Derby is rapidly approaching

[JolyB]

All of the preps have been run and the KY Derby field is taking shape. There are still going to be some defections (i.e. Conquest Mo Money will not be supplemented, and it sure sounds as if Cloud Computing might wait until the Preakness), but we have a pretty good handle on who will be running and what the ML will probably look like.

So, the time has come to ask all of you a few questions:

1. Who do you think will be the most likely winner?

2. Who do you think has a good chance of getting a piece of the trifecta at a big price?

3. Which horse do you think has the best chance of performing better than its odds?

4. Finally, since a large part of handicapping the Derby is narrowing the number of horses from which you make a decision, which of the entrants would you refuse to bet no matter what the odds?

Remember, at this stage of the game, there are no wrong opinions.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

1. Classic Empire
2. Hence
3. Tapwrit
4. Gormley, Irap & Fast and Accurate

[ElPrado]

I am in love with a long shot. Hence. I keep remembering getting a couple of horses out of the sky and nailing the winner. I play in a fantasy stable group. It works like an auction. I've nailed the winner several times with horses I've spotted and grabbed to own in my stable. Animal Kingdom was one. I'm getting the same vibes this year.

That answers the top three questions. I'll think about the last one for a while. So far, most of them.

[JolyB]

1. My rooting interest is Irish War Cry; I think he's good enough to win - a little worried about the rather slow finishing time in the Wood, but the track did seem to be playing slowly that day. I just don't trust Classic Empire, especially with the crowds on Derby day. Still vacillating about Always Dreaming - lots to like, but I still have reservations.

2. Gunnevera and Hence seem to have very good chances to hit the exotics, but I don't like either of them on top.

3. Tapwrit has moved up to as much as 25-1 on some projections. I think that he's better than that and just hope that the clunker he threw in the Blue Grass was an aberration.

4. Well, I'll start with the obvious Fast and Accurate. After that, Patch seems to be way over his head. State of Honor has lost ground late in ever one of his route efforts - that's a formula for failure in the Derby. Finally, I don't want any of the runners coming out of the Santa Anita Derby. It's early - this list could grow in the next two weeks.

[DonGuido]

IRISH War Cry . . after that, I dunno. This is not a year of the potential predominant horse we've recently reveled in. American Pharoah where are you??? I'm playing it and capping it straight off the PP's and seeing how the dice rolls this year. Unlike me, little if any emotional ties.

[Plenilune]

Great questions JB. To be honest, I'm more excited about the KY Oaks this year.

1. Who do you think will be the most likely winner? Not sure of likely winner but I want, wish, hope that IWC wins it. I wish he was going to have at least one work over the Churchill track before the race, but hey, I have to trust Motion knows what’s best, right? He prefers to have his horse in a more calm atmosphere pre-KYD, not unlike Casse taking Classic Empire to a more quiet place to train.

2. Who do you think has a good chance of getting a piece of the trifecta at a big price? Hence, Girvin

3. Which horse do you think has the best chance of performing better than its odds? I have no idea, maybe the two listed in question two.

4. Finally, since a large part of handicapping the Derby is narrowing the number of horses from which you make a decision, which of the entrants would you refuse to bet no matter what the odds? All these questions would be easier if we had the post positions already listed, LOL. Classic Empire (my daughter would beat me up for saying that, lol), Patch, a few others. This year’s KYD is so difficult to pick and choose.

I would pose a couple of questions. Is it more exciting and interesting to have a few horses who seem to be a sure shot, or an unpredictably wide open like this year? I like a more narrowed down choice. In a group like this year, are PP’s better or a gut hunch? Going with gut hunch.

[ElPrado]

Sometimes I get hunches, if I do I've learned to listen to them. I have had some big hits at the windows using them. I hit a $400 boxed exacta when 2 horses give me an eye once at TBD. I'm hoping Hence stays healthy this Derby. I also hope he isn't crucified by post position in the Derby. He's my hunch this year.