11/3: Churchill Downs ~ Breeders' Cup Saturday

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS ~ BREEDERS CUP


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 Uber Kirk 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Tiz Mischief 3-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Mo's Mojo 5-1 2nd


2nd: Cherokee Run, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

Very nice group including return of Audible and while this is hardly his goal, he's worked well for return and needs to be respected. Super Sol may be emerging for top connections..

Most Likely: #12 Super Sol 4-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Audible 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #8 Kowboy Karma 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Dak Attack 12-1 9th
Super/Hi-5: #10 Aveenu Malcainu 15-1 8th


3rd: BC Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

Marley the first of several favorites on slate that look imposing (and winners) if they run their A races. Golden Mischief avoided top company until last and comes in as a mojo miss for Cox. Finley is less consistent these days but loves this surface and can adjust her style. Highway Star 3rd off break and likes 7/8ths. Shamrock Rose jumped up at KEE in the Raven Run..

Best Value: #5 Golden Mischief 10-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Marley's Freedom 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Finley'sluckycharm 10-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Highway Star 20-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #14 Shamrock Rose 20-1 WON ($53.80)


4th: BC Turf Sprint (G1), 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

World of Trouble was good on the main track but other-worldly with move to lawn and may simply blitz this bunch. But at 15-1, stablemate Vision Perfect has a lot of appeal figuring to get an up-close stalking trip with Castellano. I'm going to hope that those 2 are enough to survive here. There are countless players to feather in, so don't be shy to use as many as you can afford..

Best Value: #4 Vision Perfect 15-1 13th
Next Best: #11 World of Trouble 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Havana Grey 20-1 12th
Super Add: #13 Will Call 20-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #7 Lost Treasure 20-1 7th


5th: BC Dirt Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (P3, DD Jackpot Hi-5)

Seem like many are panning for upset gold here and I'm not convinced it's necessary. Catalina Cruiser & City of Light come in to this with sparkling resumes, sharp worktabs and it feels like one or the other wins the majority of runnings. Firenze Fire is terrific at the one turn mile as evidenced in his Champagne, Jerome & Dwyer wins. Seeking the Soul settled for this spot and a repeat of his Ack Ack makes him a player. Isotherm can boost exotics..

Most Likely: #10 Catalina Cruiser 8-5 6th
Next Best: #1 City of Light 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #7 Firenze Fire 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Seeking the Soul 5-1 2nd
Super/Hi-5: #3 Isotherm 20-1 9th


P5 Grid:

1: 2-6 (A), 5 (B), 1-7-8 (C)
2: 3-12 (A), 8-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
3: 5-13 (A), 11 (B), 10-14 (C)
4: 4-11 (A), - (B), 5-6-8-9 (C)
5: 1-10 (A), - (B), 3-6-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x2x2 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

2: 3-12 (A), 8-9 (B), 2-10 (C)
3: 5-11-13 (A), - (B), 10-14 (C)
4: 4-10-11 (A), - (B), 5-6-8-9 (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 6-7 (B), 3-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x3x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18


6th: BC Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 11f-T (P6, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H: USA (1) vs. Europe (2)

Race starts on the turn which challenges the out-posted and having quality players like Fourstarcrook and Wild Illusion well drawn makes decisions easier. Fourstarcrook is about as plucky a horse as you'll find and can cement her legacy today. Wild Illusion has made a bold impression since arriving. Was looking forward to playing Eziyra, but Dettori will have to be perfect to work out a trip with the Weld miss..

Most Likely: #1 Fourstarcrook 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Wild Illusion 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Sistercharlie 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Super Add: #14 Eziyra 15-1 6th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Magic Wand 5-1 4th


7th: BC Sprint (G1), 3+, 6f (P5, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Have struggled with this race more than any other with an Imperial Hint-Promises Fulfilled confrontation looming. A pace collapse isn't impossible, but the X Y Jet defection took some pressure out of the kettle. Spreading in the last leg of the middle P4 and taking stand that one or the other of the top 2 survive to start the P5..

Best Value: #2 Promises Fulfilled 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Imperial Hint 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Limousine Liberal 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Whitmore 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #6 Always Sunshine 20-1 9th


P4 Grid:

4: 4-11 (A), - (B), 5-6-8-9 (C)
5: 1-10 (A), 3-7 (B), 3-7 (C)
6: 1-3-6 (A), - (B), 10-14 (C)
7: 2-5-8 (A), 1-6-9 (B), 3-4-7 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


8th: BC Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H: USA (1) vs. Europe (2-$19.00)

This race was victimized by the overly ambitious KY state veterinarian who thinks they know Freddy Head's filly better Freddy Head knows her. The forcing of Polydream from the Mile was shameful and stands to have a lasting negative impact for the Cup with International connections. Freddy Head won 2 Miles on Miesque and 3 as the trainer of Goldikova. If a vet thinks that he'd run a compromised Polydream on this stage, they shouldn't be employed by a racing jurisdiction..

