10/7: Belmont (6th-11th); Keeneland (5th-10th)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Incredible group of serious colts with Janney-Phipps Orb full brother Personal Time leading the charge. Pletcher offers Montauk ($850k Md'O/Indian Vale); KMc sends Shadwell's $575k Labeq (Tapit/Life Is Sweet) and Stonestreet's Power of Attorney (DistHumor/Potesta); 2 from Chad Brown and more..

Most Likely: #6 Allured 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Montauk 3-1 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #10 Personal Time 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 St. Augustine 6-1 4th


7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Power Nap 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Tale of E Dubai 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Story to Tell 3-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Scarly Charly 7-2 4th


8th: 146th Champagne (G1), 2yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Will repeat that I don't get the assertion that the Futurity group at KEE is better than thisset of horses. In addition to the 6 credentialed Saratoga exiters from Pletcher, Brown Servis, McPeek, Englehart & KMc, invaders from Larry Jones (DEL), Tony Farrior (LRL), Eric Guillot (GP), Simon Callaghan (SA) & another from Servis (MTH) spice things up considerably. Honestly wouldn't be surprised by any winner, but take note that Guillot's pair (15-1 Stronger & 20-1 Master Manipulator) are the ONLY runners here that have traveled the 1 turn mile distance on dirt and that the dangerous maniac brought them to Belmont early for sharp :59 (1/21) and :47.2 (2/65) drills respectively. Among the more known quantities, Aveenu Malcainu and Honorable Treasure most visually impressive upstate and presence of MDN Bahamian intrigues given his proximity to Solomani at DMR. Pace looks honest at the very least and potentially hot, so I'm leaning towards some that can stalk and go or pick up pieces. Absolutely terrific race..

Best Value: #3 Stronger 15-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Aveenu Malcainu 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Honorable Treasure 6-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Kowboy Karma 12-1 4th


BEL-KEE P4 Grid:

BEL 8: 3-8-9 (A), 1-6-11 (B), 4-10-12 (C)
KEE 8: 9 (A), 4 (B), 2-7-8 (C)
BEL 10: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)
KEE 9: 4-6-7-10 (A), 3-12 (B), 2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 6x2x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x2x4 = 24 x .50 = $12


9th: 43rd Hill Prince (G3), 3yo, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Frostmourne 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Small Bear 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Bricks and Mortar 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Yoshida 7-2 WON ($10.40)


10th: 99th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)

Much deeper and interesting than anyone expected. Diversify will roll along up front and prove tough to reel in..

Most Likely: #1 Diversify 7-2 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #7 Keen Ice 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Destin 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Pavel 5-2 3rd


11th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T

Most Likely: #4 Minsky Moment 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Red Knight 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #6 Prophet Cat 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Storm Prophet 5-1 6th


P5 Grid:

7: 2-4-8 (A), - (B), 5-6 (C)
8: 3-8 (A), 1-9 (B), 4-6-7-10-11-12 (C)
9: 4 (A), 3-6 (B), 2-8 (C)
10: 1-7 (A), - (B), 4-5-6 (C)
11: 4-7 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x2x1x2x2 = 24 x .50 = $12


P4 Grid:

8: 1-3-8-9 (A), - (B), 4-6-7-10-11-12 (C)
9: 3-4 (A), 2-6-8 (B), 1-5-9 (C)
10: 1-7 (A), 4-6 (B), 2-3-5 (C)
11: 4-7 (A), - (B), 1-6 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x5x4x2 = 160 x .50 = $80
All A's: 4x2x2x2 = $32 ($16 for .50)



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: 21st Woodford (G2), 3+, 5.5f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Conquest Panthera 7-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Hogy 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Mongolian Saturday 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Commend 3-1 6th


6th: 37th TCA (G2), F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Finley'sluckycharm 3-5 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Vertical Oak 5-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Chalon 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Bendable 6-1 4th


7th: 20th First Lady (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Dona Bruja 5-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Roco Rojo 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Dickinson 4-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Delectation 15-1 7th


8th: 104th Breeders' Futurity (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Romans' Free Drop Billy has done little wrong at one turn and is built for routing. Ten City has likable race at the trip..

Most Likely: #9 Free Drop Billy 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #4 Ten City 10-1 DNF-Went wrong
Next Best: #2 Ezmosh 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Bourbon Resolution 8-1 8th


9th: 32nd Shadwell Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Best Value: #6 Ballagh Rocks 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Mondialiste 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Heart to Heart 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Le Ken 30-1 6th


P5 Grid:

5: 1-8 (A), - (B), 3-6 (C)
6: 2-4 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 3-4 (A), 6 (B), 1-2-5-7 (C)
8: 9 (A), - (B), 2-4-7-8 (C)
9: 4-6-7-10 (A), 3-12 (B), 2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 2x4x3x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x2x2x1x4 = 32 x .50 = $16


P4 Grid:

6: 2-4 (A), 1-6 (B), - (C)
7: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 1-2-5-7 (C)
8: 9 (A), 4 (B), 2-7-8 (C)
9: 4-6-7-10 (A), 3-12 (B), 2-8 (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 2x3x1x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)


10th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #7 Grade One 3-1 -
Best Value: #6 Sensational Zip 6-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Curlin's Honor 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Puertorican Style 12-1 -


P4 Grid:

7: 3-4-6 (A), - (B), 2-5-7 (C)
8: 9 (A), 4 (B), 2-7-8 (C)
9: 4-6-7-10 (A), 3-12 (B), 2-8 (C)
10: 6-7 (A), 5-9 (B), 1-14 (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
All A's: 3x1x4x2 = $24 ($12 for .50)


Good luck!
Steve