8/7: Saratoga (Mrs. Phipps; Birdstone)

[Kasept]

SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: Mrs. Phipps, F&M-4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD)

May be opportunity to try to beat 2-1 Kisser N Run here. She came to SAR from Georgia last year on similar trajectory and flopped which may indicate that she isn't right for racetrack chasing. If so, it opens the door for decent exotics..

Best Value: #5 Opera Heroine 4-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Brilliant Match 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Cat Feathers 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Super Add: #2 Secret Reward 10-1 5th


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f (P5, P3, DD)

Considering that everyone says we don't run route races in America, isn't this about the 20th main track mile and an eighth event of the meet? Jimmy Jerkens' maiden winner 3-5 here and not enthralled by Welsch Clocker Note of him lugging out in 8/3 drill..

Most Likely: #1 Star Grazing 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #4 Annie Walker 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Legally Bay 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Desert Valentine LATE SCR

Post Script: I looked it up.. There have been 26 races at 9f already this meet, though 4-5 were off the turf to the main track..


3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Treacherous place for a 'Best Bet' type of designation but Thirst for Glory has appeal as 'shouldn't lose' in here. As such, looks to be ideal key horse with some prices as Pletcher 7-2 Animalia and Brown 5-2 Chief Kitten seem underwhelming while Clement 5-1, Schettino 15-1 and Brown 6-1 as likely for success..

Most Likely: #6 Thirst for Glory 3-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Brother O'Connell 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 G R's Giant 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Startup Nation 6-1 WON ($21.20)


4th: 4th Birdstone, 3+, 14f (P3, DD)

Birdstone certainly deserving of a stake in his honor, but if we're running one at a mile and three quarters, shouldn't it be named for the local record holder at the trip, the great Reigh Count? Will lean on the 8# spread between the top choices..

Best Value: #4 Don Dulce 7-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Micromanage 4-5 WON ($3.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Irsaal 4-1 2nd


5th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Transplendid 3-1 WON ($5.70)
Next Best: #1 Miss Motivation 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 The Lady's Cruisen 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Bi Light of Day 6-1 4th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Faves (1-5-7) are the right horses but Golden Nugget is by sire (Stonesider) whose progeny steadily improve with age and experience. About 3-4 lengths behind the top choices going in and best candidate to boost exotics..

Most Likely: #7 Chrisandlorisposse 2-1 WON ($6.30)
Best Value: #5 Navaho Ca Lo 5-2 5th
Next Best: #1 Q Two 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Golden Nugget 10-1 6th


P5/P4 Grid:

2: 1-4 (A), 3 (B), 2-5-6 (C)
3: 6 (A), 3 (B), 4-8 (C)
4: 4-5 (A), 2 (B), 1-3 (C)
5: 1-3 (A), 5 (B), 9-10 (C)
6: 7 (A), 1-5 (B), 4 (C)

$0.50 Pick 5 (1,6/8/5/3,7,11,12/7) Paid $153.00 (5OF5)
$0.50 Pick 4 (8/5/3,7,11,12/7) Paid $105.12 (4OF4)


7th: NY-MCLM/$40k, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

State breds long on the grass regularly a recipe for boxcars. Nearly all have board-hit potential. Micelli 2nd timer on the lawn No Trespassers feels sneaky in here after significant improvement moving to turf for 4yo debut. More forward progress makes him a contender at a big price. He should float up from that 15-1..

Most Likely: #7 Tenacious Indeed 8-1 4th
Best Value: #5 No Trespassers 15-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Fire Ship 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Kevin's Steel 6-1 6th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (DD)

As in Rumble Doll-Datts Da Boss monster exotics race Sunday, potential here for gonzo closers to scoop 'em up late..

Most Likely: #4 Defiant 7-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Bluegrass Springs 20-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Casa Creek 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Santa Elf 8-1 3rd

.10 SUPER: Key 4 in 1st/2nd with 1-2-3-5-9 ($12)


9th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Ghurair 5-2 WON ($4.10)
Best Value: #4 Two Months Rent 15-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Red Rifle 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Tetradrachm 5-1 3rd


10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T

This lawn dash isn't as hot-blooded up front. Leaders could stay on to the wire..

Most Likely: #7 Rose Quartz 8-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Barrier to Entry 20-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Jenny's Creek 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #11 Home to Carrowkeel 6-1 8th


P4 Grid:

7: 5-7 (A), 6-10 (B), 2-9 (C)
8: 4 (A), 2-9 (B), 3-5 (C)
9: 1 (A), 3-4 (B), 7 (C)
10: 5-7 (A), 3-11 (B), 9-10 (C)


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Should be a cold punch exacta in the 9th for ATR listeners. Chad Brown said #1 Ghurair had a terrible trip in the UN and came back raring to go.
Marcus Vitali couldn't explain #5 Lochte race in the Oceanport other than the only 2 bad races he has ever run were at Mth .

1-5 box

[Kasept]

Phuck. Didn't occur to me this morning, but looking back, singling Ghurair and spreading in the rest of the late quad was very viable. Paid $600+. File under 'You don't have to try to beat every favorite'..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Should be a cold punch exacta in the 9th for ATR listeners. Chad Brown said #1 Ghurair had a terrible trip in the UN and came back raring to go.
Marcus Vitali couldn't explain #5 Lochte race in the Oceanport other than the only 2 bad races he has ever run were at Mth .

1-5 box

Vitale couldn't explain it because saying 'I have trouble keeping Lochte sound' isn't a great answer.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Vitale couldn't explain it because saying 'I have trouble keeping Lochte sound' isn't a great answer.

Maybe but he raced ok today on 2 weeks rest. Really needed him to get through for 2nd.
You are absolutely right. A tremendous P4 payoff when you could easily single Ghurair with confidence and spread around. I basically did that but left out Heart Doctor when I cut the ticket down. Some times(most) it doesn't pay to be cheap.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Vitale couldn't explain it because saying 'I have trouble keeping Lochte sound' isn't a great answer.

Missed that Lochte added an aluminum pad today. There was a tipoff. Got to be on top of everything.