As for what's left without Polydream, will spread a bit here and key the ones that are the best price..

Best Value: #7 Expert Eye 8-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #2 Next Shares 10-1 13th
Exotics Use: #14 Mustashry 15-1 11th
Super Add: #3 Happily 15-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Oscar Performance 6-1 14th


9th: BC Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5)

Abel Tasman one of those faves that wins with an "A" race. The question is where she stands coming after the stunning flop in the Zenyatta. Midnight Bisou & Monomoy Girl give you viable alternatives and there are numerous puncher chance options beyond the top 3. Bisou has been consistent, looks to get an advantageous trip and is the most inviting price..

Best Value: #7 Midnight Bisou 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Abel Tasman 7-2 11th
Exotics Use: #11 Monomoy Girl 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Super Add: #1 Champagne Problems 12-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Blue Prize 6-1 4th


2-day DBL:

J-Fillies: 4-10 (A), 1-7 (B), 2-3-8 (C)
Distaff: 2 (A), 1-11 (B), 5-7-10 (C)

$1 DBL (7-11) Paid $23.20


10th: BC Turf (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H: Enable-GB (1-$18.00) vs. the Field (2)

Enable a special filly and faces a Turf field that certainly doesn't look tougher than what she bested in the Arc while less than 100%. Has looked terrific since getting here and handles any king of footing. Waldgeist is the "B" alternative with Robert Bruce and Magical as "C" players..

Most Likely: #2 Enable 1-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #12 Waldgeist 9-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Robert Bruce 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Magical 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Sadler's Joy 30-1 3rd


2-day DBL:

J-Turf: 5-14 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-10-12 (C)
Turf: 2 (A), 4-12 (B), 5-7-11 (C)

$1 DBL (5-2) Paid $12.40


11th: BC Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Jackpot Hi-5, H2H)

H2H: Mendelssohn (1) vs. Thunder Snow (2)

This should be a wildly entertaining edition of the Classic with a perfect variety of styles coming together. I'll continue to use the core five I featured in the Xpressbet Wagering Guide while moving West Coast up into the body of the "A" tabs. Many can win this race and nearly any approach is viable with the pace scenario and adjustments to it being the determinant. It seems implausible that anyone could wire, but any of the vanguard players can succeed if they get comfortable stalking and that includes Accelerate with Rosario providing a template for the voyage Friday on 'wide every step' Game Winner. Collapses have occurred many times in Churchill Classics, so the late chargers figure in to your exotics plays at the very least. Should be a thrilling finish to the 2 day wagerfest. Enjoy!

Most Likely: #6 McKinzie 6-1 12th
Next Best: #11 Mind Your Biscuits 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #7 West Coast 5-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Yoshida 10-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #12 Axelrod 30-1 9th


2-day DBL:

Juvenile: 6-9 (A), 1-8 (B), 2-5-13 (C)
Classic: 6-7-11 (A), - (B), 9-10-14 (C)

$1 DBL (9-14) Paid $21.60


P5 Grid:

7: 2-5 (A), - (B), 1-8-9 (C)
8: 2-7 (A), 3-14 (B), 5-12 (C)
9: 2-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2 (A), - (B), 4-12 (C)
11: 6-7-11 (A), 10-12-14 (B), 1-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x3x1x3 = 36 x .50 = $18


P4 Grid:

8: 2-7 (A), 3-14 (B), 5-12 (C)
9: 2-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-12 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
11: 6-7-11 (A), 10-12-14 (B), 1-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x2x3 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (7/11/2/14,15,16) Paid $157.95


12th: Chilukki (G2), F&M-3+, 1m

Best Value: #1 Moonlit Garden Late SCR
Next Best: #6 Divine Miss Grey 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Shenandoah Queen 7-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Berned 8-1 2nd


P4 Grid:

9: 2-7-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
10: 2-12 (A), - (B), 4-5 (C)
11: 6-7-11 (A), 10-12-14 (B), 1-8-9 (C)
12: 1-6 (A), 3-7 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18

$0.50 Pick-4 (11/2/14,15,16/1,2,5,6) Paid $43.80 x 2 = $87.60


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

CD/BC SCR/CHG'S

[casp0555]

Mr. Freeze is a scratch

[moses]

Thanks Steve. Always appreciate the insights. It’s going to be tough to pass on Whitmore or Limousine Liberal if they go off above 6-1. I don’t see any way Promises Fulfilled doesn’t get bet down. That’s such a tough race.

[tanner12oz]

which of the head 2 head wagers do you think will go off at close to 50/50 odds? I'm trying to scoop some free bonus money today