Churchill Downs Friday May 6th

[Kitan]

Race 1:
#7 Modify: Fav looks the fastest
#6 Linda Mimi
#4 Burma Road
#3 Gurlin

Race 2:
#2 Blast: Finished strongly once Lanerie finally got her to run straight. Best fig came over this track.
#9 Conquest Serenade
#8 Bold Quality
#3 Lady Day Blues

Race 3:
#1 Paid Up Subscriber: Had some excuses in the Stakes tries and can excuse the last as she's not a frontrunner. Won on this day last year.
#5 Contrasting: Will she bounce? Sure looks to have some talent regardless.
#9 Misleading Lady is SCR...
#3 Academic Break
#8 Twenty in One

Race 4:
#6 Smart Emma: Very game in her win, with a strong gallop out, and another who's not best on the lead. Like her to bounce back at a price after a bold move over the surface last week.
#7 Family Tree: Not sure about the two-turns but she does have some class.
#10 Sugar Cone
#4 Firsthand Report: Don't love the pedigree for the distance but may get left alone on the lead.

Race 5:
#5 Tom's d'Etat: Well bred for the turf and sports some solid workouts.
#11 Go Navy Go: Don't think he necessarily needs the lead and was only beaten by a good-looking Casse debutant in a quick time.
#4 Dasaater
#9 Pitch Count
#2...sibs are 1 for 23 in turf routes and Pletcher has poor stats going synth to turf...didn't like this one anyways.

Race 6:
#2 Sheer Drama: Always runs her race and returned as good as every in the Madison.
#6 Engaginglee: It's on the bottom of the form but she has a big time win over the course and distance (coming home in a ridiculous 29 flat for 2.5f). They shouldn't go sprint speed up front so I expect her to be much closer to the pace and have a chance to get first run at a big price.
#1 Curalina: Romped on this day last year but it's a big ask to beat the top pick off an extended layoff.
#7 Theogony is SCR...

Race 7:
#7 Stageplay: Should relish the return to a sprint and may go off at her highest odds to date. Beat "Carina" in their debuts.
#5 Carina Mia: Working lights out but will be a short price and has other speed to deal with.
#4 Put Da Blame On Me: Another whose game looks like sprinting and seems a smart price add underneath at the very least.
#8 Nickname

Race 8:
#4 Rocket Heat: I'd hope Geroux can ration out the speed of #10 a bit better so I don't think they'll go so suicidal up front this time around. He's best at 5f and has had two smart works since remaining in KY.
#2 Summation Time: Other than the two poly tries he doesn't have any bad sprint races on his form. Just wonder if the 5f is long enough.
#6 Alsvid: Quality dirt sprinter but has run well over this course and distance previously.
#11 Something Extra

Race 9:
#10 Midnight Storm is SCR...
#4 Eagle: 4yo has been a steady improver and hit a lifetime high last out. Dangerous if he can repeat that.
#5 Noble Bird: By far his two best runs have been here, but that was a strangely slow work as a prep for this.
#9 Majestic Harbor
#7 Top Billing

Race 10:
#3 Nodiac: Unlike the D'Amato in the previous she didn't ship early but is flying under the radar here and has improved with every start. Extrapolation of that trend gives her a good chance.
#10 Catch a Glimpse: Champ didn't finish with convincing authority and is potentially a bit vulnerable here late.
#4 Auntie Joy: Thought she closed decently against these and will appreciate the extra half furlong.
#7 Outsider Art

Race 11:
#5 Dream Dance: Quite impressive in most of her gallop outs, suggesting the 9f will be right up her wheelhouse. May have "only" won a N1X last out but that wasn't an ordinary event. The second place finisher runs in a G2 earlier on this card and the 3rd place finisher ran in the BC. All over that 30-1 ML.
#2 Weep No More: Hard to take as an underlay but can't argue against anything she's done routing and the extra distance definitely won't hurt.
#14 Taxable: Asmussen's third-stringer based on riders but Smith isn't a bad pick-up. He'll be able to get her into good position from the parking lot draw and she's dangerous at this distance if she continues to improve.
#4 Go Maggie Go
#12 was prepping for a 7f race...

Race 12:
#11 Henry Eight: Henrythenavigator x NZ mare (half to Havelock). Finally has a consistent worktab and the price looks more than right.
#9 Astute Warrior: Dam was stakes placed on the turf. Slow turf work in Florida but they must have seen something to debut him her instead of on the main where he's had two quick moves.
#2 Vagabond Prince
#5 Conquest Stormy
#12...bred to sprint (sire a sprinter, dam SP sprinting, sibs 1/15 routing) so has already outrun his pedigree to an extent but Pletcher is 1/22 (6 ITM) first time blinkers in turf route MSWs. Didn't like this one originally and is hard to play at near odds-on.

Race 13:
#1 Zander Zone
#2 Bankers Holiday
#8 Susan's Reward
#5 Frenchman Bay

$0.60 Early Pick Four
Race 2: 2, 8, 9
Race 3: 1, 5, 8
Race 4: 6, 7
Race 5: 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
$86.40

$0.60 Early Pick Five
Race 3: 1, 5
Race 4: 6, 7
Race 5: 4, 5, 9, 11
Race 6: 2, 6
Race 7: 4, 5, 7
$57.60

$0.60 Middle Pick Four
Race 4: 6, 7, 10
Race 5: 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
Race 6: 1, 2, 6
Race 7: 4, 5, 7
$81.00

$0.60 Late Pick Five
Race 7: 5, 7
Race 8: 2, 4
Race 9: 4, 5, 9
Race 10: 3, 4, 10
Race 11: 2, 5, 14
$64.80

$0.60 Stakes Pick Four
Race 8: 2, 4, 6
Race 9: 4, 5, 9
Race 10: 3, 4, 7, 10
Race 11: 2, 5, 14
$64.80

$0.60 Late Pick Four
Race 10: 1, 3, 4, 7, 10
Race 11: 2, 4, 5, 11, 12, 14
Race 12: 9, 11
Race 13: 1, 2, 8
$108.00

$3 Oaks/Derby Double
Oaks: 2, 4, 5, 14
Derby: 3, 5, 8, 11, 13
$60

Good luck!