10/21: Belmont Park (5th-11th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: 42nd Empire Classic H., 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Long time between drinks for Governor Malibu and handicap conditions make him the highweight, but versatile 4yo fits race flow and isn't the favorite. Control Group gets in light and has been steadily improving since mid-summer. Twisted Tom the horse to beat. Hit It Once More rounding back into good form..

Most Likely: #8 Governor Malibu 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Control Group 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Twisted Tom 2-1 WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #5 Hit It Once More 20-1 7th


6th: 21st Sleepy Hollow, 2yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 We Should Talk 5-1: Pro effort in debut; Gets pace to attack; Priced right.. 5th
Next Best: #2 Battle Station 7-2: Brilliant in dirt debut Bongard, must fend off pressure.. 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Big Gemmy 8-1: Returns to own kind/one turn after ambitious Iroquois try.. 2nd
Super Add: #7 Inalienable Rights 6-1: Has done little wrong, 2nd in STK's after debut win.. 3rd


7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f-T (NYRA Bets P5, G/S, P3, DD)

Insanely competitive group with field literally separated by one length on figs based on last turf runs and The Caretaker a mystery player on grass. The Caretaker was headed for turf debut when race came off last October. Dam Safety Net and her full sister Sheer Luck were OK on lawn and Speightstown efficient enough as turf sire. Challenging start to the NYRA Bets P5..

Most Likely: #8 Psychic Energy 3-1 4th
Best Value: #2 The Caretaker 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Discretionary Marq 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Macho Miah 8-1 9th


8th: 40th Hudson H., 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Terrific group for this and don't want to give up on Gold for the King (12-1) yet. Gets back to sprinting and working like a mad horse. No superfecta combination will surprise..

Best Value: #7 Gold for the King 12-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Celtic Chaos 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Ostrolenka 4-1 WON ($11.60)
Super Add: #10 Candid Desire 20-1 7th


9th: 39th Mohawk, 3+, 8.5f--IT (P3, DD)

Top pair may be enough to get through leg in multis, but All Is Number and Cloontia have puncher's chance..

Most Likely: #5 Offering Plan 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Black Tide 2-1 WON ($10.20)
Best Value: #3 All Is Number 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Cloontia 6-1 6th


10th: 4th Empire Distaff, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Verdant Pastures the filly to catch and beat and advancing 3yo Bonita Bianca, perfect at BEL and trip, the one to key at big number..

Best Value: #6 Bonita Bianca 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Verdant Pastures 7-2 WON ($8.10)
Exotics Use: #8 Literata 3-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Five Star Rampage 5-1 5th


11th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T

Smart and Sassy (20-1) the 3yo of Dr. McGlinn's remarkably productive Very Funny who dropped Invading Humor ($500k+) and Distorted Beauty ($400k+). Will put it all together at some point and this isn't a particularly talented group..

Best Value: #7 Smart and Sassy 20-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Cosmoiselle 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Dream Passage 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Way Smart 3-1 WON ($8.70)


P5 Grid:

7: 2-3-8 (A), - (B), 1-4-6-9 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), - (B), 6-8-10 (C)
9: 5-7 (A), 3 (B), 1-2 (C)
10: 4-6 (A), - (B), 1-3-8-9 (C)
11: 3-7 (A), 4-10 (B), 5-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


P4 Grid:

8: 5-6-7 (A), - (B), 4-8-10 (C)
9: 5-7 (A), 3 (B), 1-2-4 (C)
10: 4-6 (A), 8-9 (B), 1-3 (C)
11: 3-7 (A), 4-10 (B), 5-8-9 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x2x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)

$0.50 Pick-4 (6/7/4/4) Paid $248.00


Good luck!
Steve

[Max Caidy]

Great job Steve w Pick 4.

[gamblin4ever]

Nice job Steve.

[Bogey]

Good work Steve!