7/8 BEL Pick 5 Analysis

[ateamstupid]

1st: I prefer new faces in here as opposed to the horses who have already proven themselves to be slow. #3 Touch of Paradise looked like he might be OK after his first two races, but then came three disastrous route tries, the last of which put him on the shelf for almost six months. He returns with some very snappy works for this barn, drops down and turns back in distance. With the aggressive bug rider in a race lacking clear pace, he looks like a big threat. The issue is he's a West Point horse so if he's live, the whole world will know, but he's an A in the Pick 5. #7 Tharyic was a pretty good closing 3rd in his debut considering how little interest he had early and the fact that he was on his left lead for much of the stretch. He galloped out past the winner and has been gelded since that debut, so perhaps he has his mind on business from the break this time. #4 Cats Landing should benefit from the lack of pace signed on, but he's 0-for-12 now and has to be considered very questionable at seven furlongs, early advantage or no. #1 Fortunate Sky deserves another chance on dirt, as he's a half to a lot of nice dirt sprinters/milers, including Musket Man. He was bet down to 7-4 in a 10-horse field in his debut and was claimed out of it, so this was a horse with some expectations. His two dirt races after that weren't terrible, as he ran on a dead rail in a tough field next out and made a wide close into a slow pace the time after that. His turf race 5/13 wasn't bad, but this is likely his surface and the two grass routes may have served a purpose in giving him some 'bottom'. #2 West Sedona is another intriguing option for Linda Rice. By dirt sprint sire Smoke Glacken out of an unraced Street Cry dam, he puts blinkers on (Rice is 7-for-22 with a $2.43 ROI adding shades since the start of 2014) and is cross-entered as an MTO on Thursday. Didn't do much running in his debut, but I think the figure for that race is a bit low and he rates to improve significantly with several positive angles (turnback, blinkers, 2nd start).

A: 1,2,3,7

2nd: #5 I knewuweretrouble is obviously scary for the potent Riccio/Nevin combo, but she's coming off a 144-day layoff and all her good form has come out of town. #1 Underhill Drive is a player on her Southern California form, but she's been a disappointment since shipping east for Roddy Valente. Still, she's plummeting in class here and could be left alone on the lead. #6 Unrepented was claimed off a sharp bottom-level N2L score and immediately put on the turf in two tough spots. She makes a lot of sense switching back to dirt and dropping for the overdue Greg DiPrima barn and should sit a good trip just outside the speed of the two favorites. I'll back up with #2 Gethot Stayhot, who appears too slow on paper, but switches back to Irad Ortiz for a barn that's been hot all meet.

A: 1,5,6
B: none
C: 2

3rd: Tough to make a real strong case against #2 Ironicus, who will drown this field if he runs back to his Dixie win. He's not without his warts though, as he had to scratch out of the Poker and will likely be against it from a pace perspective in this clear stepping stone to the Fourstardave, but he very likely just has too much class for these. I'll back up with #1A Tetradrachm and #5 North Star Boy, as they have races competitive enough to win if the favorite shows up with a B or C effort.

A: 2
B: none
C: 1,5

4th: #6 Energetico is going to take a lot of money on the drop after running against Speightster last out and perhaps he is lone speed, but his last two races were not good -- he had absolutely no excuse to lose to Warrior's Crown two-back after being afforded the easiest of leads. Of the two favorites, I prefer #4 One More Night. He got a perfect trip to win at 6-5 when dropped in for $20,000 last out by Joe Sharp, but that race has come back live, as the 3rd finisher won with +13 on the Beyer scale next out, last-place runner won at +14 next out, fifth-place finisher was +18 next out, sixth-place finisher was -7 next out but +23 following that. The other two horses haven't run back yet.

A: 4
B: 6
C: 1,5

5th: #11 Sinatra is going to be bet hard dropping once again, but his last two races have been dreadful and that draw going this distance on the inner turf is a big negative. He has to be used, but only defensively as there are a lot of others in here. #1 Dreams Cut Short looks like the play with the snug rail draw on the 50% drop for an owner/trainer desperate to get off the schneid. #2 Rope a Dope is worth using at a big price for Randi Persaud. His race three-back is good enough to contend, then he sped off on Kendrick Carmouche two-back and was wrangled off a slow pace last out. Switch to Cancel and maybe he gets the right trip in between his last two. #3 Sultry Cat makes some sense drawing inside after back-to-back wide trips against better. #7 Heres Johnny ran well first off the layoff when taken too far off the pace at MTH. Not entirely confident Cornelio won't wrangle him back also, but he's a big player. I'm committed to using #8 Best Play, who really has gotten good for Luis Miranda and made a big close last out into a crawling pace. If he gets a little more hitting up front today, he could come calling at a big price.

A: 1,7,8
B: 2,3,11

.50 1,2,3,7/1,5,6/2/4,6/1,2,3,7,8,11 72
.50 1,2,3,7/1,2,5,6/2/4/1,7,8 24
.50 1,2,3,7/1,5,6/1,5/4/1,7,8 36
.50 1,2,3,7/1,5,6/2/1,5/1,7,8 36
168 total
G/L!