6/19 BEL Pick 5 Analysis

[ateamstupid]

Thanks for the kind words yesterday. Let's try to keep it rolling today.

1st: As a value-seeking horseplayer, it's almost mandatory that you bet against horses like #5 Trophee, who has now lost at 9-5, 4-5, 8-5 and 7-5 in her four U.S. races. But money-burner or no, if the half to back-to-back Arc winner Treve runs to her most recent race, she's going to be very tough to handle. She was 2nd behind a very sharp and well-bet winner that day who went wire-to-wire and then came right back to clear her N1X condition in impressive fashion next out. The 3rd and 4th horses also came back to win and Bishop's Pond actually beat three of Trophee's rivals in her maiden breaker with relative ease. That leads me to #2 Castellani, Clement's other horse and the likely 2nd choice. She really was a no-excuse loser last time out, getting a perfect first-run trip and still getting run down late by the aforementioned Bishop's Pond. The good news for her is she has proven early speed and Lord knows they don't like to press frontrunners in turf races around here. #1 Kitzys Rocket showed promise in her first two starts, was disappointing last out, but was likely just too far off a moderate pace to make a real impact. #6 Tizette is a little interesting at a big price, if only because of her big gallop-out after the race on debut. She finished 6 1/2 lengths back at the wire, but was past the winner in just a handful of strides after the line.

2nd: With #5 Tarty to the Party scratched, #8 Colonel Juanita becomes the clear horse to beat. She has the fastest races on paper and gets a good outside draw in a race with no speed signed on. I'll also use #6 Bridget Moloney, who ran OK on the lead going a furlong further than she prefers last out. Although she can win, I'm against #4 My Donna Jean, who drops in claiming price, but will be hurt by the moderate tempo. #7 Trail Walker is not impossible if she can re-find her old speed/form, but her last two races were awful. Can the racing office stop taking the entry of #3 Spa Town Parade? Let her be a pony, since she clearly has no interest in running anymore.

3rd: Good, competitive field where a case can be made for just about everybody. #2 Roman Fire is a big player for Tony Dutrow as the controlling speed from the rail, but he hasn't been seen in 405 days and will be overbet in this solid group. #3 Finn's Quest isn't the winning type and his last two races were weak, but he's got plenty of back races at or above par for this level and will be a big price. #4 Matuszak ran well in winning when dangled for $25k off the layoff by Mott last out. Nobody bit, so Mott jams him back in again for $35k and you have to question whether he'll be able to back that race up, but Mott reaches out to main man Alvarado and it's a positive sign that this ridgling at least showed a little more tactical speed in that win, as he was a total plodder prior to that. #5 Borseggiatore is coming off back-to-back wins and meets a tougher group today, but appears to be improving and turned in a sharp 3-furlong breeze upstate a week ago. #6 Successful Brothers is the horse to beat if he runs back to his last dirt start, when he chased the very talented Zingarelli 3-wide around the track. He does have only two wins and nine runner-up finishes, but he's dangerous switching back to his preferred surface. #1A Identity Crisis backed up a blowout win two back with a very solid 4th in a blanket finish last out. That was likely too short for him and expect Rajiv to use more of his speed on the stretchout to put pressure on the rail horse.

4th: Another spread race in this low-level NY-bred maiden claimer. The horse to beat is.. I guess #2 Devilish Grin? He has (marginally) the fastest races on paper, but he also has a bad habit of breaking poorly and I generally prefer horses with more speed in cheap races like this. #1 Afleet's Edge has that speed and makes some sense for Jason Servis as a first-time gelding. #4 George's Folly has run OK out of town for Ned Allard and is as logical as any in here. #5 Gato Azul faces a much weaker field than in his first two races for the dangerous Guadalupe Preciado, but does have to deal with a 333-day layoff. #6 That's My Buddy is bred both sides for grass and stunk it up over that surface on debut, but has some fast dirt works on the tab and can't be ignored for Asmussen. #7 Fear will be overbet and was a terrible, no-excuse loser at this level last out. I'm inclined to let him beat me. Firster #8 Gazoo is bred both sides to be fast for Gary Gullo, whose barn continues to motor along. Basically, I can make a case for everyone except #3 Chip Chip, so load up on that one to win.

5th: High-quality $40,000 claimers going a mile on turf and the one to deny is the ultra-consistent #3 Upgrade, who continues to run great every time he takes the course at 8 years old. Last time was no different, as he was stuck further off the pace than he usually likes and still made a big run to be 3rd behind All Included, who returned with a respectable 4th in the Poker next out. Two others drop out of that race, #1 Sinistra and #9 Exclusive Strike, and while both obviously have the back form to win this, they both were BAD in that race and I'll pass on them snapping back to form at relatively short prices. #2 Holy Invader has turned his life around since being switched back to grass -- his last two races give him a good shot in here and his low-profile connections will ensure decent odds. The other one I'll use is #10 Helm, who ships back to NY after a rare Golden Gate try for Motion and would be tough if he can run anything close to his 3rd behind Silver Freak last summer at Saratoga. There are definitely others who can win, but if I can get live to 2, 3 and 10 in the Pick 5, I'll live with the results.

5/6,8/ALL/1,2,4,5,6,8/2,3,10 = 108
5/8/1,2,4,6/1,2,4,5,6,8/3 = 12

120 total

G/L!