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#1
12-07-2019, 06:22 AM
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Sha Tin (Hong Kong International Races)
Running Saturday night in North America.
Race 4 (Vase): #2 Glory Vase: Generally doesn’t do his best racing off the layoff so not concerned with the mild effort last time. That wasn’t a bad effort though, as it was a leader-dominated race and he did have some traffic problems in the stretch. Only other “poor” recent run was when he was 5th a few starts back after drawing post 18 and finishing his last 600m (~3f) in 33.9. #1 Exultant: Winner of this last year in what turned out to be one of the strongest races of the year. Primed for this third off the layoff but done no favours drawn in post 14. #13 Anthony Van Dyck: Has been a long season for him, but no doubts about his G1 class. #8 Eagle Way: 4th in this last year and has had some excuses in his last few. 7yo can clunk up for a minor share at a price TRI PLAY: 2/1,4,8,13/1,4,7,8,10,11,13,14 ($28) Race 5 (Sprint): #4 Hot King Prawn: Flopped in this race last year as the fav but returned with a strong run off nearly a year layoff. Not too concerned about bouncing as he is 4/4 second off the shelf. Grey can get the perfect trip from post 1 #14 Aethero: Monster 3yo who will be hard to run down if left alone up front. Only two Southern Hemisphere 3yos have ever run in these big HK races, so it’s a big ask to bet him at what may be nearly odds-on. #1 Beat The Clock: Not fully cranked for his return run and gets a 6lbs turn in weights vs #14, but he just never seems to run his best race second off the layoff. Never out of the money in 22 career starts, however. #3 Mr Stunning: Didn’t show much on his return but was drawn wide and left without cover for a moment. Does his best racing second off the layoff and will be an overlay. Wouldn’t leave out #5 (competitive with these last year, carried big weights in his first two starts this year) or #11 (improving, sub 22 second last 200m in his last three starts, had post 14 last time) TRI PLAY: 4,14/1,3,4,14/1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,11,14 ($48) Race 7 (Mile): #3 Persian Knight: Not disgraced when 5th in this last year after being drawn widest. Form has been dirtied up since then by four races longer than a mile. Checked at the start in the Yasuda Kinen in June, leaving him with no hope (he ran 32.7 last 600 meters). Last time again got a bit too far back, rattling home to run third. This is a shorter field, so expect him to be better positioned early. Hard to resist at upwards of 20-1. #1 Beauty Generation: Champ brought down to Earth after losses in his last two leading up to this. Back down to equal weights but the invincibility is gone. #2 Indy Champ: Took out Japan’s two G1 mile events this year, but have to wonder if this was a bit of an afterthought. #9 Admire Mars: Not without a chance if you can overlook his last, which was his only poor run to date. TRI PLAY: 3/1,2,9,10/1,2,4,6,9,10 ($20) Race 8 (Cup): #6 Furore: Last year’s HK Derby winner had some excuses to start this campaign (7f, then caught wide and moved early). Back to form with a strong 2nd to Exultant in the prep and can go one better here. #7 Magic Wand: Globetrotting filly got her G1 last start Down Under but just seems to come up a little short. #2 Rise High: Caught a little wide on the turn second off the layoff last time, but showed a devastating turn of foot in his two prior runs. #8 Edisa: Not been out of the top two since she stepped up in trip, but has to improve to threaten winning here. TRI PLAY: 6/1,2,7,8/ALL ($18) Good luck! 
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