a solid grass sire but out of a dam who
won 4 times on the lawn. She has produced two turf winners from three to try the surface and this filly showed
real speed in her debut on the dirt.

BELMONT MEET STATS: 90-19-12-11 $120.50